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Yes, the Economy Could Have Been Fixed. All the Rest Were. Don't be Blinded.

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posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 07:46 PM
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"He can't fix the economy in four years."

"It took eight years to create this mess, it'll take eight years to fix it."
- ATS Posters

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," and frankly that evidence doesn't exist.

All evidence points to the fact that the economy could have been fixed and hasn't been fixed. In the economy, Obama has been a complete failure. Fixing an American economy doesn't take eight years. That's misinformation and dangerous misinformation at that.

Let's gather some facts. One group that has studied this is the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta. www.frbatlanta.org...
Here's what they've got to say:

U.S. history provides no support for linking low employment and high unemployment in the current recovery with the financial crisis of 2007–2008.
How do we compare to other recessions?

Charts 1 and 2 show the U.S. civilian employment rate and total civilian employment. Judging by these measures, the current U.S. recovery is atypical and very weak compared to other post World War II recoveries. As chart 1 indicates, the unemployment rate has remained persistently high since the recession, persistent in a way that did not occur in any other recession since World War II.1 And as chart 2 indicates, employment has leveled off since the recession instead of resuming its typical, continued rise.
Table 1 shows that employment was back above the pre-recession peak in every post war recession except this one within 3 1/2 years from the start of the recession.

Table 2 shows that the GDP had recovered within three years for each of the post war recessions except this one.

Table 3 looks at the Gross National Product for every severe downturn from 1882. It measures how much GNP was lost in the recession, and how much was gained back in the two years after the recession ended. The only recessions in which the GNP wasn't completely recovered was the Great Depression, and this one.

The report concludes with

The recent slow recovery is most similar to the Great Depression. Low aggregate demand for reasons unrelated to the financial crisis may be an explanation for both episodes, but uncertainty and government policies are an alternative supported by recent research on the Great Depression.
For those of you who trust science, let me repeat part of their conclusion. Recent research supports the idea that the Great Depression and this Great Recession can be explained by uncertainty and governmental policies. It will be helpful for future discussions if we don't start from the premise that it takes more than four years to fix an American economy, unless you have some extraordinary evidence.

With respect,
Charles1952




posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:07 PM
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I can only speak of my experience, when Reagan took office my world fell apart. I became a recessional worker if you will,and my life did not start to return to normal until 1990. So for me it was 9 years.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:08 PM
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reply to post by charles1952
 


Hello Charles my friend,

I offer a thought....

When looked at a recession, the numbers seem to be poor. But what if we looked at the past five years as a depression? I know... I know... the pundits and economists argue deeply over the specifics of these labels. But I offer that these events are organic and unique - and that often it takes many years before an accurate picture of the situation can be arrived at.

From my own, personal POV... I rode out all of the previous recessions, from the seventies forward - and not a single one of them was even a blip on my radar. My assets, savings, property, employment, etc. never suffered. That is until 2007/2008.

Being that I am not an economist, it will be easy for others to "debunk" what I am offering, and I understand that. I accept it. I merely offer a real world reporting of my own, personal experiences. This event was the first one in my entire life that actually did effect my circumstances - so I will always perceive it as worse than the others. Most of the people I know also have similar tales.

Given that? I know my Grandfather lived through much worse in the late twenties and early thirties. Though he and my father are both long dead, I will always remember their tales of that period - of the wandering families, who would send one child to each door in an area, to beg food. Of the dust bowl and my families exodus from Oklahoma to northern California.

This is why I look around and feel that maybe things are better than they could have been... this connection to that past event. I have yet to have to beg for food... and have yet for a starving child to knock upon my door. In fact, even in my situation - which is more dire than most others... I am typing on a computer, across the Internet, while sitting in a nice and clean home, with my belly full and a glass of iced tea next to me.

Just food for thought.

~Heff



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:13 PM
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Maybe we could start by cutting out the 30 million dollars a year we spend of foreign aid.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:19 PM
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reply to post by charles1952
 

Just need to take our que from Iceland.

What The World Can Learn From Iceland's Default Model

Which is what Ron Paul and some others advocated.

You know, the one politician who wasnt bought and paid for by the banks.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:22 PM
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Originally posted by zonetripper2065
Maybe we could start by cutting out the 30 million dollars a year we spend of foreign aid.
What about the elephant in the room, aka the military budget. 30 million in foreign aid is peanuts compared to the elephant.

I'm so punny.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:38 PM
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I would like to throw a couple of ideas out for consideration.

1) if the same 800billion from the stimulous had been given out to say, all the Americans losing their homes, or needing cars etc.. The auto industry and the housing market would have both been nearly flush, thus avoiding both of those problems. Instead of just giving it to already billionaires who simply stashed it away with the rest of their monies.

2) They could have simply done their jobs correctly and aloud all those corrupt banks to go to their graves like they should have, and prosecuted every one of those responsible for screwing everyone over and reclaimed the assets stolen, thus returning the retirements to those they were stolen from.

