How bad is the economy..Let me tell you , page 1

reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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Sorry to hear about your struggles. It's the new reality for sure. I had a 10yr marketing consultancy business back in 2007 when the government/wall street asshats tanked the economy. Several of my larger clients were retail chains and ad agencies. Within a year clients were forced into bankruptcy or huge contractions of their businesses. I watched my annual revenue go fomr about a half-million down to around$12k. In a span of abut 18mos I was out-of-business and unable to fid a job. We came that close to losing our house. I was putting diesel into our oil tank 5gal at a time to keep minimal heat on in the house.

What frosts my ass the most was the Spring 2008 pronouncement by then President Bush and candidate John McCain that 'the fundamentals of the economy were souond'. I figured, well hey, maybe I can weather this storm. Yea right... fundamentally sound my ass. Then I watched everyone getting huge bailouts for their screw-ups and we were left swinging in the breeze. I feel for you my friend. I'm impressed you made it through the crap-storm this long.

BTW, are you on eBay?

reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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I am so sorry you are having such a hard time, but hey do like some people do in my neck of the woods, most of the gas stations are run by the same family from India, when they face hard times they just close the stores fall for bankruptcy and open again on different names in the same family, it seems to work for them because they are still in businesses, I guess here in my state the small business loans for this type of local business favor minorities.

Still you are not alone, I have many friends with local small businesses and they were very taken by the fact that black Friday was so not as what they were expecting this year compare to last year.

I don't shop on black Friday never, but I love the after Christams sales.

reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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Sorry to hear that bud. I am also in business but in a completely different field. From where I sit, I am seeing things look up in big ways and if I understand markets, it is only a matter of time until you will see it in the merchandise and retail ends...so don't give up hope just yet.

Jewelry and such are generally going to do much better when people feel more comfortable and have disposable income. For the last few years, the average person has been bombarded with negativity and because of that, they are holding on to their money.

But there are a couple positive indicators that the MSM doesn't talk much about.

The housing prices in most areas are starting to squeak up a little.

There are more help wanted ads. There is something like 3 million decent paying, unfilled jobs. They say it is because of skills and education, but people are starting to do things about that. If I understand correctly, trade school and tech school enrollment is up...this is a good thing.

The stock market continues to be good, bobbling at or near the highest levels ever.

The GDP is still growing in a positive direction at +2%. That is not where we would like to see it, but it is far-far better than retraction.

Interest rates are still very low. If you have the credit rating, now is the time to borrow capitol for any start up businesses or expansions. It won't stay this low if the economy suddenly springs to life in the first quarter of 2013...as many think it will.

Just a few things. Don't be hard on yourself and don't give in to despair. You made it through the dark night and dawn is coming...hang in there!

Originally posted by Jeremiah65
reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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Sorry to hear that bud. I am also in business but in a completely different field. From where I sit, I am seeing things look up in big ways and if I understand markets, it is only a matter of time until you will see it in the merchandise and retail ends...so don't give up hope just yet.

Jewelry and such are generally going to do much better when people feel more comfortable and have disposable income. For the last few years, the average person has been bombarded with negativity and because of that, they are holding on to their money.

But there are a couple positive indicators that the MSM doesn't talk much about.

Sorry to be a downer, but I need to correct your assertions on economic improvement.

First, housing prices... Like the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the books are cooked. The BLS hides unemployment by simply dropping people from the rolls and claiming that they've "Stopped looking for work" and are not counted as part of the work force - which is utter crap! The Case-Shiller Index does the same thing. It stopped taking into account housing stock reclaimed by the banks. As a result, short-sales and foreclosures are only included if a third-party buyer is involved. The bank-short sales are not counted, making the numbers look better. Add those back in and home sale prices are actually continuing on a downward trend.

The majority of those 3 million jobs you refer to are low-wage positions. Yes, there are still areas where there is a demand for certain skills, however there is almost no assistance for those willing to get an education to retrain themselves. As a result, you can expect most of those positions to remain unfilled, as they have for the past 5 years!

The stock market looks good because the banks - who won't lend! - are putting the federal government's largesse into stocks and bonds artificially propping up the market. This is due in large to the fact that the change in rules for banks requires that they hold more in deposits versus loans. Ergo, more investing, less lending! That means less money in circulation to even stimulate economic activity.

GDP is keeping pace with inflation - there is no REAL growth. In fact, once you correct the BS formula that tracks inflation (They're removed food, medical and utilities from the formula), the economy is still contracting.

