In my opinion the most dangerous element of the 2012 prophecies is the survivalists being given an excuse to "mainstream" their crazy. I'm into alternative news and conspiracty theories and love a good apocalypse prophecy. I've been watching the flood of specials on History, Discovery, Travel Channel... everywhere. The most intellectually honest ones point out things like the Solar storms we're due for and how that would effect the power grid. Which is a legitamate concern. HOWEVER, every one of these shows then goes to some no-teeth guy in the woods who is the "leader" of a survivalist community and talk to him like he's an expert on anything other than how to skin a squirrel. Even on Brad Metzler's Decoded they did the guy in the woods bit, and shared meaningful glances while scribbling down notes. Really? You gotta take notes on Cleetus? Anyway, these "experts" all make the same jump in logic that drives me crazy.

If the power goes out... people will come to shoot you.

To me this sounds like giving themselves prior permission to go shoot people themselves. They keep doing this math with water. "After 4 days without water people will start killing eachother and you need the guns to protect yourself."

I'm sorry. I don't buy it. If human beings were built like that we wouldn't still be here today. Look how long the power was out in NY and NJ and how much "civilization" people had lost. What happened? Was there looting? Sure. Were there gangs of killers going around stealing Ramen noodles at gunpoint? No. Even after Katrina, when there were so many false reports of mass murder and rape, it turned out that apart from the looting the stories of the aftermath were about people helping each other out not shooting each other over baby formula. People aren't animals. People have compasion. People help each other. All of them? Maybe not. But most of them do because we're sort of all in the same boat here. Those of us who aren't gun-weilding paranoid sociopaths outnumber those who are... for now.

As we approach 12/21/2012 what I fear most is that all this hype is pushing the "mosty normal" people into the "mostly crazy" range and we may lose our numbers. So, I'm going to stock up on water and canned goods and make sure I have ammo for my rifle, not because I think my neighbor is going to come steal my water, but because I'm afraid the survivalists have too much invested in everything going bitchcakes on 12/21.

Right now, the prophecy is fullfilling itself because of the paranoid survivalists.

I don't think It's the survivalists out in the woods you would need to worry about should such a situation arise.

It's going be gangs, killers, and just people who are holding a grudge that will be taking advantage of the chaos and confusion that will ensue.

I think there will be alot of people like myself holding down their neighborhoods picking off looters.
But if the situation lasts a long time, someone like me, who are not in a position to sustain themselves for more than a month or so...

Well, I will take care of myself, and woe to the person who tries to impede me.

Originally posted by SKMDC1


As we approach 12/21/2012 what I fear most is that all this hype is pushing the "mosty normal" people into the "mostly crazy" range and we may lose our numbers. So, I'm going to stock up on water and canned goods and make sure I have ammo for my rifle, not because I think my neighbor is going to come steal my water, but because I'm afraid the survivalists have too much invested in everything going bitchcakes on 12/21.

So you're calling other people crazy survivalists, because they're planning for a worst case scenario, and you're doing the exact same thing as them by stock piling, and keeping personal protection. You know the only thing separating you from them is your naive opinion of the masses once society collapses. People can, and will do anything to survive once they don't have laws enforced on them, nor any government assistance.

In ending your post saying you will stock up and get a rifle make you one of the ones you say you fear considering that's the reasons for their actions. Paranoia and fear can make man do ugly deeds.

Why would you be worried about the survivalists?
Won't most of them be locked down in wherever they have their stuff, just defending it?
I thought that was the point of all their stockpiling. Never having to leave, taking care of their family, ect?

Like them, it will be the "others" I would be worried about.

Okay guys... show me some proof that within days of a power grid failure society devolves into Conrad's "Lord of the Flies." (And you can't say Conrad's "Lord of the Flies".) I may be naive but I honestly think the majority of humans are decent people who would rather work together share resources and survive as a species rather than Mad Max extras ready to rape and kill as soon as the lights go out.

I also don't buy the line "people will do anything to survive" routine. An animal will do anything to survive. We aren't animals. Why is the Donner Party famous? It's not because it's "what happens" when people are stranded in the middle of nowhere. It's because it's an outlier. An exception. For every Donner Party you've got 10 Shackletons.

