T-28 Days and counting!

Thanks to KDog here is the Hurricane data. Difficult to know how to display this one so that any trend can be shown.



Anyone got any ideas on a better way?

reply to post by PuterMan


You know, I'd tend to feel better about it really being within statistical norms if so MUCH of this years numbers for the high side hadn't all concentrated in the last 30-45 days. Stretched about evenly across 12 months, we're in a very active year, but I'd be hard pressed to say it's been a year to even use the word 'doom' for...just as I'd noted that a couple months back. Err.... Then we get to the last month or two and out of a period where weeks could go without a 6 event outside the South Pacific where they feel weird NOT having one...to 6+ quakes all over and in some weird spots given the frequency and timelines.

I'll just be happy when I can turn the page on the wall to 2013 and worry about nothing but the fiscal cliff ahead a couple days later. lol.... Man made catastrophe is fixable compared to what the Maya and other civilization's thoughts were on this time period. Let it be done....and the sooner the better with little but wasted prep work and embarassment to show for it.

reply to post by PuterMan



The Atlantic tropical season is coming to a close,so I wouldn't think that would be a factor.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by Trueman

 

Ah but is it not the case that all madmen think they are sane?

I consider myself to be absolutely sane, but I don't think my other half does.

Ahh!..I thought for a moment you were crazy. Now you are making sense.

reply to post by PuterMan

Question here for everyone. Bearing in mind the thread title should I continue other days on this thread ot have a T-27, T-26. Would that make it easier?

God no!

We already have a 30 days to go thread, now we're blessed with a 28 days to go thread...

How many do we need?

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

You know, I'd tend to feel better about it really being within statistical norms if so MUCH of this years numbers for the high side hadn't all concentrated in the last 30-45 days.

Thing is that if we ignore 2011 and 2010 because of Japan and Chile, then 2009 exhibited exactly the same pattern with the heaviest months at the end of the year. 14,12,5,11,6,8,11,19,15,34,14,12

To much hassle to create charts for every year but I have just looked back to 2000 for Mag 6+ and it is visually obvious that the first and last few months of each year are more heavily populated with quakes than the middle. The only exception to that is 2001. October is a particularly popular month!

Even 2010 and 2011 do show it but are majorly skewed by the two big quakes as is 2004 to a lesser degree.

reply to post by Chadwickus

How many do we need?

One for each day?

I was only suggesting. Just that this is going to get a little full with pages of charts for each day.

reply to post by PuterMan


Don't get me wrong, I like what you're doing, I just know what ATS is like during a big event and it'll get messy with a million new threads starting on the subject...

Maybe we should graph how many new threads are started on the subject each day.

Guaranteed to see an upward trend there lol

So,who is having the party on the 22nd?

Sorry,off topic.
I honestly don't really see a trend other than volcanoes,but I don't know the history of those yet,and they seem to have changing.

Why is the emphasis on the ending being caused by natural events? I thought the worlds armies are on the brink of escalating conflict in the Middle East, i.e., Syria and then Iran that then leads to WWIII and the end of civilization as we know it?

That wouldn't involve any earthquakes, volcanoes or superstorms but would surely affect the entire planet if a major exchange of ICBM's occurred among the nuclear armed nations.

MAD is still in effect, I think. The mutual assured destruction of all our enemies at once. And theirs too (meaning us).

reply to post by PuterMan


I see a wave pattern in that one picture. Do you know if there is a long term wave pattern to these quakes and if so is it related to anything?

reply to post by PuterMan


Actually for anyone paying attention, it got weird about 5-7yrs ago-- that's when the crazier seismic spikers started.
Not worried tho, California may snap back and get dinged pretty badly if the subduction zone resets...
But I have now fears for Dec 21st, 2012....
(Of your worried, will all your stuff to me come Dec 22nd)
; ))

Originally posted by Trueman

PS just in case anyone is doubting my sanity, no I do not believe anything is going to happen out of the ordinary.

Your last words ruined the thread.

Not ruined it. Revealed it!

Something interesting is the fact that Tonagriro erupted for the first time this year in about 115 years I think it was. Funnily enough, another volcano (White Island) in New Zealand decided to erupt, and while it has been active for some time it was a timely coincidence. Just a day(s) apart.

I'm not too sure on exact dates but that gives you the idea.

reply to post by PuterMan


What rubbish there is going to be no calamity just the end of 3d that is all.

reply to post by kdog1982

but I don't know the history of those yet,and they seem to have changing.

