South China Sea: The Ignored powder keg?

Special Report

Hello

While most of the Western world has been focused on the Iranian, Israeli/Palestinian and Syrian dramas. The other side of the globe has been heating up and is seemingly getting worse by the day. Here we have several countries maneuvering their forces over a location which has been the focus of their consternation for some time and now it seems to be inching even closer to a confrontation.

Map of the disputed area

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d68b38b991d2.gif[/atsimg]


You'll notice the claims overlap with some countries claims appear to be more reasonable and realistic than others. The area in question seems to be rich in Natural resources. So it is becoming obvious that this potential powder keg is another resource grab buy the regions PTB.

Let's start with a recent article...


China sounds clear warning over South China Sea

In the evolving story of the South China Sea - now an issue with broadening international dimensions - the events of the past few days are potentially highly significant

The importance of reports from Hainan that provincial officials have passed new regulations to govern the halting and boarding of foreign ships in disputed waters should not be underestimated. While the details have still to be fleshed out, they play on the worst fears of rival claimants in the South China Sea, as well as the US and its allies Japan and South Korea, both of whom rely on the sea's strategic shipping lanes. Not surprisingly, the reports have set off alarms in the wider region and Washington itself.

So here we have China freeing up their side to seize, board and search vessels in the disputed area. Which would most likely be the other players in this unfolding drams. Countries like Vietnam...

A New Dispute Flares Over South China Sea

BEIJING — China and two of its neighbors, Vietnam and India, were locked in a new dispute on Tuesday over energy exploration in the South China Sea, a signal that Beijing plans to continue its hard line in the increasingly contentious waterway.

Vietnam accused a Chinese fishing boat of cutting a seismic cable attached to one of its vessels exploring for oil and gas near the Gulf of Tonkin, an act apparently designed to inhibit Vietnam from pursuing energy deposits.

In retaliation, Vietnam said Tuesday that it would launch new patrols, which would include marine police, to guard against increasing encroachment by Chinese fishing boats in the South China Sea

Also...

Vietnam Adds Sea Patrols Amid Tensions With China

Vietnam is adding new patrols to protect its fishing grounds in the South China Sea after the country's state-run energy giant accused Chinese vessels of sabotaging one of its boats in the disputed waters

State media said Tuesday the "maritime surveillance force" will have the authority to arrest crews and impose fines on foreign vessels within Vietnam's declared exclusive 370-kilometer economic zone. It will be deployed on January 25.

It comes a day after PetroVietnam said several Chinese fishing vessels cut the cables of one of its exploration vessels in the South China Sea last week. The state-run company said it later repaired the cable, but called the act a "blatant violation of Vietnamese waters."

So, There we have Vietnam's angle and reaction to the growing situation. Here we have a report about another Country's response and potential involvement...

Indian navy ready to set sail to South China Sea

India will deploy warships to the South China Sea if the country’s regional interests are compromised, the Indian Navy commander said. As China bolsters its military, the region has witnessed rising tensions over unresolved territorial disputes.

­India is not directly involved in any of the disputes, but its national interests are tied to the turbulent region, Admiral D K Joshi said on Monday, a day ahead of India’s Navy Day. Delhi may deploy its forces to the region if the situation deteriorates.

“Are we preparing for it? Are we having exercises of that nature? The short answer is 'Yes,'” Joshi said.

India’s prime concerns in the dispute are freedom of navigation for all countries, and the extraction of oil by a subsidiary of the Indian Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONSC) off the Vietnamese coast, he explained.

So now India is warming up their forces and demonstrating their willingness to protect the water ways which is in their national interest to do so. This comes on the heals of yet another country mobilizing their naval forces so as to also show a willingness to defend their interests as well...

Japan displays naval muscle amid islands strife (VIDEO)

A graceful yet compellingly powerful Japanese armada has embellished the country’s Sagami Bay, showcasing the latest firepower of seabound warfare.

­The tri-annual fleet review conducted special military maneuvers with more than 8,000 troops spread over 36 vessels.

Boasting an advanced Aegis radar system, new conventionally powered submarines and high-speed hovercrafts, the navy launched rockets and flares to enhance its overall display of power.

Over three dozen planes flew the friendly skies of the turbulent waters off the Japanese coast.

Tokyo is currently embroiled in a standoff with Beijing and Taiwan over a disputed chain of mineral-rich islands in the East China Sea, which each nation claims as its own.

Now with China demonstrating recently that they have achieved the ability to launch and receive aircraft from their newly refurbished Aircraft Carrier it seems they are signalling they will not be undermined in their drive to claim and dominated the region.


China Aircraft Carrier Style!

Two months after China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning was commissioned, and a year and a half after it began sea trials, an Chinese J-15 fighter became the first known fixed wing aircraft to take off from and land on it. Footage of the occasion aired on CCTV over the weekend shows the fighter jet, tail-hook clearly visible, successfully catching the arrestor wire on the deck of the Liaoning before coming to a stop and being directed to a designated location for technical checks. The video subsequently shows footage of the aircraft preparing for flight and flying off the end of Liaoning’s ski jump deck.