Next, I don't know who the "many" are that think the economy is going to magically spring back to life in Q1 of 2013 - the Obama voters maybe??? - but most economists agree that there aren't a whole lot of positive economic indicators. In fact, consumer spending is down dramatically! And banks... they're not lending!

I'm continually surprised by people who still believe that economic prosperity is right around the corner. Where do you all buy your Kool-Aid??? Obamacare is set to bankrupt a whole lot of employers or require them to cut back on employment dramatically. Every medium-sized business has just been DIS-incentivized to grow lest they be saddled with this egregious burden. Tax rates will increase for the majority of the EMPLOYER class, causing them to reign in spending and investment. Obama is planning on reducing payments to doctors and hospitals for Medicare/Medicaid - that is his solution to cutting spending! You can't simply decide to pay someone less for their services and expect them to continue to offer those services at a loss. We're seeing it already with massive numbers of doctors and hospitals no longer accepting Medicare/Medicaid patients and others simply leaving the field altogether.

Nope, things are poised to get FAR worse than they are now.

reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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How unfair that you had this dream and built up this business with sound business practices, only to have it fade from fruition due to reckless governing beyond the scope of your influence.

I knew the TV newscasters were lying to me last Monday. I could tell by the desperate way they kept repeating over and over again, their hollow message. Basically the gist of it was: "Despite the economy, people came out in record numbers on Black Friday, and online sales for Monday hit record high..." They used this sound bite during commercials before the news came on, and they used it during the news to say, "Later in our show..." and "When we come back from commercial break..."

Seriously, I heard the exact same sound bite 6 or 8 times in one hour. The actual 'news story' about it only lasted about 30 seconds, but the message was thrown at the public repeatedly and I know why. Because it is a LIE but they WISH it were true. They think if they can convince the listeners that everybody else is out there spending money like no tomorrow, then all listeners will jump online or in the car and shop like crazy.

That said, I wish that would happen to your business- people shop like crazy at it, but I just was saying you confirmed that the newscasters were desperately lying. I rarely watch the news. Unless I want to know what the sheeple are being fed.

Best of luck!

reply to post by kozmo

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You are entitled to that opinion based on the info you are able to secure. I don't generally trust any of the "media releases" as all the info is cooked to generate a pre-determined response. Sometimes it is to create enthusiasm and other sources to generate despair...

I never mentioned the unemployment numbers thank you very much...everyone knows those numbers are screwed. But the 3 million jobs I mentioned are not retail sales...they are "skilled" jobs that are going unfilled..and as you say...have for years. People are going to trade and tech schools to learn how to do them. Whether there is aid for them or not is irrelevant. If you want to get somewhere, you have to invest in yourself. If you are waiting for a white knight to ride up and throw an education and a better standard of living at you...you are an idiot...not going to happen.

My main opinion is based on what I see around me. How people are living and shopping...

I see housing prices raising and on the markets shorter amounts of time. I see more work coming across my desk than I have in the last 4 years. People spent more on "Black Friday" than they have in years...another positive indicator.

I also believe, you get exactly what you expect to get. If you expect to fail at something...I can almost promise that you will.

I was trying to give the OP a positive view from where I sit. You can wallow in depression and misery if you wish, but I have lots of work and lots of prospects for more work and that makes me a happy person.

Originally posted by Jeremiah65
reply to post by kozmo

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You are entitled to that opinion based on the info you are able to secure. I don't generally trust any of the "media releases" as all the info is cooked to generate a pre-determined response. Sometimes it is to create enthusiasm and other sources to generate despair...

I never mentioned the unemployment numbers thank you very much...everyone knows those numbers are screwed. But the 3 million jobs I mentioned are not retail sales...they are "skilled" jobs that are going unfilled..and as you say...have for years. People are going to trade and tech schools to learn how to do them. Whether there is aid for them or not is irrelevant. If you want to get somewhere, you have to invest in yourself. If you are waiting for a white knight to ride up and throw an education and a better standard of living at you...you are an idiot...not going to happen.

My main opinion is based on what I see around me. How people are living and shopping...

I see housing prices raising and on the markets shorter amounts of time. I see more work coming across my desk than I have in the last 4 years. People spent more on "Black Friday" than they have in years...another positive indicator.

I also believe, you get exactly what you expect to get. If you expect to fail at something...I can almost promise that you will.

I was trying to give the OP a positive view from where I sit. You can wallow in depression and misery if you wish, but I have lots of work and lots of prospects for more work and that makes me a happy person.

