Update on US Weather: El Nino is Now ENSO-Neutral

Hello all,

Back in October, I posted that we were in a weak El Nino pattern, which looked good for increased moisture for areas of the US which were previously drought-stricken. www.abovetopsecret.com...

However, since before Halloween, our weather out here in west Texas has been, for the most part, above average in temperatures, and way below average in terms of precipitation. Because the El Nino was quite weak, I thought I would check out what the weather prognosticators are saying now.

It appears that El Nino has gone away, and we are now in an "ENSO-Neutral" pattern.

To explain:

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

And what is ENSO?

ENSO stands for El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.

ibid

Please see my original thread for pics and explanations of the various effects on our weather, particularly for the winter season.

The weather watchers now predict the following likely conditions for various parts of the US:

I can tell you with confidence we are not going to a have a snow drought like last winter...Even with the current trend of a neutral or weak El Nino we'll still have more snow than last winter in many places.

From there it will depend on many factors from the WestcCoast storm track to a consistent NAO (North American Oscillation) Negative or even Neutral Phase. Some of this may sound foreign to you but here is how it works in the weather forecasting world.

RIGHT NOW...

We are going with a 60% chance of an average to above average snowfall in Boston Hartford New York City Philly Baltimore Washington DC.

We are going with a 51% chance of below normal snowfall for the upper Midwest including Chicago Minneapolis Milwaukee St Louis.

We are going with a 65% chance of below normal precip and above normal temps for the desert southwest including Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, El Paso, Amarillo, Yuma, and Lubbock TX.

We are going with a 67% chance of above average snowfall and below normal temps in the Northeast including Buffalo, Rochester, Cleveland, Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Binghamton and Springfield MA.

We are going with a 52% chance of above average snowfall and above average temps for Denver, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs and Provo UT.

www.liveweatherblogs.com...

So, the places that have been dealing with drought are going to continue to deal with it. It appears that the grain belt and the cotton belt will not get the needed moisture over the winter.

Accoding to NOAA as of October 18, 2012:

Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
•Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
•Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
•Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
•Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
•Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

www.noaanews.noaa.gov...

NOAA precipitation prediction map:



NOAA temperature prediction map:



This also has significance for food prices. Stock up now, before it gets worse.

Thank you,Fissionsurplus!

I was just looking earlier today at the drought monitors and was very concerned.

droughtmonitor.unl.edu...

reply to post by kdog1982


You're welcome, KDog! We've been so darned dry for the past month, but earlier in September and October, we were getting good rains, and I was getting hopeful that maybe the drought was over.

Then our weather went dry and overly warm (for instance, yesterday on Thanksgiving, it was HOT here. 81 fricking degrees, we had to run the air conditioner because I had the oven going all day cooking and we were sweating, wearing shorts and tee shirts.

I see the seven day forecast for out here, and the temps swing from cool to warm with no rhyme or reason, and there is a zero percent change of precipitation.

This isnt' good! The whole central part of the US will be warm and dry. Corn and grains won't grow well, they'll dry up, and the cattle will be sold off because the ranchers won't be able to feed them. We already had one year of this....now it looks like two.

I'm afraid it's a trend and we're in for insanely high food prices, which may just coincide with severe "austerity" measures from the government. I'm not liking the way this is looking whatsoever. It is worrisome!!

The weather here is just absolutely crazy!

On Thanksgiving day, it was in the 70's, got pretty warm cooped up inside where the turkey had been cooking all day. Today, it's in the 30's, dropped into the low 20's overnight.

I don't mind whatever the temps average out at, but going up and down and up and down is killing me! I'm a human barometer anyway with all the aches and pains and all these temperature and humidity fluctuations are pretty rough

I don't mind whatever the temps average out at, but going up and down and up and down is killing me! I'm a human barometer anyway with all the aches and pains and all these temperature and humidity fluctuations are pretty rough

reply to post by PurpleChiten


I hear ya. I have rheumatoid arthritis, so the yo-yo weather can be quite uncomfortable. Thanksgiving was too warm; the day after, it was 25 degrees colder. Today, creeping back up again in temperatures.

