Russia says Syrian rebels might win, page 1

Wow-i thought the Ruskies were in it to help Assad win it but now it seems like they are conceding defeat.


www.reuters.com...

"(Reuters) - Syrian rebels are gaining ground and might win, Russia's Middle East envoy said on Thursday, in the starkest such admission from a major ally of President Bashar al-Assad in 20 months of conflict.

"One must look the facts in the face," Russia's state-run RIA quoted Mikhail Bogdanov as saying. "Unfortunately, the victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be ruled out."

It sounds to me that its not just him (he is a top official) but the Kremlin as well.

"Bogdanov also said Moscow is preparing to evacuate thousands of its citizens from Syria, where nearly two years of violent conflict have killed more than 40,000 people and turned Assad into a global pariah. His statement marks a clear attempt by the Kremlin to begin positioning itself for Assad's eventual defeat at a time when rebels are making significant gains."

www.mercurynews.com...

reply to post by MrSpad

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I'd beg to differ pretty strongly there. There is an enormous strategic interest at stake here and in terms of Russia's ability to project influence and economic power it can't be underestimated.

At present, there isn't a pipeline that runs from the Caspian Sea to the Med as a straight shot. Never has been one. It's a run across a couple nations to get to the Black Sea with Turkey taking it's cut or Iran carries what others may need out to the Persian Gulf for tankers there. Russia draws it's sources from the same puddle of course, but the point is...access to get energy resources OUT of the Caspian region have been long established, rigid and limited.

Iran, Iraq and Syria...just this year...inked the final deal on a 10 Billion dollar natural gas pipeline from the Iranian Caspian energy fields on out to a final terminal in Lebanon by way of Syria. The initial project is national consumption levels to the 3 nations involved plus just a bit for profit out to international shipping in the Med...for now anyway.

How this matters is that Russia has a great deal of it's influence over Europe and it's former possessions tied up in the flow of Natural Gas, of which it's a pretty serious exporter and known reserve location in it's own right. There are a number of media stories anyone can google over the last 10-15 years of Russian flexing it's muscles by playing with the natural gas flow across the Ukraine and/or on into Europe.


Now if one or both of Syria and Iran remain dependent client states of the Russian Federation, then nothing changes and there won't be some big expansion on this first time ever pipeline between the inland Sea and the Med. All remains static. If, however, the West controls BOTH Damascus and Tehran with existing influence in the Iraqi system....well, Putin is looking at a considerably different world in strategic terms ....in about the time it takes to lay the pipe the existing regimes surveyed out and finalized.

reply to post by princeofpeace

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"I believe that the Russians have woken up and are sensing that they have implicated themselves with this regime, but they don't know how to get out," al-Khatib told Reuters. He held them "particularly responsible" for helping Assad with arms but said Moscow need not "lose everything" in Syria if it changed tack.

So, are these people just making crap up? Or have Russia officially stated that they are looking for a way out concerning Assad? Either that or we have some very good mind readers. I understand you didn't mention it, but others seem to think Russia are ready.. I think they are dreaming.

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