Working on it.I will have better data is a day or so.


reply to post by intrptr

Why is the emphasis on the ending being caused by natural events? I thought the worlds armies are on the brink of escalating conflict in the Middle East, i.e., Syria and then Iran that then leads to WWIII and the end of civilization as we know it?

Because basically many believe that is what ancient texts said. Of course they also mentioned other kids of destruction in Revelations etc. The source of the end should it happen could be any, but I cannot track trends in conflicts so I will stick with the natural causes.


reply to post by rickymouse


I will come back to you on that when I have T-27 up.


reply to post by braunbear

it got weird about 5-7yrs ago-- that's when the crazier seismic spikers started.

Just the top of the 55/56 years Solar connected cycle.


reply to post by frenzy4444

What rubbish there is going to be no calamity just the end of 3d that is all.

That basically is the premise of the thread. Not sure what you mean by 3d however.

T-27 Days and counting

Not really much reportable change to trends today but I have taken the time to present the Mag 6 and Mag 7 events in a better format (time spaced) as the Mag 7 chart in particular was misleading showing a downward trend.

There are sufficient events in the Mag 4.5 and Mag 5 events to not require spacing by days.

I hav added the formulae for the trend line since otherwise it is difficult to see if a 'flat' trend as in Mag 5s is up or down.

earthquakes

All magnitudes 4.5+ to 23rd Nov inclusive


Mag 4.5-4.9


Mag 5


Mag 6


Mag 7 (Trend up not down)

Volcanoes

No change from Yesterday.

I hope to have a graphical representation later to day or early tomorrow.

As far as I can ascertain these are the volcanoes that are currently erupting.

Ambrym (Vanuatu )
Batu Tara (Sunda Islands, Indonesia)
Erebus (Antarctica)
Erta Ale (Ethiopia)
Etna (Sicily, Italy)
Fuego (Guatemala)
Gamalama (Halmahera, Indonesia)
Kilauea (Hawai'i)
Kizimen (Eastern Kamchatka (Russia))
Nyiragongo (DRCongo)
Ol Doinyo Lengai (Tanzania)
Poas (Costa Rica)
Raung (East Java, Indonesia)
Reventador (Ecuador)
Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan)
Santa María / Santiaguito (Guatemala)
Santiago (Galápagos Islands, Ecuador)
Semeru (East Java, Indonesia)
Shiveluch (Kamchatka)
Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy)
Tongariro (North Island, New Zealand)
Ulawun (New Britain, Papua New Guinea)
Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu)

23 in total, but bear in mind that 16 are considered to be always erupting.

Tropical Storms/Hurricanes

Global Category 1+ Storms

Don't listen to the OP folks...

He's one of those disinformation agents.
I can smell a disinfo scam from a mile away, I tell ya.

He's just trying to get us to stay all cozy in our beds so that when the New Madrid opens up and sucks us all in, THEY will meet THEIR death quota of killing off all the needless eaters !

This is the climax of all doomsdays people, Dec 21st - Lest We Forget...

The OP has been working his charms up until this point pretending to be all helpful and friendly and such so that he can finally push forth his TRUE agenda.

Don't buy into the propaganda !
Deny ignorance !





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reply to post by PuterMan

Frankly I think having this one thread would have been enough. After all, it says "T -28 Days and counting" in the title. If people can't figure out that means "28 days to go and counting down" then they need some pretty basic schooling.

Also I might get rather tedious if we have to hunt back through over twenty threads to see what happened on preceding days. As ATS is set up to allow threads of pretty well any length, why not just keep it all in one? You can put an nice bright yellow header in the first post of each day of the countdown to let folks know where we are.

Finally, from the point of view of posterity, again it would be far simpler to have a single reference thread rather than two-and-a-half dozen. Of course, if the world ends on Dec 21/22, then posterity takes a back seat (oblique pun), but otherwise it will be a great thread to refer back to when the next end-of-the-world date gets offered up by someone and is cyberly spread hither and yon by his/her devoted followers and/or marketing agency.

About the hurricanes -- or to be more accurate, severe tropical cyclones: as they are seasonal anyway, we're most likely to see very few in the Atlantic for the rest of this calendar year, but there should be an uptick in their numbers in the Pacific, especially south of the equator. It would take something most extraordinary to cause any significant changes to that pattern.

But all the same, might as well have them listed just in case the most extraordinary does occur.

The quake trend data are absolute gold. Many, many thanks for keeping those up to date. I find it interesting that the 6-range ones seem to be trending upwards, but as I mentioned somewhere before, it would help if we could also perhaps have some details of eg western side of the ring of fire events vs eastern side. Can that be done or is it a huge headache to set up?

Best regards

Mike