Astrophysicist Predicts X-Flare Similar to Carrington Event on 12/18/12 that will hit Earth 12/21/12

reply to post by stereologist


Really? NASA says otherwise in this NASA paper.

NASA states there IS a link between planetary alignments and solar flares!

Cycles of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter alignment were found to have an 11- or 22-year period (refs. 4 and 5). This suggests the possibility of a resonance between the sunspot cycle and the planet alignment cycle. Increased radio and x-ray emissions were observed when the planets were aligned during the 2-month period leading to the large sunspot groups or major solar flares (ref. 6). This suggests a possible thermal effect in the development of tides on the solar surface. Correlation between the position of sunspots at their first appearance and the heliocentric longitude of Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter has been noted (ref. 7).

If it is true, then the unpredictable solar activity could be related to the predictable planet positions, and the capacity of solar activity and space weather forecasts would be increased.

reply to post by Jeremiah65


Solar flares ARE predictable!

Prudue University - New System Could Predict Solar Flares

August 13, 2012 New system could predict solar flares, give advance warning WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Researchers may have discovered a new method to predict solar flares more than a day before they occur, providing advance warning to help protect satellites, power grids and astronauts from potentially dangerous radiation. The system works by measuring differences in gamma radiation emitted when atoms in radioactive elements "decay," or lose energy. This rate of decay is widely believed to be constant, but recent findings challenge that long-accepted rule.

Space Today - Solar Flares Can Be Predicted More Accurately

Reinard and her team found that sound waves recorded from more than 1,000 sunspot regions reveal disruptions in the sun’s interior magnetic loops that predict a solar flare. They found the same pattern in region after region: magnetic twisting that tightened to the breaking point, burst into a large flare, and vanished. They established that the pattern could be used as a reliable tool for predicting a solar flare. Read more: www.universetoday.com...

reply to post by curiouswa

NASA says otherwise in this NASA paper.

No. Not NASA, Ching-Cheh Hung. He claims a correlation based on historical data but correlation does not imply causation. His model is also a bit more complex than a simple "alignment" such as presented in the OP. It would be interesting to see follow up work on his theory to see how well it works with real predictions rather than statistical analysis of previous cycles.

reply to post by curiouswa

Solar flares ARE predictable!

Perhaps. That first method is highly speculative. The second is a bit more feasible.
A day or so ahead of time and not based on "alignments".

This guy has a series of videos saying thebarcarollers planetary alignment charts are wrong



So, who is right?
Is thebarcarollers actually an Astrophysicist?
I have no idea of who or what dazzathecameraman is.

reply to post by JiggyPotamus

I think there is enough evidence to suggest that planetary alignments can have affects on other planetary bodies. We know for a fact that earthquake activity increases during certain alignments, and I would not doubt that a solar flare could be released due to the changing gravity and orientation of the elements reacting inside the sun. That is not to say it is fact, but it is at least possible. However, there is not really any point attempting to scare everyone with talk of doom, as what will happen will happen. Some people will choose to prepare for a certain type of event, others for just about any type of disaster, and then some will not prepare at all. Who is correct?

Actually, we know for a fact that planetary alignments have NO effect on quakes. We know for a fact that the Sun has no effect on quakes.

reply to post by curiouswa


You want facts when the original statement was nothing more unsubstantiated claims prefixed with the word fact?

The fact is that there are plenty of phonies that make ridiculous, often downright stupid stories up. They present no facts or basis for their claims. Then when someone cries foul there is a response of show us your facts.

Sorry the onus is on the original claimant to provide the facts.

So please show us the facts that planetary alignments are nothing more than the play things of the astrologer or other charlatans.

reply to post by curiouswa

He's not an astrologer himself, he's an astrophysicist. He consults with other professionals for a full discussion.

This person may bestow any fake label on themselves they want. Only sillies like astrologers pretend alignments are important or have any effects.

reply to post by curiouswa

2 Min Observers on You Tube just did a video today where he interviewed 3 scientists on The Electric Universe.

Ancient human history depicts pictures of humans with electricity near them and there are "Gods" that they speak about who threw electric poles to the earth. These scientists think the sky has NOT been unchanged for 5,000 years. They state when you look back through ancient drawings and legends, there is evidence worldwide that the Sun was perturbed and something rained from the skies.

Most interesting is towards the end of the video, they talk about all leading scientists who agree the Sun is reacting to a force (that is known, but not talked about).

Thanks for pointing out another sham.

The EU is a pseudoscience idea that has no merits. The universe is shaped by gravity not the EM force.

When people use their interpretation of ancient art to substantiate their idea you can be pretty sure that the story they are telling is a hoax. These people often misrepresent art where the information is known.

When videos tell you something vague like all leading scientists without naming them you are supposed to burst into laughter. When they tell you that these unnamed scientists know something they are not talking about you are supposed to slap your thigh and laugh even harder.

reply to post by AfterInfinity


Ahmen

reply to post by curiouswa

Your reasoning is elementary, thus, The Electric Universe is what is the cause.

