Welcome to what should be an interesting debate between PatrickGarrow17 and I.
I say an interesting debate since the subject itself, while being very serious, is wall plastered with various possibilities, some are fictionous and funny and some are...well...deadly. Would humans outlive planet Earth? As my esteemed opponent has already mentioned, this is a highly speculative topic but as I hold the “con” position, I will try to demonstrate that odds are not in our favor. Actually, as I will show, humankind probably won’t survive those odds!
Thank you to PatrickGarrow17 for elegantly launching the match and, as always, my deepest thanks to moderators and viewers for making this board an all time favorite! Hope you enjoy!
Humanity Will Survive Longer Than Earth – The Odds
My esteemed opponent has brought forward four distinct possibilities, and I quote:
1. Humanity goes extinct before ever living off our Earth.
2. Humanity is able to develop communities in space, but they all also die before Earth disappears.
3. A steller/galactic event causes both Earth and humanity to perish simultaneously.
4. Humanity develops habitats off of space, which continue to prosper after the Earth is gone.
As Patrick tends to believe in the #4 scenario (a 25% chance of survival according to this quote), I will show you that the answer most probably resides in #1, Humanity goes extinct before ever living off our Earth, and that our chances are way slimmer than 25%, if existent at all.
On the other hand, the second, third and fourth scenarios – which are also viable - would leave us millenniums to work with but anyone looking around, reading on our current status of affairs and scientific essays would easily conclude that we have already passed a very dangerous line, a dangerous mark, a point of no return. It is not a comfortable position that I sit on but we must face facts.
An extinction level event is a catastrophic occurrence which has the potential to terminate entire species of animals and plants: eg, to cause a mass extinction. Such events are decidedly rare, but geological evidence shows that they have happened on many occasions since multicellular life became abundant on the planet almost a billion years ago.
Yes, we are animals. To think otherwise is not only arrogant but dangerous. Our biased superiority issues over the animal kingdom and the natural flow of this planet will be our downfall. We’re already on that slide, and have been for a while.
Odds of going extinct are overwhelmingly elaborate. Multiple scenarios vary from serious degradation of our climate to not so serious alien invasions. Nuclear annihilation is a very serious nightmare and a bodily planetary impact, although being minimal statistically, is nevertheless a very serious threat. Who hasn’t heard the saying “It’s not a matter of if, but when...”.
I admit that I like my esteemed opponent’s optimism that we could leave earth before something happens but as I mentioned, odds are not in our favor. I personally (simply my opinion) believe that we do not have the luxury of millenniums to get it together but the ongoing countdown has a few hundred years left, max.
Talking of opinions, there are scientists out there that believe that we have already entered the process of a sixth extinction event. Chances are that they know what they’re talking about.
Today, many scientists think the evidence indicates a sixth mass extinction is under way. The blame for this one, perhaps the fastest in Earth's history, falls firmly on the shoulders of humans.
Within the second post, I will extrapolate on the strongest possibilities:
No need to say that those are extremely fatal possibilities, where odds are the highest and the risk is already severe.
But nothing comes close, statistically, to this one – the evidence suggested by scientists - , which you will get to read about, in my third and final post:
The symptoms are already there. The planet is coughing and is about to get feverish. Evidence is all over the place, worldwide, and I will show it to you. Statistically, by the year 2100, a mere 88 years away, half the animal, floral and sea life will have disappeared. How long before it gets to us humans?
The answer to this question is not fun but a reality just the same.
Not. Long. Enough.
Thank you for reading. Back to you, kind Sir !