posted on Nov, 23 2012 @ 09:04 PM
Back in October, I posted that we were in a weak El Nino pattern, which looked good for increased moisture for areas of the US which were previously
However, since before Halloween, our weather out here in west Texas has been, for the most part, above average in temperatures, and way below average
in terms of precipitation. Because the El Nino was quite weak, I thought I would check out what the weather prognosticators are saying now.
It appears that El Nino has gone away, and we are now in an "ENSO-Neutral" pattern.
ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El
Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial
Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.
And what is ENSO?
ENSO stands for El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea-
surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño
and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.
Please see my original thread for pics and explanations of the various effects on our weather, particularly for the winter season.
The weather watchers now predict the following likely conditions for various parts of the US:
I can tell you with confidence we are not going to a have a snow drought like last winter...Even with the current trend of a neutral or weak El
Nino we'll still have more snow than last winter in many places.
From there it will depend on many factors from the WestcCoast storm track to a consistent NAO (North American Oscillation) Negative or even Neutral
Phase. Some of this may sound foreign to you but here is how it works in the weather forecasting world.
We are going with a 60% chance of an average to above average snowfall in Boston Hartford New York City Philly Baltimore Washington DC.
We are going with a 51% chance of below normal snowfall for the upper Midwest including Chicago Minneapolis Milwaukee St Louis.
We are going with a 65% chance of below normal precip and above normal temps for the desert southwest including Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, El Paso,
Amarillo, Yuma, and Lubbock TX.
We are going with a 67% chance of above average snowfall and below normal temps in the Northeast including Buffalo, Rochester, Cleveland, Syracuse,
Albany, Burlington, Binghamton and Springfield MA.
We are going with a 52% chance of above average snowfall and above average temps for Denver, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs and Provo UT.
So, the places that have been dealing with drought are going to continue to deal with it. It appears that the grain belt and the cotton belt will not
get the needed moisture over the winter.
Accoding to NOAA as of October 18, 2012:
Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.
In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
•Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the
Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
•Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
•Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming,
Utah and most of Nevada.
•Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South
Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
•Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal
temperatures and/or precipitation.
NOAA precipitation prediction map:
NOAA temperature prediction map:
This also has significance for food prices. Stock up now, before it gets worse.