My point is... we as a civilization and a species haven't been through a global apocalypse before, obviously. Therefore, the idea that we all turn into "xombies" and eat each other is no more founded than we all turn into mother teresa and sacrifice ourselves for the children to be happy. The truth lies (as it normally does) somewhere between the extremes. Either the catastrophe kills us all instantly or we work together and survive it somehow. I don't see the species that gave us Gershwin's "Rhapsody in Blue" eating itself.

The reason I'm going to provision and stock up is just in case the inmates decide to "help along" the prophecies by turning into actual gangs of murderers. I figure it will take about a month for the sane people to deal with them and then we can all get back to the business of being human.

The Anasazi and canabalism is a "debated" issue and you seem to automatically assume that canabalism = starving people = zombieworld. The evidence of mutilation and canabalism is just as easily explained by religious ritual or eating the flesh of your enemy to gain their power or the Anasazi were invaded and killed by the Olmecs who were rather into canibalism themselves... There's no way to intellectually go from canibalism to end-of-the-world-zombies. You can go the other direction, sure. The Roman Empire, as you pointed out, didn't exactly end in an End of the World type of event. I'm not sure a comparison of the responses of ancient cultures to the fall of empires to how a modern global civilization responds to an 'end of the world' event is apples to apples.

There is no evidence to show how we as a civilization would react to a longterm de-stabilization of our technology and our infrastructure. It's never happened. The closest things are natural disasters that mimic the symptoms of a collapse, but all the evidence there points to people being basically decent and working together. There may very well be some hidden brain operation that triggers the zombie gene in humans when the expected power outage goes from 3 days to forever, but that seems rather unlikely. One of the aspects of humanity that I think gets overlooked in forums like this is a close companion to "people will do anything to survive" which is "people will do anything to help someone else survive."

Hmmm....I think Cletus knows a thing or two about survival that most city folks do not. I don't think it's fair to denigrate the people holed up in the woods. A lot of those people can get a squirrel in the eye at 20 paces and cook it up decently, too. They know the plants in the woods and which to eat, and which to avoid. They have learned how to tell if danger is near based on the song of birds.

Also, the behavior of people is definitely dependant on the situation. A natural disaster is one thing, people know that help will come eventually, and things like electricity, gas, etc., will be restored. So yes, they're going to be helpful with each other, more than harmful, because it is a temporary situation. People can keep it together long enough until the status quo is back to normal.

HOWEVER.....if the SHTF, and it is known that things will not get back to normal in the near term, or maybe never, people will begin to panic in ways that you cannot even imagine. I suppose there'll be pockets of people coorperating together, trying to pool their resources to survive, but we're talking about a bunch of people who come from several generations of spoiled, pampered citizens, who have always had access to food, fresh water, heat, cooling, gasoline, and media sources. Take that away, and their sense of entitlement will become enraged, like a toddler who has a favorite toy removed.

Previous civilizations that have been destroyed were not as electronically dependent, over-fed and spoiled as this one. This is a whole new ball game, OP. Most people barely know how to cook foods from scratch, much less how to grow them, catch meat, skin and cook it, etc.

There is reason to be worried about this particular population if all their comforts, food and toys are taken away from them. If they have no problem stepping over injured people on Black Friday just so they can get a good deal on a flat screen TV, imagine what they'll do to a neighbor that they know has food stored.

Think about it.

If we all spent half as much time and energy trying to make our own neighborhoods and communities a better place to live right now -- for EVERYONE -- as these preppers do preparing the SHTF, the world would already be in a new "golden age."

Living in Arizona, I've met a few "preppers," and I tend to give them wide berth. Anyone actively looking forward to the destruction of the world as we know it, and the deaths of millions of their fellow human beings is possessed of an energy I want nothing to do with. The less we know about each other, the better, IMO.

Originally posted by FissionSurplus
Hmmm....I think Cletus knows a thing or two about survival that most city folks do not. I don't think it's fair to denigrate the people holed up in the woods. A lot of those people can get a squirrel in the eye at 20 paces and cook it up decently, too. They know the plants in the woods and which to eat, and which to avoid. They have learned how to tell if danger is near based on the song of birds.

