Fed Report: 100% Chance of Recession

Fed Report: 100% Chance of Recession

Now that the election is over, the propaganda media can back off the burying of those critical stories that they couldn’t be bothered to report in the lead up to the re-election of President Obama.

What are we talking about?

For starters, the Federal Reserve’s recent report, which received nary a comment from the political and financial pundits on television.

While the economy was on the minds of most voters last night, what they didn’t know may have very well swung the election to one candidate over another.

And this particular tidbit of data is as important as it gets when we’re talking about economic health:

Via SGT Report and The Daily Crux with commentary by Pragmatic Capitalism:

Here’s an interesting new data point that the St Louis Fed has put together to calculate recession probabilities:

“Recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. “

What’s interesting about this index is the current reading. At 20%, the index is at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. As you can see below, the index has never approached 20% without a subsequent recession. All 6 recessions since 1967 have coincided with 20%+ readings in the US Recession Probabilities index.

It’s no secret that the economy is still hurting. According to this report we are on the verge of another recession within the midst of a broader ‘depression.’ Contrarian analysts have already suggested this is the case, with many saying we’ve been in recession since at least summer.

Moreover, if you look at the real numbers behind the numbers, like the rate of real inflation, and bounce those against this purported economic growth you may be surprised to find that we never exited the recession!


www.shtfplan.com...
research.stlouisfed.org...

Fear porn...more of the crying and stomping around like their heads are on fire.

The Fed wants to issue another QE to infinity...you know...that is how they make their money...

And...they will prob do it.

I can say...that for the last few weeks, what I do is looking up...more bids, more contracts...I am not accepting the fear porn. It's not reality. The reality is that the housing market is coming back in more and more areas. Constuction is slowing stirring back to life and people are honestly feeling that the coming holiday season is going to be better around the Christmas tree / Menorah than it has been for several years.

It's just tears of sadness from the butthurt folks that lost...I lost too, but I am not shouting that the sky is falling this morning

Make the FEDs deals and plans and what not transparrent like Ron keeps saying.

Their top men are asked questions all the time, nice simples ones, about huge sums of money and they "dont know" Like these two clowns.

www.youtube.com...

www.youtube.com...

Note this is not some questionable conspiracy web site, or random miss quotes, its video from congress and the real deal.

The FED is a failure and run by secret squirrels with their own interests.

I have to ask did you write
those articles in the links you gave
cause its copy paste

I believe you are missing

ex Text tags

and your opinion

reply to post by 1947flxible


And once again, electing Romney would NOT HAVE CHANGED THIS.



Are all Americans really this idiotic? Would people really have voted based on this? I don't think so. The idea that these statistics only exist because Obama is the president is so retarded it's not even worth the discussion, I think that's probably why the media didn't bother reporting on one poxy regional Fed decided.

Guess what, America is screwed either way. Whoever the president is you have $16 trillion debt. You haven't even started on austerity yet.

Romney would not have fared any better. He's not a freakin' magician. He cannot make that debt go away, or the financial crisis around the world magically vanish. This is what Republican's seem to think would happen, that as soon as Romney walked past the threshold of the White house roses would bloom and the clouds would part, some mythical God would look down and say "hey, a Capitalist is president! Lets just make all their debt vanish and get the economy fixed for them!"

You have the same problems with either man. The question is who would support the MAJORITY of people, and not just use "trickle down economics" something that has spectacularly failed all over the world.

You need a man capable of holding your people together through an economic crisis. Romney would be busy bailing out his big time corporate buddies, ignoring 47% of the American people, causing massive homelessness and poverty, and creating massive instability. Obama at least understands that society needs to be held together.

That's the reality, deal with it, quit whining because your man lost.

reply to post by EvilBat


I did forget those im sorry, and i have to admit that my opinion today would probably get the whole post blocked, i will try to make this clean and quick. Im Sick And Tierd Of Having My Familys Future ****** Over. Thats the best i can do today, sorry m8.

we never recovered. That is like saying that the sun is bright.

Duh.

reply to post by detachedindividual


I personaly am not whining, im pissed that this country is so screwed because of IDIOTS who believe the MSM like the 47% BS, lol only a COMPLETE FOOL would believe that The President isnt going to bailout his big buisness buddies aka Unions, lets look at GM which is now going to make 7 of 10 cars in China, and move the Research and development to China aswell, this according to GMs own CEO, enjoy that good paying job pal, in China.