Then taken the same 800 billion, and used it to send out a small stipend to every worker in the country between the ages of 30 and 55 for them to purchase goods and services, stimulating growth, through bottom up economics( the actual method the economy runs on, demand always spurs supply, not the other way around) which would have either avoided the current never ending recession, or at the minimum lessened it.


Instead they did neither, they simply pissed it away, on literally nothing at all, and simply ran us farther into the hole.

Which seems to be the goal from where I am sitting.

Heff, I totally agree, all the other recessions went unnoticed by my circle of family and friends and I, this one.....well life hasnt been really great for the last couple years, but we are still fighting and getting by.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:39 PM
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reply to post by AdamsMurmur
 


A simple guide to put it in perspective...do read to the bottom for an eye opener.....



A Trillion Can't Be THAT Much More, Can It?

Million, billion, trillion ... all big numbers. A trillion is just a bigger number, right? True ... but it may be bigger than you think. A million is hard enough to imagine, much less a billion. We need some perspective on what these unimaginable numbers really mean.

Let's Measure a Trillion in Numbers
We'll start simple: how big is a trillion on paper?

1,000 = one thousand
1,000,000 = one million
1,000,000,000 = one billion
1,000,000,000,000 = one trillion
A million is equal to a thousand thousands (1,000 x 1,000).
A billion is equal to a thousand millions
(1,000 x 1,000,000).
A trillion is equal to
a thousand billions
(1,000 x 1,000,000,000)
or a million millions
(1,000,000 x 1,000,000).


Now, to give you another simple guide for perspective....



Let's Measure a Trillion in Time

How Long Ago Is a Trillion Seconds?

If you count backward, then:

1 million seconds = 12 days ago
1 billion seconds = 31 years ago
1 trillion seconds = 30,000 B.C.
(give or take a decade or two)


And now, even more simple....



Let's Measure a Trillion in Height

How high is a trillion in $1000 bills?

If you stack a trillion-worth of $1000 bills together, then:

1 million dollars = 4 inches high
1 billion dollars = 364 feet high
1 trillion dollars = 63 miles high
(give or take a foot or two)

Note that this is a STACK, not laid end-to-end.

www.squidoo.com...


Easier to understand....just how deep in debt, as a Nation we are...are you scared yet...I am...


Des



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:50 PM
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reply to post by Hefficide
 

Dear Hefficide,

Respectful greetings, oh great and powerful Wizard of Mods. You bring up a good point. Could it have been a depression that we were saved from? That's a real possibility, but I'll have to check into that some more.

It seems that the recession hit bottom in the Summer of 2009, after Obama had been in for less than six months, and started back up. Could that have been caused by his policies? I wouldn't have thought they would work that quickly, especially since a lot of the stimulus money took a while to get distributed, but you never know.

But your other point, asking "are we in a depression now?" brings up an interesting side question. Wouldn't the administration know that? They have stables filled with economists, reports, and computers. Perhaps they don't want to tell us? Would the government lie to us? (Just thought you could use a smile.)

But if we're going to go with a current depression, I think we'd have to agree that it's a depression like no one has ever seen before. And I'm a little reluctant to say that we've hit an economic situation unlike anything that has ever happened in our history. Especially since the Fed is saying that the governmental policies and uncertainties now, look a lot like what we had in the Great Depression.

With respect,
Charles1952



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 08:55 PM
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reply to post by Destinyone
 


And a little more perspective:




posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 09:00 PM
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reply to post by Hefficide
 



Given that? I know my Grandfather lived through much worse in the late twenties and early thirties. Though he and my father are both long dead, I will always remember their tales of that period - of the wandering families, who would send one child to each door in an area, to beg food. Of the dust bowl and my families exodus from Oklahoma to northern California.


Yeah... I've been thinking about that myself. In fact, I've been putting quite a bit of thought into that as I've watched something get worse. It ebbs and it flows back out for size....but fundamentally, this picture hasn't changed much in a disturbingly long period of time now.





Source - Main Monitor Page

The California produce fields of the Central Valley hadn't gotten any better for their own water issues among other things from when I'd gotten off the road, last I read. That's the second major food production area. Yuma and El Centro having unemployment north of 20% tells me those areas aren't exactly hopping for work in the produce and supporting industries either and it's been like that for awhile too.

I think there are a few real big shoes that have a long way to drop....and so haven't dropped yet. There is sure more to come by the pure environmental cycle or phase we started into within the last year or two, if nothing else.


BTW... I listened to like a 25 hour audio book on the truck about the depression and dust bowl years. I'd never recommend such a self inflicted torture. ugh.. no one can seem to write about that era in anything like an interesting way for reading about it. I did find this though, if it may be helpful for some on a quick primer for what happened. This almost told me as much for what mattered in high points as that endless audio book.

Timeline with events before and during the Great Depression



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 09:12 PM
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Ladies and Gentlemen,

A few general comments if I may? Most important, thank you sincerely for looking at this and thinking about the issues. There are some serious and intelligent members of ATS and it's a real joy and honor to know you're here.

