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I know that a lot of folks on here think Obama is gonna lose, and I'll admit, his chances aren't "great"...
He's more likely to win than lose.
This is for a lot of reasons:
- incumbents tend to win
- he has the largest media reach of any candidate
- donors (read: investors) like stability
- most still blame Bush for Obama's failures
But, the main, the most important reason he could win is because the GOP candidates are all extremely flawed.
Let's look at the front runners.
Bachmann - She polls well with the "base," but is seen as, essentially, the Nancy Pelosi of the "right". In other words, she'll never gain a critical mass with Independents or non-read meat Republicans. Plus as a woman, she'll (probably) be competing with a more well known female candidate, Sarah Palin. And men, lots of men, will never vote for a woman. Sad but true.
Romney - He's a Mormon. He's a really rich write guy "from" New England, he's about as exciting as Michael Dukakis, in a coma. Plus he can barely be bothered to run for President. He just doesn't care enough. People sense this. The main reason why he leads so many polls is that he's seen as "electable," but he's not really, not on a national level.
Perry - As soon as people learn more about him, he's toast. American is pretty damn Christrian, but it's NOT Dominionist. Once the reality of what that means dawns on the country, all the smarm in the world won't save him. Plus, he's not actually that great at dealing with unscripted stuff. Worse than Obama even. He's a bubble-boy, as soon as that pops, well, the GOP won't solidify around him because he's not Pres material... maybe a VP candidate, prolly not.
Paul - As I've discussed on another thread, he just not the right combo of beliefs and salesman and public figure to win, and the party knows this. Plus his policies are pretty unpopular in his own party.
Palin - Palin doesn't poll well any more and is seen as a celebrity. Her weakness are still there and she'd be crushed in a general election, again.
Who COULD win?
The smart money in the GOP is lining up behind Romney, hoping that Mormonism will seem less important than good looks, charm and his "record"... which they think will play to indies... and it COULD. But getting America to accept a Mormon President is gonna be very close to impossible.
The dark horse, is Perry, who COULD find a way, with a great VP and a re-branding of his faith, to seem more mainstream. There's a chunk of folks that would love to make America a more "Christian Nation" and there's tons that would love to continue down Regean's deregulation path... Perry is their man... The party is basically locked in an internal debate about which one could ACTUALLY beat Obama.
But... from the outside looking in, there's no CLEAR front runner and it'll prolly come down to a few mistakes by one candidate and a few deals done by a few others...
So, if Obama wins, it won't be because he's hugely popular, it'll be because the GOP is in disarray and can't decide if it's a fiscal party or an ideological party...
It's fairly obvious that, unless something completely insane and unprecedented happens, Obama will be re-elected.
The GOP is, at this point, eating it's own candidates alive (always the threat is a primary) and so far the MOST consistently popular candidate is Mitt Romney. (Hilariously, this could be the mirror or 2004, when a struggling Democrat party choose a certain Massachusetts Senator as its candidate... remember what happened?)
A few things that should be clear at this point:
- The party refuses to align behind Ron Paul. That's not gonna change. Sorry guys.
- The party is very scared of Obama... one poor debate and they've started sticking the knife into Rick Perry... not because of his (insane) policies, but because of his performance. They think he can't win. They're right.
- The Tea Party won't have a real say in the outcome of the primaries (Bachmann is toast, Perry is floundering and the businessmen are winning...looks like we may get another CEO Presidential candidate.... just like Bush Jr.)
So, what does this all mean?
Well, look... do ANY of you think that Romney can ACTUALLY beat Obama? Really?
So, unless someone with a REAL chance (sorry Sarah) enters the field, expect a pretty definitive Obama win.
And whose to blame? The GOP of course. They allowed their ranks to be swamped with ideologues and now their party is completely divided.
Good news for those that don't like Republican "policies" (that's me) but bad news for those that like white rich guys as President.