Once again, China has exceeded the expectations of many foreign observers regarding timelines for military capabilities development, though the tremendous publicity the event has received could limit the country’s ability to move with such speed in developing its aircraft carrier going forward.

And finally...

The US with allies in the region and major business dealings with China have been trying to walk the line...


US to China: Avoid provocative action on South China sea

Washington: Concerned over China’s hostile stance with regards to its claims over disputed territory in South China Sea, the US has urged Beijing and other countries in the region to avoid any kind of provocative or unilateral action that raises tension in the region.

“Our position remains that all concerned parties should avoid any kind of provocative or unilateral action that can raise tensions or undermine the prospect for a negotiated solution. That’s the message that we’re giving the Chinese privately as well,” State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters here.

The US is monitoring the situation and is in touch with the Chinese foreign ministry, she said. The Pentagon reiterated its call for peaceful resolution of disputes and freedom of navigation in international waters.

So while most of the Western world is focused on the ME. The South China Sea question is heating up and most involved do not seem to either want to negotiate nor compromise.

Thoughts?

I would probably hesitate to call it a powder keg. World War originating in the Middle East is far more likely. There hasn't been the same level of volatility in the SCS recently.

But it's definitely worth watching, and it is under the radar. I'm just not sure there is the same level of devotion to a violent cause, or as heated rivalries.

Japan and China do have a history, and there have been some territory disputes, but I'd be really surprised if the situation escalates. India doesn't strike me as much a threat...it seems like any war breaking out would be involving Chinese aggression..

I wonder if some small Chinese aggression would be treated with a weak response similar to in World War 2 with Hitler...A lot of people would be afraid of starting a major war with China, I could see an appeasement policy.

As I type this and think about it, maybe it is a bit of a powder keg. It's nearly impossible to but a finger on China and predict what they will do.

reply to post by SLAYER69


No nation in their right mind would dare to get into it with China, including the United States. China and Russia know that they can easily take over the world if they wanted to and they would not waste time with the minor squabbles in that area. China dominates this sea and they know it, Korea or Japan can't do anything about it other than flex their muscles while they do exercises with American naval ships which only pisses China off more which is not a good thing. They are all sitting ducks.

***SNIP***

There is a reason people are ignoring it sir, and that is because the only powder kegs Right now are the European economy and the Middle east which obviously includes the Persian Gulf.


Mod Edit: ALL MEMBERS: We expect civility and decorum within all topics - Please Review This Link.

I have never seen anything like these events going on today, are we seeing Mayan warnings coming true? why are so many countries falling out with each other? should we feel safe? because I feel as safe here as I would in a plane with no engines turned on at 20,000 feet.

reply to post by real_one


You badly misinformed I assure you a nation that just landed one plane on one aircraft carrier does not have the US shaking in its boots. Neither does Russia with its antiquated arsenal. Russia and China are not friends. They are together for checks and balances only.

Neither of them together or apart would be able to take the US down yet. Money wont be an issue when the bullets start flying. We are built and trained in international warfare. We are all over the globe you've seen the maps. They wouldn't make it to the mainland and even if they did they wouldn't be in any type of shape to take over anything.

If they didn't have nukes they would be assimilated by now, and if they ever use a nuke then everyone is assured destruction. Only way the US goes down is through implosion, and we can do that all by our lonesome

No nation in their right mind would dare to get into it with China, including the United States. China and Russia know that they can easily take over the world if they wanted to and they would not waste time with the minor squabbles in that area.

Would China risk losing its biggest consumer, and cash cow over the South China sea?

Would the US do anything other than bow to China and risk the trillions we borrow from them?

Are the right questions.

What happens in the South China Sea it will go unchallenged.

I have to admit Slayer, I am much more concerned with this part of the world than I am about the middle east.With two nuclear nations involved and other countries allied with nuclear nations this could turn nasty real quick. Not to mention that India and China are the most populous nations on the planet and they share a border. I'm not very confident that a small incident will not escalate almost immediately to a larger conflict.

I to, have been watching this part of the world.I think there is more potential for a large problem here. These areas have been disputed for many years and now that they all know about the resources there,they're all jockeying for position.

This could have the potential to draw us in,we have treaties with Tiawan and Japan. I'm not sure about the other countries. I don't think that SEATO which was NATO's asian counterpart is in effect anymore. If it is that could lead to our involvment as well.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Slayer ! What's up Scro ?

I thought one of the last things history would ever see is China wanting anything to do with Japan ever again.



China must be feeling beyond cocky.

reply to post by randyvs


We kind of neutered Japans military gung-ho post WWII. In the meantime China went from being a disorganized nation to being one of the two most powerful military forceson Earth.

It's kind of like that kid you beat up in ninth grade, who was short and scrawny - and then he shows up to your 25 year reunion and is 6'8" and a solid 270.

Yeah. Japan needs to stay sober and leave the reunion early - otherwise it's all going to get ugly.

Another side note? When Japan looks at it's big buddy, the US, and says "Dude, China is all up in my grill - do something!". The US is going to have to say "Umm. sorry bud. But I owe China a LOT of money. You're on your own bro..."