There is no precipitation anywhere in the near future yet for this area. Our well draws from the Ogallala Aquifer, which is so far down it doesn't get refreshed from the rain, so I'm not particularly worried about our well drying up right now, but I am concerned about the prices of agricultural commodities for next year.

I heard somewhere last year (can't remember where or I'd link it) in which NOAA weather forecasters said that a great majority of the US will experience drought conditions until the year 2020. That's 8 more years of this!!! Say it ain't so!

Looks like I'm going to get nailed a few times this winter (cold temps, snow and ice), which where i live here in SC, 1 or 2 inches on the ground and everything shuts down, hehehee.

Good thing I already have a huge stock of fire wood and food.

Sorry this might seem a dumb question and a very short one at that but would this affect the gulf/jet stream in the Atlantic would we see a change in weather for the UK ?

Gulf current Stall. + Fukushima radiating the pacific possibly raising temps. = mini Ice age

all their predictions seem to contradict more snow with higher that average temps ? 60% - 50% chances ?

seems like the weather watchers are more confused and just telling the public they don't understand and its complicated.

the way I see it if we are in Neutral right now it can either stay in Neutral or get slammed into Drive or Reverse Either way we are observing new patterns in our world that NO ONE can explain.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


S&F

I think the Weather patterns are all out of whack. Colder in some places,wet in others.

Farmers Almanac


For those who don't know what El Niño is.....

reply to post by eriktheawful


Oh yeah, same thing when I lived in Dallas. A quarter inch of snow, and the schools close, the freeways jam up, and there are wrecks all over the place. Let's not even talk about ice storms!

The trick is to be prepared, as you are, so that you don't have to go out and deal with the panicky people in case of inclement weather.

Originally posted by FissionSurplus
reply to post by eriktheawful

 

Oh yeah, same thing when I lived in Dallas. A quarter inch of snow, and the schools close, the freeways jam up, and there are wrecks all over the place. Let's not even talk about ice storms!

The trick is to be prepared, as you are, so that you don't have to go out and deal with the panicky people in case of inclement weather.

And to remember this:

If you loose power due to a snow/ice storm, take your food out of your fridge and freezer and use the outside cold air, or put the snow/ice into a cooler! DOH!

Last really bad ice storm we had here about 8 years or so ago, people went without power for 5 days to a week, then complained about all the food they lost. When I asked them why they didn't just put it outside where it would keep in the freezing air, they just gave me blank looks at first, then did the "ahhhhh crud!" realizing they could have saved themselves a lot of food and grief.

reply to post by ThePeaceMaker


According to www.weatheronline.co.uk...:

As far as western Europe is concerned we are about as far away from the source of ENSO events as it possible to get on the planet; like the ripples which gradually diminish as they spread out after a stone has been dropped in a pool, the effects of El Niño have almost died away by the time they reach us, and they are easily swamped by other phenomena. Thus in our part of the world El Niño is just one relatively small contributor among many to our weather, its influence varies from one ENSO event to another, and to try to isolate any direct response is a pretty futile exercise.

El Nino, La Nina, and ENSO-Neutral conditions are related to the Pacific Ocean, and because the storms and jetstreams over the US go from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic, the above is correct in saying that the ripple effect of these conditions is almost negligible when it hits western Europe.

reply to post by -W1LL


I find it terribly confusing as well. One day we're freezing, the next we're sweating. Very strange weather for this time of year in Texas, although not entirely rare.

I notice our local weatherman has a hard time predicting the weather, even with the computer modeling they use. They are constantly having to adjust the 7-day forecast, and not by a little bit, sometimes as much as 10 degrees per day.

Maybe this is the year that the old computer models for weather will have to be tossed out, and they have to start fresh.

reply to post by sonnny1


LOL, Classic! The first time I saw Chris Farley do this bit, I laughed so hard I almost wet myself.

reply to post by eriktheawful


Excellent advice. I've never been in a situation where power was lost due to cold weather.....yet. I have a freezer full in the house, and one in the garage, and I'd hate to see hundreds of dollars of food have to be thrown out because my brain froze along with the everything else, and I neglected to put it all outside in nature's ice box.