This is what makes people mad, the absolute IGNORANCE people have, thats your money at work (well maybe not your $, you have to have money first to have it stolen from you), being sent to another country while people complain about a REAL FACT that 47% of americans are on the dole and are never going to vote for a pay cut for themselves and that is 100% cold hard fact. The 47% remark is FACT and now we the 53%(me), we who prop up those 47% want it to end, its not fair to me to have my earning STOLEN from me to pay for those who have no desire. Its stolen through high taxes and inflation both drivin in the end by the FED.
Also just to clear this up, i wrote in Ron Paul, my guy was pushed out by the MSM and the republican party a long time ago, also if you couldnt read, this was an article about the FED, which one of these two D-bags ever even mentioned the fed in a substaintial way except window dressing.
only Ron Paul

reply to post by 1947flxible


This would seem to imply we actually recovered from the last one. I don't think so.

AND CANADA IS WORRIED TOO... because of the US.

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada will fall into recession if Washington does not reach a deal by year-end to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday.

ca.reuters.com...

Originally posted by 1947flxible
reply to post by detachedindividual

 

I personaly am not whining, im pissed that this country is so screwed because of IDIOTS who believe the MSM like the 47% BS, lol only a COMPLETE FOOL would believe that The President isnt going to bailout his big buisness buddies aka Unions,

There is a difference between the "company" and the Union. The Company is who invests, manages and sells a product. The Union represents the labor force used to create said product and communicates to the company on behalf of the worker in many different situations but most importantly though collective bargaining.

I really do not understand the Union bashing, unless you have something against workers for a company having representation to insure fair treatment, safe working conditions, fair pay, retirement, pension etc. by the company they work for. America herself is a Union, same principle applies but instead of for the citizens it's for the workers. What is so wrong with that?

The Business "Buddies" you refer to are company CEOs ... They are not Union and do not represent Unions but some do have collective bargaining agreements with Unions.

lets look at GM which is now going to make 7 of 10 cars in China, and move the Research and development to China aswell, this according to GMs own CEO, enjoy that good paying job pal, in China.

I watched the video then researched the claims and found them misleading.

Q: Is General Motors becoming ‘China Motors’ using taxpayer dollars?

A: No. The restructured GM is still based in Detroit and is still one-third owned by the U.S. government. But it sells nearly as many cars in China as in the U.S. and has continued expanding operations there.

Source

I am not going to repeat everything the site says and the sources used to debunk the video, just click and read but I did want to point out.

But since then, the “new” GM has enjoyed expanding sales and operations. For example, it announced in January that it is building a new, $200 million stamping plant in Arlington, Texas. And it states: “Since June 2009, the company has announced more than $6.9 billion of investment to upgrade or expand operations in 12 states, creating or retaining more than 17,600 jobs.”

The “new” GM has continued that overseas success. It sold a record 231,183 vehicles in China in May, up 21 percent from a year earlier, for example. That compares with 245,256 vehicles sold in the United States, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the highest in 33 months.

GM is becoming a global company, which is a smart thing to insure they do not go bankrupt again but they are also investing billions into the US and hiring 17,600 in 12 states.

Now if you want to argue that the vehicles sold in China should be made in the USA and exported to China then I am in full agreement there, would much rather see that too ...

reply to post by macaronicaesar


I agree with you, we never left the first one.

reply to post by detachedindividual


Get out of here with your reason and common sense, I want mindless party rhetoric! Political wizardry and smooth talking are the only things that can save us from the debt.

must be nice to report on self fulfilling prophecy's. since the fed is creating the recession through corrupt practices, why wouldn't they be able to predict it's decline.

Originally posted by CALGARIAN
AND CANADA IS WORRIED TOO... because of the US.

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada will fall into recession if Washington does not reach a deal by year-end to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday.

ca.reuters.com...

We have the same administration, same Senate, Same House...I don't see any movement when it comes to the fiscal cliff fight. They're both going to be obstinate and nothing will get fixed. It's very depressing.

reply to post by texasgirl


did you ever question why that is? my theory is that due to the global banking cartel and their fraudulent practices and corruptible behavior, we are all globally in this mess. given the fact that money=power in our current paradigm and given the fact that corruption runs rampant in our elected officials, why would they, or how could they fix anything related to the economy?

they cannot fix something they do not control and certainly not something that controls them.