~Heff

reply to post by Hefficide


I was not

a bully

in school Heff !

Any way I definitely see your point and that was at least a generation ago. So that's time enough for memory of misery to fade for sure. Mainly pointing out how ungodly brutal the Japanese were to resident china.
Total rape and pillage mentality. And that was only if you were young and beautiful. Old and ugly, males and children ? Bury em !

No no no don't shoot them first ! What happens when you run out of boetts ?

The US is still far to dominate at sea in region for anything to really kick off. The USN would step in and everyone would have no choice but to back off. So long as the US continues to completely dominate the sea lanes then nothing to big can grow from it. It is also in nobodys interest for anything to kick off. Those sea lanes being free and clear are vital to China survival.

china has historicly not fared too well in conflicts with vietnam or india(more so in ancient times) for that matter

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org... to be fair the chinese did far better in this border skirmish then against Vietnam

every one seems to just look at it as only being the united states russia and china as the top dogs but often india gets left out and they are a densely populated and relatively advanced military and one of a handful of nations that field carriers

and underestimating a country(vietnam) that succeeded in removing the united states and the peoples reupublic of china's military's from their country is never wise

Originally posted by neo96

No nation in their right mind would dare to get into it with China, including the United States. China and Russia know that they can easily take over the world if they wanted to and they would not waste time with the minor squabbles in that area.

Would China risk losing its biggest consumer, and cash cow over the South China sea?

Would the US do anything other than bow to China and risk the trillions we borrow from them?

Are the right questions.

What happens in the South China Sea it will go unchallenged.

I am wondering if Japan will be willing to change its Constitution, and rebuild its Army/Navy.
If that happens, it would spell War in that area. I dont think China would even consider for a second, not to attack first.

No matter which way one slices it.
This situation will be in the news in a growing manner.
All in involved have too much to lose.


Stay tuned.

Originally posted by Hefficide

Another side note? When Japan looks at it's big buddy, the US, and says "Dude, China is all up in my grill - do something!". The US is going to have to say "Umm. sorry bud. But I owe China a LOT of money. You're on your own bro..."

Funny you say that. Japan is "owed" just as much, I believe...........

reply to post by sonnny1

I am wondering if Japan will be willing to change its Constitution, and rebuild its Army/Navy.

I don't know there has been talk in the past about that, there has been talk about going nuclear, but it's just that talk.

After 60 years of outsourcing their national security, like a lot of people these days like what was already said "Japan is pretty much on their own".

Hell they will prolly run to the UN like everyone does telling China to behave,

Japan is a de facto nuclear power. They need not run to anyone if they decide not to.

reply to post by SLAYER69

Now this is interesting to me for a few reason's but one in particular; I met a fellow a few month's back who came in to purchase a auto from me, in the rapport building phase I became aware that he was as some say "awake" or more so than most.
Over the next couple of week's we talked about thing's in common, what each thought, etc. Well seem's he is friend's with a small group of fellow's who "know" people, yeah we all do, lol and.........you ready, one of his contact's know's someone who is FBI, CIA, DOD, POP, DOA, whatever, again don't we all.

Well thing is he told me some thing's to watch for, nothing big but stuff that I was hearing nowhere else for sure and I be danged but it turned out to be just as he said, certain announcement's on a local level he knew a month before any rumor at all much less a media disclosure of any kind.

On or around 1st of Oct. we were talking and I said "you know, this ME situation is gonna start WW3. He replied immediately that wasn't a worry at all, that China was going to invade Japan sometime right around end March or 1st. of April, 2013 over disputed territory, I looked at him with a blank as he explained just enough that it made sense and that I could see as how it would bring us into as well as the ruskie's.

I saw him just Mon. he was just passing through and he was a different person, quiet with a concerned resolve about him, unlike his normally outgoing, gregarious, smiling self. I asked him just before he left if evrything was o.k., his reply was level and serious;" The timeline on China going at it with Japan has most likely changed, they are saying they are going to do it by the 23rd. of this mo." I watched as he left feeling very uneasy.

Now I know I am some person on a conspiracy site who knows someone who knows someone who say's it's coming and this is how it's gonna play, lol, and I agree with you but I heard thing's from this man that materialized and he told me of this situation in beginning of Oct. I have heard this no where beside him untill now on this site, just throwing this in..................it's got me creeped out a bit

reply to post by SLAYER69


It most certainly is a powder keg.

China has no right to claim those seas. International law should be stopping them from encroaching on those waters but resources are important, and obviously there are some good ones in and around those islands if China is so willing to break international law to claim that area.

Also, China and India already have a testy relationship. India are trying to investigate China's use of flying robot men in Indian Himalayan territory (not joking) and now they're going to flex their muscle in this dispute as well.

China will back down, eventually, but not without a fight.

reply to post by LightAssassin

International law should be stopping them from encroaching on those waters but resources are important, and obviously there are some good ones in and around those islands if China is so willing to break international law to claim that area.

International law I don't think international law can stop a major country from doing what it wants. China has the might and until some other country steps up to the plate and confront China, I don't see China slowing down.