Astrophysicist Predicts X-Flare Similar to Carrington Event on 12/18/12 that will hit Earth 12/21/12, page 3


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reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 11:39 AM by curiouswa
reply to post by flexy123



Read the data before responding. You make no sense otherwise.


reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 11:44 AM by VeritasAequitas
reply to post by Phage



Okey, glad we could agree on that so we can put it behind us.


reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 11:49 AM by Phage
reply to post by curiouswa


Not a "Harvard Study", it's from India. But...
Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0
A correlation is found when an earthquake sometimes follows a flare within a range of 10-100 hours? Shower syndrome.

Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude.
They then hand pick 50 of those "correlations" to study in detail?

Sorry. Not a lot to go on.



That second article is interesting but it is not talking about a causal relationship between solar activity and earthquakes. It is talking about the fact that statistically both seem to follow the same sort of semirandom patterns and therefore may be caused by the same underlying phenomenon, a build up then release of pressure. In the case of solar activity it would be the release of magnetic forces. In the case of earthquakes, tectonic forces.
Here we present evidence that the same empirical laws widely accepted in seismology characterize, surprisingly, also the size and time occurrence of solar flares. In particular
the same temporal clustering holds both for earthquake, where it is known as the Omori law, and solar flare catalogues: a mainflare triggers a sequence of afterflares.


It is about using this as a possible way of predicting solar activity.
This could greatly improve the prediction of violent space weather and the understanding of the physical processes behind solar events.

arxiv.org...
edit on 12/1/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 11:54 AM by curiouswa
reply to post by Batfink420



That's exactly the point made here. Our power grid system is vulnerable to a few events that will disable it for an unknown period of time.


reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 02:33 PM by Char-Lee
reply to post by curiouswa



I am assuming if there is no spots earth facing the flare would not be earth directed and I believe there is no way to predict where the solar spots will be.


reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 03:08 PM by mwood
reply to post by curiouswa



That's all good but I am pretty sure there is no way to predict solar flares. You can chart activity and possibly predict times of more or less activity but to say you can predict a flare is stretching it.

And even if the sun gave off an extremely strong flare it still has to be "aimed" at the earth and hit it. There are many, many flares that go off into space.



reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 05:32 PM by JiggyPotamus
Unfortunately, there are natural phenomena that occur all the time, but we have yet to devise a way to measure them, if we even know about them. From a scientific standpoint at least. Science is great in its methodology, because of what it has done for us, but it is rather flawed when it comes to other aspects of our natural world.

I think there is enough evidence to suggest that planetary alignments can have affects on other planetary bodies. We know for a fact that earthquake activity increases during certain alignments, and I would not doubt that a solar flare could be released due to the changing gravity and orientation of the elements reacting inside the sun. That is not to say it is fact, but it is at least possible. However, there is not really any point attempting to scare everyone with talk of doom, as what will happen will happen. Some people will choose to prepare for a certain type of event, others for just about any type of disaster, and then some will not prepare at all. Who is correct?

If nothing happens, it is the person who prepped who looks foolish, as they have wasted much time and money for basically no reason. Some may disagree however. But on the other hand, if something does happen, the preppers are still going to look stupid because everyone is going to come after them...lol, just kidding. I think it is fine to prepare for any type of disaster, but as far as a solar flare, there are way worse things that could happen. Civilization has endured for how long now without technology?


reply posted on 1-12-2012 @ 06:43 PM by MrConspiracy
reply to post by watchitburn



We can barely predict the "11 year cycle"

This was from science.nasa.gov in 2006...
"I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011." "...a storm is coming"

Turns our things aren't what they were expecting as we head in to 2013 with no sign of any real solar maximum
edit on 1-12-2012 by MrConspiracy because: (no reason given)

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