The survivalist I've met and the ones interviewed on these shows don't strike me as the types that can translate the songs of birds or particularly know the difference between the bad shrooms and good ones. They definitely aren't that elvish. They're more like the Steward of Gondor and Borimir before his heroic epiphany. They think they know what's the "best course of action" because, well they say so and since there's absolutely nothing that's happened in recorded history that's a precedent for the situation they promise is only a few days away, well... who can argue with them? Personally I'm not a "city person" if you mean someone who grew up in an urban area. I grew up in the deep South and spent my life hunting and fishing and I know how to aim and fire a rifle as well as the next man. It seems to me that these people are using apocalypse prophesy to validate a need to prove that their world view is more accurate than others. Which is a story as old as time.

Originally posted by FissionSurplus
Also, the behavior of people is definitely dependant on the situation. A natural disaster is one thing, people know that help will come eventually, and things like electricity, gas, etc., will be restored. So yes, they're going to be helpful with each other, more than harmful, because it is a temporary situation. People can keep it together long enough until the status quo is back to normal.

HOWEVER.....if the SHTF, and it is known that things will not get back to normal in the near term, or maybe never, people will begin to panic in ways that you cannot even imagine. I suppose there'll be pockets of people coorperating together, trying to pool their resources to survive, but we're talking about a bunch of people who come from several generations of spoiled, pampered citizens, who have always had access to food, fresh water, heat, cooling, gasoline, and media sources. Take that away, and their sense of entitlement will become enraged, like a toddler who has a favorite toy removed.

There's a lot of assumptions and value judgement on humanity in all that. First off, no one knows how civilization will respond when the SHTF on that scale. It's never happened before unless the Silurians had an ATS forum back in the day. Secondly, to say several generations are spoiled and pampered and what not strikes me as very naive and bigoted. How old are the guys and girls fighting in Afganistan? What generation mapped the human genome and brought us to the precipice of an NCAA football playoff? Hell, this generation may even find Bigfoot. Generalizations can be made about any generation or group. In my opinion, the Baby Boomers completely #ed all who came after them with their greed and ego. That's probably not fair, but I can write pages on why I think anyone over 50 should STFU about the world.

Originally posted by FissionSurplus
Previous civilizations that have been destroyed were not as electronically dependent, over-fed and spoiled as this one. This is a whole new ball game, OP. Most people barely know how to cook foods from scratch, much less how to grow them, catch meat, skin and cook it, etc.

There is reason to be worried about this particular population if all their comforts, food and toys are taken away from them. If they have no problem stepping over injured people on Black Friday just so they can get a good deal on a flat screen TV, imagine what they'll do to a neighbor that they know has food stored.

Think about it.

We've been in the worst economy in living memory since 2008. More unemployeed than since the great depression, but accross the board crime is down all over the country. Why is it that at this time when people are in the worst situation ever has the crime rate dropped? Why is this generation not killing each other to survive? From what I can tell the only people scared of being shot for their food are people who are in love with the idea of being able to shoot back for a justifiable reason. The growing number of people looking for a reason to use their huntin' skills on something other than squirrels worry me... a lot more than the apocalypse.

Think about it.

Why would anybody want to live through an Apocalyps and its aftermath? That's what I don't understand about the Preppers. Also the ones who are going to hole themselves up have no clue how hard it is to stay confined for months in a small place with other people and no day light. And furthermore, how do preppers know what event is actually going to happen? Some bet on hyperinflation, others on EMF.

The thing about the Doomsday Preppers show, and those like it, is they treat the situation like it's normal. Like these people are making good decisions. At the end of every episode of "Hoarders" they bring out a Psychologist to help the people. I think they should do the same thing with the preppers show, but instead they give them a grade on how "good" they are at their crazy. There was one where they did a "simulation" of the compound being invaded for the sole purpose of seeing how the two youngest kids (they looked to be between 9 and 12) would react to their parents being taken and having guns held to their heads. Tell me that's not sick. Like I said, these people are way more scary than an apocalypse.