posted on Nov, 10 2012 @ 09:47 PM
reply to post by UltraMarine
Most of those articles and news stories are based off of the false assumption that China's economy will continue to grow as fast as it has. From what
I've seen, that's unlikely to happen. Besides, those studies about china surpassing the U.S. in 2016 are based off of Purchasing Power Parity GDP,
not Real GDP. The whole "China will surpass the U.S." thing reminds me of the predictions in the eighties that Japan would surpass America. Then a
few years later, the lost decade starts, and now the Japanese economy has only grown by like two or three percent overall in the last 20 years.
Besides, the cost of Chinese labor is increasing at a very fast rate, while the cost of labor in the rest of the third world is staying the same or
decreasing. Remember, the ONLY reason China is in the position its in is because for twenty years they have had the cheapest labor force around.
That was why so many jobs moved to china in the first place. At the same time, they have had a very young labor force, but most demographic data
suggests that up to a quarter of their population will be elderly in the next fifteen to twenty years. This will put massive strain on their economy,
similar to what happened to Japan in the nineties. Add to that the fact that the U.S. is predicted to become the largest energy producer in the world
within a decade, and the resulting manufacturing renaissance that and a host of new industrial technologies will bring to the U.S., and it is very
unlikely that China will become the worlds largest economy. Hate to burst your bubble, but China's fast economic growth is unsustainable.
P.S., I wouldn't trust a Russian state owned network to be truthful.........just saying.
edit on 10-11-2012 by Antonio1 because: added post