Intrade was out by "ONE" in 2008, "OBAMA WINS 2012"

It's really amazing how close they called it, check it out.

2008 Prediction & Actual

Here is 2012

OBAMA WINS

The real question now is will Gary Johnson get his 5% ?

I trust their prediction more than any poll. These are people who put their money where their mouth is.

You know what else is amazing? The amount of bias increase over 2008. I don't believe anything in the media any more. I think it is ALL bull****. I do not know ONE person voting for Obama tomorrow. In 2008 I knew lots.

Originally posted by AwakeinNM
You know what else is amazing? The amount of bias increase over 2008. I don't believe anything in the media any more. I think it is ALL bull****. I do not know ONE person voting for Obama tomorrow. In 2008 I knew lots.

I'm voting for Obama.

There, now you know one.

On election day 2004, after phony exit polls were released, intrade had Kerry up 86 to 14. It doesn't take much money, relative to the campaigns to manipulate numbers.

Nate Silver will have lots of enemies by this time tomorrow.

reply to post by alternateuniverse

Acording to the Redskins rule Romney already won. This prediction method has been sucesfull in the last 17 elections so it beats your method.. Sorry... en.wikipedia.org...

I guess we will see pretty quick how close they were, one thing is for sure the margin of victory for Obama will be smaller this time, more like Bush's win over Gore in 2000.

What I like about Intrade is people vote with their money on a wide range of polls, It's about investing on what the known facts are, not politics or emotions, people are trying to make some money here.

Well, at my local bookie (I'm from Europe) the odds on Romney to become president went from 3.0 (2-1) to 4.6 ( 18 -5) in last couple of days.

Obama wins this one, my bookie knows

An Actual Intrade Trader Comments On This

It's very interesting

I put a wager on Romney so if that religious doushebag and warmonger mormon wins i'm in a win win situation.

Dead on once again.