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Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still. According to a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a 92 per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C. However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.
This article gives a more realistic angle than many reports about how science really has to wait and see before making presumptions.
The current analysis uses satellite observed nightlights to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and peri-urban stations for non-climatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. A paper describing the current analysis was published (Hansen et al. 2010) in Reviews of Geophysics in December 2010. The paper compares alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Alternative choices for the ocean data are tested. It is shown that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions, where observations are limited. We suggest use of 12-month (and n×12) running mean temperature to fully remove the annual cycle and improve information content in temperature graphs. We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade, despite large year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010. After that paper appeared, version 3 of the GHCN data became available. The current analysis is now based on the adjusted GHCN v3 data for the data over land. The ocean data are still based on Hadley Center's HadISST1 and Reynold's OISST based on satellite measurements. We maintain a running record of any modifications made to the analysis, available on our Updates to Analysis page. Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using the current adjusted GHCN-v3 and SCAR files. The new files incorporate reports for the previous month and late reports and corrections for earlier months. The GHCNv3/SCAR data are modified to obtain station data from which our tables, graphs, and maps are constructed: The urban and peri-urban (i.e., other than rural) stations are adjusted so that their long-term trend matches that of the mean of neighboring rural stations. Urban stations without nearby rural stations are dropped.
The analysis is limited to the period since 1880 because of poor spatial coverage of stations and decreasing data quality prior to that time. Meteorological station data provide a useful indication of temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for a few decades prior to 1880, and there are a small number of station records that extend back to previous centuries. However, we believe that analyses for these earlier years need to be carried out on a station by station basis with an attempt to discern the method and reliability of measurements at each station, a task beyond the scope of our analysis. Global studies of still earlier times depend upon incorporation of proxy measures of temperature change. Programs used in the GISTEMP analysis and documentation on their use are available for download. The programs assume a Unix-like operating system and require familiarity with FORTRAN, C and Python for installation and use.
Anomalies and Absolute Temperatures Our analysis concerns only temperature anomalies, not absolute temperature. Temperature anomalies are computed relative to the base period 1951-1980. The reason to work with anomalies, rather than absolute temperature is that absolute temperature varies markedly in short distances, while monthly or annual temperature anomalies are representative of a much larger region. Indeed, we have shown (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987) that temperature anomalies are strongly correlated out to distances of the order of 1000 km. For a more detailed discussion, see The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature.
Originally posted by dmsuse
You can't rely on any nasa temperature charts as nasa has never based their temperature findings on any set location
they base it on random locations all over the world and even change/remove and add new stations all the time, they wont tell you for example when they close down a weather station in alaska and move it to africa
If you want to do some real research do it on a single location.
I don't doubt the warming since 1979, at all...I do doubt pre-1979 data, though... I just prefer to use the most accurate data, and most legitimate physical analysis.
You mention "research"...what you say about "research" is not accurate...I was one of the scientists you cite, actually doing such "research"..I was a reviewer of the AR4 IPCC report..I've attended hundreds of conferences, and reviewed dozens of papers..even from the scientists you've cited here. But you're still making claims about me, and the science, that are not true.
Abrupt climate change occurs when the system is forced to cross an "unfamiliar" threshold, one that does not allow the same atmospheric circulation regime to sustain in ability...which means that, if the Solar Cycles do shut down after this cycle, the Earth could either come close to, or surpass the perturbation threshold that has held us in the Holocene interglacial.
So, I predict that, depending on what this upcoming minimum turns out to be, will dtermine whether or not we're going into a simple cool period as seen in the 1970's/1900's, or whether it will be a steady, significant cooling, followed by a plunge into conditions that the system will not recover from, hence the end of the Holocene.
All five databases are the result of much painstaking work, and they all represent admirable attempts towards establishing an estimate of recent global temperature changes. At the same time it should however be noted, that a temperature record which keeps on changing the past hardly can qualify as being correct.
I believe that the sun is getting hotter