posted on Nov, 5 2012 @ 12:57 PM
Are people afraid to admit to pollsters that they will vote for Romney?
I am old enough to remember the 1992 British general election in which all polls showed the left wing labour party to be in the lead. All polls
running up to the election showed that the Labour party would have a majority in Parliament of between 19 to 23 seats.
Nonetheless, on the day, the right wing Conservatives won with 41.9% of the popular vote to Labour's 34.4%. This translated to the Conservatives
holding 336 seat to Labour's 271.
1992 British Election Polling
The result was such a shock to almost everyone that questions were asked repeatedly in the national media about what was wrong with the polls running
up to the election. This prompted the British Market Research Society to hold an investigation. It's results may have relevance to the US
The Market Research Society found that there existed a 'Shy Tory Factor'. In other words, a significant number of voters were unwilling to admit
that they were planning to vote for a right wing party. The polling companies found this effect was strongest when people were telephoned or
personally interviewed. Interestingly, the effect also existed with exit polls.
Shy Tory Factor
In light of the fact that this election has been one of the most polarized in decades and its racial undertones, is there a 'Shy Romney Factor'
where people are unwilling to admit that they won't vote for the incumbent black civil rights lawyer but rather the white Mormon businessman
I suspect there is. I wouldn't be surprised if many Democrats and for that matter many Republicans are surprised when the voters real choice is