Originally posted by Jeremiah65
reply to post by RocksFromSpace
Sorry to hear that bud. I am also in business but in a completely different field. From where I sit, I am seeing things look up in big ways and if I
understand markets, it is only a matter of time until you will see it in the merchandise and retail ends...so don't give up hope just yet.
Jewelry and such are generally going to do much better when people feel more comfortable and have disposable income. For the last few years, the
average person has been bombarded with negativity and because of that, they are holding on to their money.
But there are a couple positive indicators that the MSM doesn't talk much about.
Sorry to be a downer, but I need to correct your assertions on economic improvement.
First, housing prices... Like the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the books are cooked. The BLS hides unemployment by simply dropping people from
the rolls and claiming that they've "Stopped looking for work" and are not counted as part of the work force - which is utter crap! The Case-Shiller
Index does the same thing. It stopped taking into account housing stock reclaimed by the banks. As a result, short-sales and foreclosures are only
included if a third-party buyer is involved. The bank-short sales are not counted, making the numbers look better. Add those back in and home sale
prices are actually continuing on a downward trend.
The majority of those 3 million jobs you refer to are low-wage positions. Yes, there are still areas where there is a demand for certain skills,
however there is almost no assistance for those willing to get an education to retrain themselves. As a result, you can expect most of those
positions to remain unfilled, as they have for the past 5 years!
The stock market looks good because the banks - who won't lend! - are putting the federal government's largesse into stocks and bonds artificially
propping up the market. This is due in large to the fact that the change in rules for banks requires that they hold more in deposits versus loans.
Ergo, more investing, less lending! That means less money in circulation to even stimulate economic activity.
GDP is keeping pace with inflation - there is no REAL growth. In fact, once you correct the BS formula that tracks inflation (They're removed food,
medical and utilities from the formula), the economy is still contracting.
Next, I don't know who the "many" are that think the economy is going to magically spring back to life in Q1 of 2013 - the Obama voters maybe??? - but
most economists agree that there aren't a whole lot of positive economic indicators. In fact, consumer spending is down dramatically! And banks...
they're not lending!
I'm continually surprised by people who still believe that economic prosperity is right around the corner. Where do you all buy your Kool-Aid???
Obamacare is set to bankrupt a whole lot of employers or require them to cut back on employment dramatically. Every medium-sized business has just
been DIS-incentivized to grow lest they be saddled with this egregious burden. Tax rates will increase for the majority of the EMPLOYER class,
causing them to reign in spending and investment. Obama is planning on reducing payments to doctors and hospitals for Medicare/Medicaid - that is his
solution to cutting spending! You can't simply decide to pay someone less for their services and expect them to continue to offer those services at a
loss. We're seeing it already with massive numbers of doctors and hospitals no longer accepting Medicare/Medicaid patients and others simply leaving
the field altogether.
Nope, things are poised to get FAR worse than they are now.