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ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.
ENSO stands for El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.
I can tell you with confidence we are not going to a have a snow drought like last winter...Even with the current trend of a neutral or weak El Nino we'll still have more snow than last winter in many places.
From there it will depend on many factors from the WestcCoast storm track to a consistent NAO (North American Oscillation) Negative or even Neutral Phase. Some of this may sound foreign to you but here is how it works in the weather forecasting world.
We are going with a 60% chance of an average to above average snowfall in Boston Hartford New York City Philly Baltimore Washington DC.
We are going with a 51% chance of below normal snowfall for the upper Midwest including Chicago Minneapolis Milwaukee St Louis.
We are going with a 65% chance of below normal precip and above normal temps for the desert southwest including Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, El Paso, Amarillo, Yuma, and Lubbock TX.
We are going with a 67% chance of above average snowfall and below normal temps in the Northeast including Buffalo, Rochester, Cleveland, Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Binghamton and Springfield MA.
We are going with a 52% chance of above average snowfall and above average temps for Denver, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs and Provo UT.
Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.
In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
•Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
•Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
•Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
•Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
•Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
reply to post by PurpleChiten
I don't mind whatever the temps average out at, but going up and down and up and down is killing me! I'm a human barometer anyway with all the aches and pains and all these temperature and humidity fluctuations are pretty rough
Originally posted by FissionSurplus
reply to post by eriktheawful
Oh yeah, same thing when I lived in Dallas. A quarter inch of snow, and the schools close, the freeways jam up, and there are wrecks all over the place. Let's not even talk about ice storms!
The trick is to be prepared, as you are, so that you don't have to go out and deal with the panicky people in case of inclement weather.
As far as western Europe is concerned we are about as far away from the source of ENSO events as it possible to get on the planet; like the ripples which gradually diminish as they spread out after a stone has been dropped in a pool, the effects of El Niño have almost died away by the time they reach us, and they are easily swamped by other phenomena. Thus in our part of the world El Niño is just one relatively small contributor among many to our weather, its influence varies from one ENSO event to another, and to try to isolate any direct response is a pretty futile exercise.