Sure, SOME jobs fields are doing better but the vast majority are not- Also, it is very "area dependent" (i.e. the 7th best place to find work in the nation is Ann Arbor Michigan but the rest of the State is in ruins. 30 miles away in Jackson Wal mart isnt even hiring for Holiday help.)

The Job I (hopefully) will get is at a Shipping Yard. They are obviously doing quite well in this area since they hiring people and offering damn good money- I could start at around $16/hour (which is insanely good to start) with guaranteed overtime. What are they Shipping? hell, I have no clue because people here are not buying or selling or producing very much but evidently they have a boom in Shipping- Personally I could care if I get the job.

Overall the jobs that are created are either highly skilled (like the ones in Ann Arbor which are going to many foreigners) or very low end. At least in my area.

BUT- If you are willing to pack up and move (we are) you are correct that there are places with more work than people. It just sucks to have to lose your home and leave the City/Town you love to move a place you really do not want to go just to find work.

reply to post by Jeremiah65

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Jeremiah,

I understand and respect what you were attempting to accomplish with your post. I feel for the OP as I am a small business owner as well. My business is going quite well, but only because I possess a skill in a niche business that has high demand.

All of that said, your PERSONAL experience doesn't mirror the bigger picture. Whereas there are pockets of success (You and I both fortunate enough to be in them), they are not consistent with what the majority of Americans are experiencing.

You can look up all of the evidence I've cited - it is easily found. Take the time to look at the BDI (Baltic Dry Index). This has been an economic indicator used by the worlds largest and most successful investment houses for decades. BDI tracks the shipping rates for goods and raw materials around the world and it is at it's lowest point ever and still in decline! This index indicates what economic activity will look like in 6 to 12 months - and it's not good.

When looking at what the government is doing, or not doing, to aid in the economic expansion you will see a very scary picture emerge. I have several rather large clients who have told me confidentially that they will need to curtail expenses in 2013 to prepare for the healthcare mandate, the tax increases to be imposed in 2013 and the increased regulatory burdens placed upon them.

I am a realist who attempts to use empirical evidence to measure how the economy is performing. The data is not good when one takes the time to look beyond the smoke and mirrors used to distort reality. The best thing we can all do is to keep our chins up and fight hard every single day to make today better than yesterday. I wish everyone all the best during these difficult times.

reply to post by RocksFromSpace

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Here's an idea, kinda weird.....

Have you targeted schools? We are preparing for a study on rocks and minerals next month, and I would LOVE to have a piece of a meteorite to show my students. I think you'd be surprised at how many teachers would feel the same.

Is there a way you can show your wares at your area schools? Maybe an email campaign with samples? I'm not a business person, but it seems worth a shot.

Could you U2U me your website address? I'll pass it on to the teachers I know and my bro-in-law, who's a huge geologist and loves all things rocky.

Hugs to you,
Smylee

reply to post by kozmo

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Thankyou for not making me type all that! I totally agree. I also hear that the banks are only reporting their assets and hiding their liabilities! Yes it is far worse then any of us can imagine! I don't see interest rates ever increasing
because of the detrimental effects it would have on the US interest rates on monies borrowed by the federal government! I also see bond rates will soon be tanking causing another downgrade in the US credit rating but only if the federal government allows Moodys and S&P to report this, which i doubt! People that actually believe the economy is coming back and spending are the only reason why things are not worse right now but the truth is food prices are about to go through the roof especially meat because of all the drought in the west and feed prices increasing cattle owners were forced to slaughter their cattle keeping the cost of meat down but now that has ended we will see meat increase in cost! This will cause people to supplement with other foods causing those prices to rise! I can go on telling you people more and more bad news but why bother! We are about to see a very serious depression happen probably over a very short time! Causing credit to contract, more banks will go under and marshal law will happen as a result of food riots due to asterity measures! how long this will take may be months, weeks or a year! Maybe december 21st will be nothing to laugh at anymore! God help us it looks like the end may finally be here! Sorry for the mela-drama butn i could not resist.

reply to post by oper8zhin

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Even if I were SUPER WEALTHY and ran out of things to spend money on, I think I would honestly buy a left-handed screw-driver (totally useless) or a bucket of smelly armpits (for the laughter) before I bought some meteorite jewelery

That was flat out mean and ugly.....

As a small business owner myself, I could never be that crude to another business owner.

I understand the point you were getting at but you could have been a little more tactful.
Just saying.......

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