Is The Election Breaking Towards Obama?

This last week of polling has shown a distinct advantage for Obama. It seems like the eleciton may be breaking in Obama's favor.

Here is a graphic of all the Sunday polls conducted in Battleground States.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...


This shows a clear advantage for Obama heading into Election day. He seems to have edged out an advantage in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and most shockingly of all Virginia.

The only Battleground that Romney is firmly holding is North Carolina. Florida and Colorado are pure toss ups that will go either way.


Now I don't like National Polling, it really tells you nothing about the outcome of the election. But Republicans and Romney supporters have been using National Polls to claim that Romney is winning. Well the last round of National Polls conducted on Sunday show that "lead" Romney has had in National Polls has slipped away and Obama is now leading in those polls as well.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...



Othere than the recent polls, there are other indicators that suggest that the Election will break toward Obama.

- Obama is leading in early voting
- Obama's job approval is at 50% ( www.realclearpolitics.com... )
- Obama's favorability is above 50% ( www.realclearpolitics.com... )
- And Obama has multiple paths to 270, with Ohio or not. Romney does not, Romney has one very narrow path to 270, and it includes Ohio AND Florida...both which he does not currently lead in.

It will be a fun election night to watch. It will be a close race and the margins are going to be small which suggests it is going to be a long night (I'm taking off the next day). But as of right now, it looks like Obama will be able to pull of a victory by some very slim margins.

From a UK perspective if I had to call it I would probably say Obama will just about wing it. Romney made himself a lot of enemies here when he criticized our hosting of the Olympics, as we gave a very good show I feel that also made him look weak in peoples eyes over here.

reply to post by hotel1

Yah but Americans like it when you say that other countries suck. Hardly matters if theres any truth to it.

Obama was leading for a long time until he threw the first debate. It gave Romney a chance to catch up.

It was Obama just following orders. TPTB dont want an Obama second term and heres why:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by gladtobehere


And Obama is ignoring Netenyahu.....Romney is a die hard zionist.

Plus Romney raised more money than Obama, with the help of the banking mafia....

It is clear the elites want Obama to lose

Originally posted by gladtobehere
reply to post by hotel1

 

Yah but Americans like it when you say that other countries suck. Hardly matters if theres any truth to it.

Obama was leading for a long time until he threw the first debate. It gave Romney a chance to catch up.

It was Obama just following orders. TPTB dont want an Obama second term and heres why:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I agree with your observation, from the outside this looks like being one of the closest run, and most devisife election in recent US history.

reply to post by Taiyed


Yeah but you are using the New York Times site. If you visit realclearpolitics.com ... oh wait, it says the same thing there. Well, I am sure one of our esteemed colleagues can explain in at least three posts why they are wrong, you know, because that groundhog didn't see his shadow, or some other nonsense. I used to delight in watching conservatives squirm, now I just feel bad and awkward when they foam at the mouth explaining how all those polls are wrong, but the one poll they took a few weeks ago is the one that is really right. If it isn't libruls cooking the numbers, it's a wrong sample or some other nonsense. But you will notice that like the one time Rmoney led a poll, they were all "Well, well, well, demoncraps, looks like your messiah is going down this november." It really would be funny, if it wasn't so pathetic.

reply to post by gladtobehere


So, just because he threw the first debate, he loses even though he clearly won the others? I am not saying you are but there clearly seems to be a bunch of Romney shills running around the boards today. Before you go spouting that I am an Obama supporter, I am not voting for either.

Is The Election Breaking Towards Obama?

In a picture...yes:



It doesn't appear as if even Romney himself has enthusiasm or momentum.

One more piece of information to add.

The Latino vote is projected to be the highest ever in history, and the majority of them are voting for Obama.

www.latinodecisions.com...

“With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” said Matt Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions. “If Latinos turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama.”

He will win if the GOP doesn't rig the elections. Reading about Hart Intercivic (or the surpressing of early voting in Florida) gave me the shivers. The organization of the elections really sucks for a nation calling itself the greatest democracy (no offense meant). In the Netherlands voting machines were abolished when it became clear they could be tampered with and here you have politicians virtually owning companies that make voting machines. That ain't right, or what.

reply to post by Spinoza73


That's capitalism. Someone has to own them and who better than private citizens. I mean they would never do anything nefarious, right?

OHIO, OHIO,OHIO.

That is where it will come down to. If Obama takes it he will win. If not, he still has a chance but not much.

One thing I will predict though. If Obama loses the popular vote but carries the electoral college, you can kiss the electoral college goodbye.

Republicans won't like it if it's not working for them anymore, like it did for Bush.

reply to post by BritofTexas


Yep, Obama can win without Ohio. It will be more difficult, but he can do it. Romney can't.

With Ohio, Obama has so many paths. He can lose MI, but win VA (vice/versa). He can lose both and win CO. If he doesn't win Ohio, he can still win by getting VA and MI. Or MI and CO.


Romneys paths are less favorable.

His best path is that he has to win FL, OH, VA, NC, and CO. If he loses OH, VA, NC, or CO, he would have to win MI to make up for the lose. And he has been trailing in Michigan for a long time.


If Obama takes Florida, it's over no matter what.

So it seems not many people want to discuss the latest polls.

It is the day before the election, and no one is interested? After months and months of bickering back and forth, and cherry picking this poll or that poll, over analyzing the debtaes and crowd sizes, and trying to count who sees more yard signs (or who is stealing more yard signs)....and the day before the election everyone has just lost interest?

I'm excited, how can you not be?

reply to post by BritofTexas


One more piece of information from Ohio.

It's a poll most haven't been looking at.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

The race for the US Senate seat in Ohio, the Democrat is up by 5 points. This is just another piece of information that suggests that Ohio will swing Democratic in the election.

reply to post by Taiyed


I think the margin of error in the polls needs to be expanded.

For one thing. Phone polls can't call your mobile, so the only ones who get polled are those with a land-line who answer unsolicited phone calls.

Another reason is most Teapartyers call themselves independent. Even though Romney's wife has more chance of becoming Pope than a Democrat has of getting a teabaggers vote.

I have no horse in this race and feel neither candidate is an acceptable choice for president. I also have a degree in political science.

I would urge folks to not overlook that all of the intangibles which impact elections favor Romney while the polls lean Obama.

I don't know which candidate will win but I am confident that the polls will be off because: the excitement/energy of 2008 is non-existent which would suggest a base/traditional turnout similar to 2004. Additionally being that this is the first Presidential election since the percentage of homes with landlines is at a record low and an even lower percentage of people that don't answer blocked numbers/numbers they don't recognize (on landline or mobile) is even lower. This is key because the manner in which we utilize technology and the methods of polling haven't been tested on this level.

Needless to say it will be an interesting night tomorrow.

reply to post by BritofTexas


Some polling companies call cell phones.

Ironically, the ones that give Romney an edge (gallup and rasmussen) don't call cell phones, only land lines.

I believe I saw a poll or study that showed that people who only have cell phones tend to lean more democratic than republican.

But I really don't think the effect will be that much, I do think Obama will get bumps in election turn out as compared to his polling as he did in 2008.

i hope obama does win at this point, although he is my third choice. i'm really hoping he has some tricks up his sleeve, because at this point his cabinet and most of the legislative branch pretty much suck. mitt would definitely take us to hell if he got in.

Originally posted by hotel1
From a UK perspective if I had to call it I would probably say Obama will just about wing it. Romney made himself a lot of enemies here when he criticized our hosting of the Olympics, as we gave a very good show I feel that also made him look weak in peoples eyes over here.

Romney may not be liked for what he said about the UK Olympics but he was 100% correct.

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