Is The Election Breaking Towards Obama?

reply to post by Taiyed


No, the election is actually breaking towards Romney. The simple reason is, is that most of the polling done so far has a 7 to 11 point over sampling of democrats than republicans. Therefore, if Obama has 48 and Romney has 48, the actual real percentages minus at least 7 points to a more even and realistic count would be like this....

Obama 41 and Romney 48

The remaining independent voters who have said they are undecided always break for the challenger at the last few days. So there it is.

I know this because I do this stuff and know how it is read. You always look at the internals and descriptions of the sampling and then do the deductions based on the overall averages of elections. If the 2010 election was put into the mix, the resulting polls would read...

Romney 54 and Obama 41


And there you have it....

reply to post by Fromabove


Sorry, I don't believe you.

If you did this for a living, you would know that pollsters don't target a certain percentage of Dems or Reps. They take a random sample, and ask the people how they identify. Poll after poll proves that there are in fact more Dems than Reps in America.

So when you, and others try to "unskew" the polls, you are actually skewing them. Do you honestly think that each poll should poll the exact same amount of Dems and Reps? If you do, then I'm sorry but you don't understand the polling process nor do you understand statistics.

Ever single piece of data that is available right now suggest Obama is leading. The only way Romney supporters can claim he isn't is by saying that all that data is wrong. But if all that data is wrong, then you really can't claim that you have any data to suggest Romney is winning. If all the data is wrong, it is all junk, and no one has any clue on who is leading.

So sorry, I understand Romney supporters are desperate, but you can't just start adding more Repbulicans to the polls to get the results you want to see.

reply to post by Fromabove


Are you seriously suggesting that an equal percentage of Republicans and Democrats should be asked who they are going to vote for?

I don't normally make predictions but....Obama 50% Romney 50%

Ohio Early Voting polling locations are having to stay open later than scheduled due to THOUSANDS of people that are still in line.

This is in cities and these are a large amount of African Americans, great news for Obama.

By the way, same thing happened yesterday.

www.latimes.com...


I'm all excited, I don't care who wins or loses, but this is the closing days of the election and I'm pumped. I've been watching news today, MSNBC and CNN are pumped as well. Fox News, not so much...they are still trying to push Benghazi, not talking election much.

reply to post by Fromabove


OMG, are you Dick Morris?

I just saw him on Fox News and he said EXACTLY what you just posted...and I mean EXACTLY.

So are you Dick Morris, or are you just a fan of his?

The "polls" should be called "the pole" because we all get a shaft when they announce them.

The "polls" does not reflect the number of disappointed members of the Dems and Repubs that are going to vote third party. It's a skewed view...regardless which media mouthpiece is puking it out.

I have stated my intention for several years as to how I am going to approach this and other elections...I AM a card carrying Libertarian and that is how I voted in 08 and that is how I will vote this time.

If I had to guess, I am going to call a Romney win. I don't like the guy for a bunch of reasons and I don't like Obama for a bunch of reasons as well....a couple of issues and gripes are the same for both candidates.

I wish I was wrong...I wish that the skies would part and a ray of hope would shine down and people wake up from the two party nightmare...but I don't think that is going to happen any time soon. All I can do is cast my vote for what I think is right and help the Libertarians get the 5% popular vote. If that happens, the next election cycle will be better for us (campaign finance and funding).

reply to post by Jeremiah65


I'm sure there are some polls out there that include the third party candidates.

Maybe later, I will go look for a couple. If I remember correctly, when Gary Johnson is included in the polls, Romney does even worse.

I'm watching Romney at a rally right now in Virginia.

And he looks tired and defeated. I saw Obama earlier, and he is pumped the hell up.

Originally posted by Taiyed
I'm watching Romney at a rally right now in Virginia.

And he looks tired and defeated. I saw Obama earlier, and he is pumped the hell up.

Maybe he needs a jumbo? He can rest when he gets in, and starts taking orders.

Originally posted by Taiyed
reply to post by Fromabove

 

Sorry, I don't believe you.

If you did this for a living, you would know that pollsters don't target a certain percentage of Dems or Reps. They take a random sample, and ask the people how they identify. Poll after poll proves that there are in fact more Dems than Reps in America.

