Who else predicted Obama would win ?

John Hogue correctly predicted a BHO victory.
He is 12/12 lifetime.

I voted the easter bunny but he lost.

Originally posted by Argyll
Well done!....you have called a 50/50 !

There is as much chance of you being right as there is of you being wrong!....what's your point again?

Incredibly difficult indeed. It is like winning the pick 7(pick your nose actually) lottery after seven draws have been made and failed to produce first place winners. Heads you win and tails I lose.

Please - Romney??!?? Nuff said...

I don't really see why predicting anything in a 50/50 race is that surprising or indicative of anything.

reply to post by randyvs


I'm with ya, i was telling people a year before the election that we were
going to get another 4 years of Obama. many thought i was nuts,
but guess i was not so nuts after all.

In a way I wanted Romney to win.. Obama sounded like a broken record from 4 years ago of what he said he was going to do and didnt do.

Originally posted by nalanda93
In a way I wanted Romney to win.. Obama sounded like a broken record from 4 years ago of what he said he was going to do and didnt do.

I tend to agree with you on that for the reasoning. I was among those in a mild state of shock that Obama won and did so, so handily. I at least expected a nail biter with legal fights to follow. Maybe a reverse of 2000 for contested outcomes and sore losers. (Of course, I didn't know then about a certain legal precedent/agreement from the 80's that literally prevents that from happening from one side of the isle).

Hearing a candidate campaign for change ..when he was the 4 years of past to be changing from ..was surreal. I just underestimated the overall deep hate for Bush and legacy that left, among the very legitimate reasons supporters saw to vote for Obama...not just against Romney. It's why I shudder at the mere mention of Jeb Bush like waking in an evil, warped haunted house we can't escape from. Oh..anything but him, even as a joke. The Bushes need political hedge trimmers.

...then of course, I came to realize so late...Romney and Obama would have taken us to the very same end point. One would have taken a different route for scenery and maybe we'd have felt better while traveling? ...but the final stop won't look much different I suppose.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000I was among those in a mild state of shock that Obama won and did so, so handily.

Then you can't have been paying attention for at least the last 6 months leading up to the election, because Nate Silver called an Obama victory by a solid margin all the way back in June 2012. Weren't you reading his blog?

Silver's predictions were astonishingly accurate:

In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, he correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

That same year, Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he predicted Republican victory in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats won.

(Source).

Obama's win came as no surprise to people who know how to count and aren't influenced by partisan pundits.

reply to post by Sankari

Thanks for the insults...and that approach is exactly why I've thrown away partisan politics entirely. It's ugly, destructive and divisive with almost NO other gain for it.

Believe it or not, Americans REALLY DID go out to vote for Romney on Nov. 7th. By your condescension, I know this will come as a total shock, but they really did make that vote figuring it wasn't a forgone conclusion for who would win the elections.

Hindsight may be 20/20 for saying 'how could he not have won?' but I'll tell you, your fortune teller calling a 100% outcome to the election clear back in JUNE?! Was one of dozens calling the election BOTH directions. 50% of them were going to be right, no matter what happened. Your guy chose the right 50% to join for predictions. That's about all it says to me.

The fact of the matter is, even Obama's people weren't 100% sure right into the election. They wouldn't have been beating the campaign trail like their lives and futures depended on it, right to the last hours...otherwise. That wasn't all done for show and simply fun games. It was a contest between the two men..and a contest it was. As much legitimate as by fraud...on both sides. One WOULD and DID win...but to suggest that was known in advance? Well.. I call that ignorance, personally.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by Sankari

 

Thanks for the insults...and that approach is exactly why I've thrown away partisan politics entirely. It's ugly, destructive and divisive with almost NO other gain for it.

Why the hell were you surprised that Obama won? What gave you the idea that he wouldn't? All the information was freely available; Nate Silver's blog had been extremely well publicised for at least four years by that time. Evidently you didn't read it.

Believe it or not, Americans REALLY DID go out to vote for Romney on Nov. 7th.

Of course they did. A lot of them. Just not as many as for Obama...

Hindsight may be 20/20 for saying 'how could he not have won?'

That's not what I said. I said why did were you surprised that Obama won, when the data was telling you the opposite? I guess you must have just ignored the data.

but I'll tell you, your fortune teller calling a 100% outcome to the election clear back in JUNE?! Was one of dozens calling the election BOTH directions. 50% of them were going to be right, no matter what happened.

Obviously, but the question is: why were they right?

Silver was right because he ignored the partisan pundits and worked out the numbers objectively. He wasn't just guessing, and he proved this by making detailed predictions about the election which were subsequently vindicated.

Your guy chose the right 50% to join for predictions.

That's right, and he didn't use guesswork. And he got it right in the previous election as well. And in the 2012 election he called the separate states and got nearly all of them right. His predictions were detailed, specific, and highly accurate. He didn't just say 'Obama will win.'

That's about all it says to me.

What?

reply to post by Sankari


(sigh) I'm not sure where the chat can really go when your position seems to be that even having elections was just kinda silly for how obvious it was that Obama would win.

We really do have a system of contested vote in the United States. However partisan and however rigged it's become.

You know, even the rigging of the system (required for the certainty you adhere to, in advance) works in it's own warped form of balance and that's the saddest thing about it. For every precinct that reported more votes than voters with a 99.9% Obama turnout to the utter exclusion of all others (and statistical possibility, while we're at it) there is a rigged voting machine like this one:



to remind us that however one sided the fraud and rigging looks at times..it's both sides rigging their own vote frauds and simply a quesiton of who is more skilled at it, in the end. Hell of a way to run a nation....but also why it's just foolish to think any of these elections are 100% slam dunk to anyone else.

Oh... Incidentally... The "landslide win" of Obama? It's really a definition of landslide...



Even those states he carried 90%+ by population and electoral vote totals? Weren't nearly that clear in real terms...



Both are from the Politico results of the 2012 race you're suggesting was just so over and done before it began, you figure that can be rammed home with an edge so sharp it would cut steel. However, as the maps show? This is a divided nation to say the VERY least. I'd never say Obama didn't earn his win. He did. We run by Electoral College in this nation, not popular vote and not state count. So, as others won before him, so has Obama.

I'd just think strangely of those who are SO pro-Obama, they figure there was never a contest in the first place. That would be failing to follow the ATS Motto.

Predicted???? Obama was chosen to become president long before the "elections". The election is a sham/scam. The next president is already chosen as well. Besides, the president is a puppet. A person is chosen to become the president. The elite know the public will worship this person and not question how he/she became president. The few people who will question this are labeled conspiracy nuts. That just goes to show how dumb the the average person is. It's a shame...