What Percent of ATS Members believe that the U.S. has recovered E.T. Craft and Tech? [results], page 29


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reply posted on 30-11-2012 @ 02:04 PM by TauCetixeta
reply to post by Lucas73



The old NASA space shuttles have been moved into museums. I wonder what the next
generation of space shuttles will look like? Maybe they will transport us to the moon.
We already have a cool spaceport in New Mexico.
Spaceport America



reply posted on 30-11-2012 @ 02:27 PM by framedragged
Originally posted by CudiTheKid


Who knows how many alien races there could be, or how long they've been around, or how close to us they are. We can't determine the odds without that information. If there are many races, who have been around a long time, eventually they would have stumbled upon us.
edit on 30-11-2012 by CudiTheKid because: (no reason given)


You're right, we can't determine the odds without that information. We can, however, determine the odds of how likely that information is to be true. The number density of stars ranges from 1/cubic parsec nearby to ~50,000/cubic parsec in the galactic center. If they have just 'stumbled' upon us randomly then there's at least some number of them incredibly nearby or there's a huge number of them far away who've been around for an astronomically long time. The first assumption seems fairly unlikely based on the numbers given above. The numbers suggest that it is very likely that there are a huge number of them, but only if one goes far beyond the solar neighborhood. The second assumption does not seem at all likely due to the fact that the probability of catastrophic galactic events skyrockets with time.

In other words, they could be here, but only if there were at least some nearby in the first place, or a lot of very old ones far away. But there simply is not much nearby and getting to be that old is a feat in and of itself.

Originally posted by Tajlakz



You only need one more post to u2u


I figured it was 20 or so, didn't want to just make a 20th post just so I could send one. This should work though.

Turns out I have read a fair number of truth1k's posts. I'd more or less glazed over them because it seemed like Bedlam was schooling him on certain things but I've quickly changing my stance. Oddly enough the HED thread has been one of my favorites for a long time. But I'm really glad you pointed me to the Dulce threads
edit on 30-11-2012 by framedragged because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 30-11-2012 @ 03:05 PM by RP2SticksOfDynamite
Originally posted by TauCetixeta
reply to
post by Lucas73



The old NASA space shuttles have been moved into museums. I wonder what the next
generation of space shuttles will look like? Maybe they will transport us to the moon.
We already have a cool spaceport in New Mexico.
Spaceport America


The silent anti-gravity electromagnetic warp driven chevron shaped spaceship!!! You only retire your farraries if you have something thats well tried and tested and much better!!!
edit on 30-11-2012 by RP2SticksOfDynamite because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 30-11-2012 @ 03:18 PM by Bedlam
Originally posted by framedragged
Turns out I have read a fair number of truth1k's posts. I'd more or less glazed over them because it seemed like Bedlam was schooling him on certain things but I've quickly changing my stance. Oddly enough the HED thread has been one of my favorites for a long time. But I'm really glad you pointed me to the Dulce threads


Truth's strengths lay in other directions, but he knew a lot of people and had a good memory for stories.

There's just so many issues - not sure how you quantify any of it. One, how much older are any of the stars in the local group that can support life? Noting that it'll have to be an Earth-like planet, since the stories rarely seem to involve environmental suits or, oddly, non-anthropomorphic aliens.

As you say, either they have to be really close, or really old. It takes a long time to search every likely star for life. And what's the average lifetime of a race? They'd have to be old enough to develop FTL, but young enough not to be extinct. They'd have to be adventurous, which we are but you couldn't expect every race to be, and curious, same argument, and willing to expend a lot of resources on nothing but exploration. But somehow vulnerable to lightning. (?)

And, on top of which, your technology would have to be understandable to a vacuum tube technology. Seriously, the transistors we use today would not be something you could look at and directly re-engineer to...a point contact transistor.

Now, oddly, a point contact transistor is very VERY close to a point contact diode, with a few changes. And we were using those in radar receivers before Roswell. Heck, there was a big push to develop better silicon for better radar diodes. You can, in fact, turn an old point contact diode into a point contact transistor if you've got the right sort of wire and a steady hand.

Personally, I'd bet if you got out there, you'd find a lot of Mars-y planets with no real atmosphere, or planets something like Earth but with reducing atmospheres where chlorophyll never was evolved, or maybe old oxygen atmo worlds where everyone is...gone. Maybe you'd find nothing but cliff dwellings and adobe huts, and you'd never be sure if it was intelligent life that just liked mud huts or some sort of bower-bird critter that built mud dwellings out of instinct.

What you wouldn't run into would be planets full of humans with head or nose lumps that speak English.
edit on 30-11-2012 by Bedlam because: (no reason given)

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