The solar system is shaped by gravity. That has been proved countless times.

A trivial portion of the mass of the solar system is affected by EM forces.

The EU is an idea that deserves to be in the trash bin.

reply to post by curiouswa


In this paper the conclusions state:

In view of the statistics and the issues presented and discussed in this report, one must acknowledge
the possibility that some type of tide-solar activity relation may truly exist, despite the widely accepted
thought that believes otherwise.

Further theoretical, instrumental, and statistical investigation is needed before there can be a final
confirmation of the apparent relations observed in this research.

The author makes it very clear in the conclusions that this data does not prove anything. Rather it suggests something that should be studied.

That is the way science works. An initial study is performed. If something pops up suggesting a larger study should be done then that can be followed up.

reply to post by curiouswa


You are wrong to state that solar events are predictable. These are things that suggest it might be possible. There is nothing definite here. Lots of suggestions are made. They are like cancer cures. Some methods work and some don't. It takes a while to figure out what works.

What is being stated here is akin to claiming that car accidents are predictable by hanging a microphone over big cities. When the volume of noise increases then cars crashes are likely to happen.

Why do you say astrophysicist in the title when this is what the Youtube links for contact information?

Astrologer Contact Information
Alandra - [email protected]
Phillippa - [email protected]

www.youtube.com...

Can you provide a link that verifies that claim?
Thanks,

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by curiouswa

 

Your reasoning is elementary, thus, The Electric Universe is what is the cause.

The solar system is shaped by gravity. That has been proved countless times.

A trivial portion of the mass of the solar system is affected by EM forces.

The EU is an idea that deserves to be in the trash bin.

It is kind of funny that the weakest force is what is attributed to the shaping of the solar system. I think that in the near future people will be laughing at our "knowledge" of the universe, just like we laughed at school when we found out people believed the Earth was flat and the Sun orbited us!

reply to post by curiouswa


Only a day or two in advance. They can look at a sunspot and detect the climbing beta-gamma and can get a pretty good idea if it is getting ready to pop. They cannot predict an eruption 3 + weeks in advance.

You do understand that sunspot generation is completely random correct? Once one forms,they can observe the build up of energies and can get fairly close on when it will erupt into a flare and possible CME. The sun is going to rotate many times before 12-18 or 12-21 and even if a big sunspot were to start forming today, there is no predicting it would still be there or pointing at earth on that date...

It's called bunk...

reply to post by superman2012

It is kind of funny that the weakest force is what is attributed to the shaping of the solar system. I think that in the near future people will be laughing at our "knowledge" of the universe, just like we laughed at school when we found out people believed the Earth was flat and the Sun orbited us!

People still say that the Sun orbits us. You probably do. You say the sun rises and the sun sets. I doubt you say that the Earth rotated so as to hide the Sun from my perspective.

A flat Earth is still used in construction. Surveyors do not have to consider the curvature of the Earth when laying out a construction site. A flat Earth model was recognized as incorrect when people began to travel.

There are 4 known forces. Two are restricted to the nucleus of atoms. Those forces do not affect the universe. The EM and gravity forces do affect the universe. Although weaker, gravity is additive. EM has forces that can cancel each other. Gravity does not cancel.

Gravitational models of the solar system predict the paths of objects in the solar system with incredible accuracy. The EU is unable to do this. It fails miserably. There is a huge body of evidence that gravity shapes the universe.

Simply scoffing about the well established facts by pointing out something that predated science makes no sense.

reply to post by stereologist


Relax tough guy, I was merely making an observation that gravity is the weakest force and I find it amazing that it is held as the primary force for holding the solar system together/us on Earth.

I expect our descendants to look at the way we think and what we know to be "true" and laugh as we did.

To say that the sun rises in the East and sets in the West does not mean that anyone believes that to be true, it is merely based on the observers perspective and saying it simply.

I wasn't scoffing at well established facts, I was merely presenting a talking point that you took personally for some reason.

PS- Science is old. Talking about the past wrong theories, does not "predate science".

reply to post by watchitburn


Actually...there may very well be a way to predict something like this.... There have been studies that show solar activity affects radioactive decay rates and they're now taking down all the info they have to see whether or not these variable rates can be used to predict such a thing as a solar flare...

A2D

reply to post by Asktheanimals


He lists the astrologers he consults, but he states HIS background is not that of an astrologer.

I cited his work and original videos!

Astrophysicists defined as follows:

astrophysics (ās'trō-fĭz'ĭks) Pronunciation Key The branch of astronomy that deals with the physical and chemical processes that occur in stars, galaxies, and interstellar space. Astrophysics deals with the structure and evolution of stars, the properties of interstellar space and its interactions with systems of stars, and with the structure and dynamics of clusters of stars such as galaxies.

definition of astrophysics