This series will be keeping track particularly of earthquakes and volcanoes to see if a trend can be detected as we roll on towards our final end, or
22nd December 2012. A sort of rolling analysis if you like.
I have picked the 1st September as the starting date for the earthquake trends as that should give a long enough time to actually see a trend.
As far as volcanoes go I have a list of currently erupting, but the Smithsonian site is erroring so I can't get back to some of the past reports to
create numbers. I will try that again tomorrow.
Today's data runs up to 22nd November. Tomorrows will be to the 23rd. I shall update earlier tomorrow, I just got a bit busy today.
EARTHQUAKES (Mag 4.5+ Global USGS)
The trend overall is upwards but only very slight.
Mag 4-4.9 only
The trend is up and the best fit trend is up.
Mag 5-5.9 only
The linear trend is flat or perhaps very slightly up. The best fit polynomial trend is down
Mag 6-6.9 only
Linear trend is up. Best fit polynomial is down.
Trend is down. Poly trend is not really relevant.
As far as I can ascertain these are the volcanoes that are currently erupting.
Ambrym (Vanuatu )
Batu Tara (Sunda Islands, Indonesia)
Erta Ale (Ethiopia)
Etna (Sicily, Italy)
Gamalama (Halmahera, Indonesia)
Kizimen (Eastern Kamchatka (Russia))
Ol Doinyo Lengai (Tanzania)
Poas (Costa Rica)
Raung (East Java, Indonesia)
Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan)
Santa María / Santiaguito (Guatemala)
Santiago (Galápagos Islands, Ecuador)
Semeru (East Java, Indonesia)
Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy)
Tongariro (North Island, New Zealand)
Ulawun (New Britain, Papua New Guinea)
Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu)
23 in total, but bear in mind that 16 are considered to be always erupting.
If anyone has a reliable source of current and historical tropical storms counts please let me know and I will track those as well.
Reports of more than 4 horsemen will be ignored unless accompanied by documentary and visual evidence, and their names and addresses.
Is there a site that documents current and historical UFO activity?
Any other events we should track??
PS just in case anyone is doubting my sanity, no I do not believe anything is going to happen out of the ordinary.