So when you, and others try to "unskew" the polls, you are actually skewing them. Do you honestly think that each poll should poll the exact same amount of Dems and Reps? If you do, then I'm sorry but you don't understand the polling process nor do you understand statistics.

Ever single piece of data that is available right now suggest Obama is leading. The only way Romney supporters can claim he isn't is by saying that all that data is wrong. But if all that data is wrong, then you really can't claim that you have any data to suggest Romney is winning. If all the data is wrong, it is all junk, and no one has any clue on who is leading.

So sorry, I understand Romney supporters are desperate, but you can't just start adding more Repbulicans to the polls to get the results you want to see.

I wanted to clarify some misinformation in your post which states "you would know that pollsters don't target a certain percentage of Dems or Reps" however:
When developing the model for the sample which will serve as representative of a given population's voice on an issue or candidate, pollsters include critical information including: that population's political party affiliation, turnout of said party in prior elections, demographic changes in a given area, among several other key variables which will allow for an accurate representative control group.

reply to post by NickDC202


There is no mis-information in my post.

It is true that the don't target a specific percentage of each party. Of course they sample the population at the appropriate levels based on demographics, otherwise it would be a bad sample.

None of this changes the fact that there is no data suggesting that the polls are biased.

Originally posted by Taiyed
reply to post by NickDC202

 

There is no mis-information in my post.

It is true that the don't target a specific percentage of each party. Of course they sample the population at the appropriate levels based on demographics, otherwise it would be a bad sample.

None of this changes the fact that there is no data suggesting that the polls are biased.

This is a subject I have a degree in and the industry I work in, I'm sorry but you're absolutely wrong. I don't write that to be rude or cause an argument; I admire and appreciate your passion. If this is a topic that interests you, I'd encourage you to take the time to research how a representative sample group is built for a political polling model.

reply to post by NickDC202


I'm not sure what you are arguing. Yes, pollsters use demographics and some other measures to guide their sample. But they do not say "We need to target 35% Democrats 33% Republican and 32% Independents".

There is no data to suggest that the polls are skewed, if they are, then they all are and no one has any idea on how the election will end up.

Originally posted by Taiyed
reply to post by NickDC202

 

I'm not sure what you are arguing. Yes, pollsters use demographics and some other measures to guide their sample. But they do not say "We need to target 35% Democrats 33% Republican and 32% Independents".

There is no data to suggest that the polls are skewed, if they are, then they all are and no one has any idea on how the election will end up.

Fact: When developing a model for political polls, pollsters target a certain number of people based on political affiliation using data regarding party affiliation in a certain area and the percentage breakdown of party identification of those who voted in the previous major election; this is done to accurately represent the population and the party affiliation of likely voters. This is done to provide an accurate prediction of likely election outcome.

reply to post by NickDC202


I don't know what to tell you.

Go ahead and find any of the polling companies methodology that shows that they specifically target party affiliation.

They target a certain amount of women, men, white, black, hispanic and income levels...they don't specifically target party affiliation.

If you think they do, great, go find the methodology and post a link to it.

Originally posted by Taiyed
I'm watching Romney at a rally right now in Virginia.

And he looks tired and defeated. I saw Obama earlier, and he is pumped the hell up.

Is this pumped? Wahhh... Boo Hoo... Snif... Sniff... Oh the irony in your comment, I find this picture kind of hysterical.

Originally posted by Taiyed
reply to post by NickDC202

 

I don't know what to tell you.

Go ahead and find any of the polling companies methodology that shows that they specifically target party affiliation.

They target a certain amount of women, men, white, black, hispanic and income levels...they don't specifically target party affiliation.

If you think they do, great, go find the methodology and post a link to it.

I have absolutely no political affiliation; I have simply shared my expertise on the subject of political polling by stating nothing but the facts about how a poll is constructed in order to provide the most accurate forecast of how a given population might vote.

I don't understand why you are wasting so much energy arguing about a topic that you clearly know nothing about and you simply refuse to take the time to do some research to learn about this topic. I am stating facts based on years of professional experience in this industry.