The figures the Fed are looking at deal largely with jobs, and the value of what we and our companies produce or invest. Government spending is counted in the GDP as well. Some of you are looking at what the government spends on foreign aid and the military, good, that's important. But it's a two-edged sword. Whatever the government spends, it has to get by taking from someone. Even if they borrow money, they're taking it from the future.

When one takes from Citizen "A" and gives to Citizen "B," it's hard to see what improvement is made in the national economy. Sure, "B" is happy and "A" grumbles, but nothing has been produced, there's no new value in the country. "A" and "B" were both planning on either spending the money or investing it somewhere. (That includes putting it in a bank for them to loan out.)

Sometimes the government decides to get into the crystal ball game and decide who should be the Citizen "B" that gets the money. When they decide that Solyndra is Citizen "B," the money just disappears into creditors' hands and nothing is created. Don't misunderstand, I'm not criticizing helping those in need, that's basic humanity, but deciding which company to support? Not unless it's for a neccessary government service.

When every politician talks about jobs, they're talking about creating new and lasting jobs. Since the Great Depression we've always been able to work it out on our own, but now we're stuck. I tend to agree with the Fed that it is government policies and uncertainity that is keeping us from getting started again. What policies slow us down? An example might be more regulations and forms which require time to comply with. Sometimes necessary, but more and more often they take money and time away from producing and funnel it into paperwork.



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 09:57 PM
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reply to post by AdamsMurmur
 

Dear AdamsMurmur,

Thanks for adding the video. My first impression is that they are trying to fool people. There's a lot of double counting and some questionable assumptions. May I suggest you check here: www.usgovernmentspending.com...
especially the table under the pie chart?

For the 2013 budget, the government is planning on spending 3803 billion dollars. Some of the figures include
Pensions..........879 billion
Health Care......916 billion
Welfare.............422 billion
Defense........... 901 billion
Education.........136 billion
Transportation..114 billion

I'm sorry, but I don't think the 53% figure from the video is anywhere near accurate.

With respect,
Charles1952



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 10:29 PM
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reply to post by charles1952
 


Big Picture Sir, Big Picture.

We are NOW in a Global Economy, with a Global Workforce, Global Banking , thus Global Problems.

Are you so Arrogant to think the US will Prosper, when Globally , Countries are failing.

Big Picture, turn off FOX News



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 10:49 PM
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reply to post by Tw0Sides
 

Thank you for encouraging me to attempt to solve the problems of the global economy. (That is a big picture.) I hope I don't disappoint you too much by saying, no, thank you. It's true that countries affect others, but the US is a little harder to hurt, economically, than a country with a smaller economy. Also, I don't know of anyone qualified to do anything other than come up with respectable guesses about the proper approach, I'm certainly not.

Further, this thread was to look at what had gone wrong with our economy and it's recovery, and whether we could learn to deal with it better.

We can't, and shouldn't want to, control the economies of the nations of the world. Nor should we give the economy of the world to a global panel of economists.


Are you so Arrogant to think the US will Prosper, when Globally , Countries are failing.
Arrogant? No, I just want us to take care of ourselves as well as we can. If the US collapses, the world won't do well at all. (And I don't watch FOX news.)

What do you think about the Atlanta Fed's findings and analysis?

With respect,
Charles1952



posted on Nov, 9 2012 @ 11:34 PM
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reply to post by AdamsMurmur
 


I'd rather see our tax dollars blowing up than being spent on Israel, Egypt and Pakistan. Maybe we can find a happy medium and have our tax dollars blowing up IN Egypt, Israel and Pakistan?



posted on Nov, 10 2012 @ 12:49 AM
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reply to post by charles1952
 



Fixing an American economy doesn't take eight years. That's misinformation and dangerous misinformation at that.


Excellent thread Charles !!


Not only does it not take 8 years to fix, it don't take 8 years to create either (IMO disclaimer)

The current Democrat steam engine started in Jan 2007 with the takeover of Congress.

The mythical "8 years of creation" included an economic boom that started a calculated decline in 2007.

For those who believe the "8 years" started in 2001, please show us.

Lots of facts say otherwise.....
 


Republicans for the most part had control of Congressional Committees from Jan 2001 to Jan 2007.

Unemployment peaked down to 4.4% in Oct 2006 from a high of 6.3% in June 2003.

Democrats took control of Congress in Jan 2007 (the Harry Reid - Nancy Pelosi steam engine).

Unemployment started spiking up since mid 2007.

Maybe no correlation, but why would the "Failed" economic policies from 2001 to 2007 show astounding results ?

And why on Earth would Republicans be so hell bent on destroying those good results ?

The “results” we see today could be the “result” of an immense Democrat power binge since Jan 2007.

Very confusing. What went wrong ? What changed ?



 


And can someone explain why the spending deficit showed such a wild increase from 2008 to 2009 ? (A 300% + increase)

The revenue decrease was only $419 billion.

The deficit increase was $954 billion







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