Originally posted by Jeremiah65
reply to post by kozmo
You are entitled to that opinion based on the info you are able to secure. I don't generally trust any of the "media releases" as all the info is
cooked to generate a pre-determined response. Sometimes it is to create enthusiasm and other sources to generate despair...
I never mentioned the unemployment numbers thank you very much...everyone knows those numbers are screwed. But the 3 million jobs I mentioned are not
retail sales...they are "skilled" jobs that are going unfilled..and as you say...have for years. People are going to trade and tech schools to
learn how to do them. Whether there is aid for them or not is irrelevant. If you want to get somewhere, you have to invest in yourself. If you are
waiting for a white knight to ride up and throw an education and a better standard of living at you...you are an idiot...not going to happen.
My main opinion is based on what I see around me. How people are living and shopping...
I see housing prices raising and on the markets shorter amounts of time. I see more work coming across my desk than I have in the last 4 years.
People spent more on "Black Friday" than they have in years...another positive indicator.
I also believe, you get exactly what you expect to get. If you expect to fail at something...I can almost promise that you will.
I was trying to give the OP a positive view from where I sit. You can wallow in depression and misery if you wish, but I have lots of work and lots
of prospects for more work and that makes me a happy person.
You are seeing what you want to see.
Yes the housing prices are going up in some markets, but it is again investors buying and they are bidding up the prices in the mistaken belief that
the economy is just about to turn, and because they feel with the interest rates as low as they are that real estate is a good buy. The FED is buying
a ton of MBS garbage to supposedly not inflate with their newly created money, and in the same process help keep the banks operating. Just because
the money is being artificially pumped into housing does not mean there is any real recovery in demand.
As for retail, any supposed strength that has been reported is all anecdotal. None of the true numbers are known until the companies report their
earnings. Recent history suggests black friday sales are always over estimated initially.
Overall employment as a percentage of the population has not improved at all, and the amount of welfare spending has gone way up.
The fundamental reason the economy sucks is there is too much debt outstanding at every level, individual, corporate, local government and federal
government. The overall debt in the system has actually INCREASED since 2008, much of what has defaulted was bought by the FED and has been forced on
the tax payers.
The economy is not going to recover as long as the excessive debt is out there, payments on that debt is destroying the ability to invest in starting
and growing business. Low interest rates remove savers ability to grow their savings which is what stimulates the economy.
It's not wallowing in depression to look at the facts. They are not pretty. Nothing has been done to fix what happened in 2008. The banks are
still incredibly unstable and can easily bring the economy down. They are leveraged at insane ratios of 30 to 1 and more. The derivatives
outstanding have increased. The federal government is now 5 trillion more in debt and has the fed buying 75% of all the debt it issues because no one
else wants it. That means soon there will be no more ability to run a deficit - when that happens POOF 15% of our GDP goes bye bye. None of the
stimulus has done anything to spur the economy.
Economic power is based on what a population produces in goods and services and materials. The amount of currency that represents that production is
meaningless, its overall value is based on that production and the ability for that production to be taxed.
This country is less productive today than it was five years ago, and there is no reason to think that is going to change anytime soon. Manufacturing
can be done cheaper elsewhere, those jobs aren't coming back. Our education system is deteriorating, and other countries systems are improving.
This means our share of future innovation is going to be less. Then there is the ever increasing dependence on government handouts, and our aging
I can't see a single reason to be optimistic.