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Why has Wall Street missed it so badly ? Elementary school students can understand the answer

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posted on Oct, 20 2004 @ 01:29 PM
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Until October 19, 2004 - 5 months after oil passed the $40 mark - we didn't hear the illuminati candidates Bush and Kerry or Wall Street questioning why they failed to forecast the evolution of oil prices nor the "official wisdom" that in the future oil prices will decrease.

Here is the first Wall Street linked article that poses both questions :
Is Oil Heading For $100? Why has Wall Street missed it so badly?

www.forbes.com...

Some excerpts, that also gives some hints at the answer for the first of those two questions :
NEW YORK - Yesterday, in writing about the rise in oil prices--which have roughly doubled in a year--I noted, "No one saw it coming." (See: "Oil Hits $55 Alarm; Greenspan Hits Snooze.")

As it turns out, a few people did see it. And now some of those seers are saying the recent "spike" is no spike at all, but the start of a long-term trend. It may be that the price of a barrel of oil is heading for $100, if not higher, by the end of the decade.
To be sure, the conventional wisdom is that oil prices, which fell a bit yesterday to about $53 per barrel, are going no higher and will likely fall back. That seems to be the view of Wall Street firms, most of which say as much in their research reports. Bear Stearns , for instance, last month forecast a $25 price in 2005. Even relative "bulls" like Goldman Sachs are talking about whether prices in the high $30 range might be sustained.
...
"To the best of my knowledge, not once [since 1998 when oil was around $11 per barrel] has any Wall Street firm forecast oil prices to be on a yearly uptrend," says Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, a New York investment manager and author of The Oil Factor (Warner Business 2004). Why has Wall Street missed it so badly? Leeb suggests that the answer lies not in economics, but in mass psychology, specifically studies of social conformity.
...
Leeb himself is forecasting higher, indeed skyrocketing, prices. He is not part of a crowd, but he is not all alone either. He is joined by, among others, Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Company International, an energy banking firm in Houston. Simmons speaks of a phenomenon called "Peak Oil" and says it is "as inevitable as death," though, like death, predicting its precise timing is not easy. Leeb and Simmons point out that, unlike the oil crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s, which was a political phenomenon, the current price increases are fueled by supply and demand, which are less transitory than politics.
...
Leeb says that during the last oil crisis, the world was producing at 70% capacity. Now it's at 99%.

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Note that the article doesn't even try to answer the second question. I will let you think about the answer. Hint : if you can perform basic arithmetic operations, you should have no trouble to find the key to the answer.

Start gathering data for those operations for instance at the mentioned previous day article "Oil Hits $55 Alarm; Greenspan Hits Snooze." Excerpt :

Unlike in the early 1980s, when most of the oil the U.S. consumed was still domestic, now 57% of the oil consumed in the U.S. is imported

forbes.com...

[edit on 20-10-2004 by MattMarriott]




posted on Oct, 20 2004 @ 05:36 PM
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well, I'll give you the answer, since nobody tried to find it.
according to the official numbers released weekly by the DOE (all you need is to perform a percent operation), the right quote is not 57% ... but 66.9%, as of the week of the Forbes article.
So officially none of the Wall Street analysts is able to perform such an elementary operation.


[edit on 27-10-2004 by MattMarriott]



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 04:43 PM
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People that checked the previous official explanations for the rise of oil prices (performing one or two basic arithmetic operations would have been enough) and thought that the utter limits of the grotesque had been reached ... well those people must now admit that they were wrong.

Here is how today's drop is justified : "Crude oil futures plunged almost 5 percent in New York, the biggest decline in five months, after (*) an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories rose more than expected."

(*) "after" is used to suggest "because".



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:08 PM
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I'd say the real "because" is addressed in this thread

I'd say today's oil price drop was due to speculation of a larger supply of oil available to the open market. The 5% drop is just a reflection of price inflation that has nothing to do with actual supply and demand.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 07:31 PM
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The link is about OPEC telling the US to tap the SPR. So if you think that the SPR has any influence in oil prices, then you are repeating the official explanation for today's drop - what I meant "with utter limits of grotesque"



posted on Oct, 28 2004 @ 05:33 PM
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Originally posted by MattMarriott
Here is how today's drop is justified : "Crude oil futures plunged almost 5 percent in New York, the biggest decline in five months, after (*) an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories rose more than expected."

(*) "after" is used to suggest "because".




So let's perform again some basic arithmetics to check the logic of Wall Street, OPEC & Co.

the SPR increased 4 million barrels in one week = the world output of just over ONE hour time.

---> OPEC tells the US to tap the SPR
---> oil prices slide 10%
---> Wall Street sends the Dow to 10,000

Now, none of this is strange for people that realised what times are we living in.



[edit on 28-10-2004 by MattMarriott]



posted on Nov, 1 2004 @ 12:41 PM
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take advantage of the last hours ... buying oil futures now means at least 15% profit in hours ... the question is : what does "profit" mean in the kingdom of satan ?



posted on Nov, 17 2004 @ 01:23 PM
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For more than two weeks ... but now the champagne is about to end



posted on Feb, 22 2005 @ 07:29 PM
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Originally posted by MattMarriott
For more than two weeks ... but now the champagne is about to end


Today? - check my post from today here
www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Feb, 22 2005 @ 07:50 PM
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MattMarriott?
I wonder and I'm just speculating here, but have you by chance correlated the fluctuations with the coincedence that India and China, mingled with Russia, are now full-throttle on getting their hands on as much oil as possible?
Battle For a Barrel: US Oil Corporations and Chinese, Russian and Indian National Oil Companies
THE AXIS OF OIL: China and Russia find a new way to advance their strategic ambitions
World economy: Our outlook for oil
US warned of east-west oil bidding war






seekerof



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