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When poll’s unspun, it looks like Romney’s won

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posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 08:48 AM
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There is an awful lot of talk about how pivotal the State of Ohio is in this year's Presidential election. Just how pivotal remains to be seen...Ohio has 18 Electoral College votes, and the last figures I read showed that 141 Votes are still in the "toss up" column.

However, as an observer, it is difficult to sort out who is likely to win in Ohio when even the Pollsters are stacking the deck with their biases...


...the latest CBS/New York Times poll shows that Barack Obama is leading there by 50% to 45%. Maybe it’s time for the Democrats to break out the champagne...(but)...The pollster — Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute — didn’t publicize the raw results that they got when they actually called people in Ohio. They tweaked them first. And by tweaked them, I mean they pumped up the Democratic sample by 8%


The old saying says, there are lies, damned lies and statistics...apparently there are also lies posing as statistics.


...buried in that same poll is the finding that Republicans are actually 14% more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are. And the poll also shows that Romney has a 6% advantage with independents — those voters who are not registered with either party, and are thus more likely to be persuadable


So, they used a 4-year old "voter enthusiasm" adjuster...which is disputed directly within their own poll....interesting.


...as of last Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted in advance polls. That’s down 181,275 from the Obama wave four years ago. And 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early. That’s up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

Together that’s a 257,000 vote swing towards the Republicans just in the advance polls. Which is shocking when you realize that Obama only won Ohio by 262,000 votes last time.


The above, coupled with very recent surveys of people across America who have actually voted are showing Romney solidly in the lead (not that the election will be decided by overall popular vote), just might be cause for pause for those who are feeling comfortable about an Obama win in Ohio

www.sunnewsnetwork.ca...




posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 08:56 AM
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Sorry, your wrong. Visit realclearpolitics.com, unfortunately, you'll probably say that's biased, too, because they are predicting an Obama win.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 08:59 AM
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reply to post by mobiusmale
 


The pollsters don't target a specific party, it is a random sample.

It's just a fact that there are more Democratic leaning peope then there are Republicans, so when they ask the person they called, "Are you Democrat, Republican, or Independent", of course there should be more Dems than Reps.

To claim that the only "fair" poll would include an equal number of Dems and Reps is showing that you don't understand statistics.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:05 AM
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To be clear, it is the author of the linked article believes that the numbers were improperly "tweaked". I am not an expert on statistics or polling methods.

The poll "results", though, do seem to be at odds with what is actually taking place at the advance polls in Ohio and elsewhere...



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:12 AM
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reply to post by mobiusmale
 





posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:12 AM
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Sorry Double post.
edit on 4-11-2012 by newcovenant because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:13 AM
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Originally posted by DarkKnight76
Sorry, your wrong. Visit realclearpolitics.com, unfortunately, you'll probably say that's biased, too, because they are predicting an Obama win.



The “Ohio firewall” precariously stands for President Barack Obama, but a strong Republican turnout could enable Mitt Romney to tear it down on Election Day. The final Dispatch Poll shows Obama leading 50 percent to 48 percent in the Buckeye State. However, that 2-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error, plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.


www.dispatch.com...

Real Clear Politics only has Obama ahead by 2.8% as well...

I am not calling for a win by either candidate...I am saying that based on the most recent "facts", Ohio is not as safe a bet for Obama as many hope or claim.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:15 AM
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reply to post by Taiyed
 


I never understood that argument, that because more people IDd as democrats, it's biased. I just think all the anti-Obama types are getting nervous and are unhappy that they aren't leading anywhere.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:17 AM
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All of the Collegiate vote will sway to Romney, that was predetermined as they usurped Ron Paul.

So if they do determine the next president, it will be Romney/Ryan.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:20 AM
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My gut tells me Obama will win, but only barely, possibly as close as Bush/Gore in 2000 (271-267). It won't be a landslide no matter who wins.

/TOA



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:24 AM
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reply to post by mobiusmale
 


Vegas says otherwise, and I consider them to be the experts.

The polls are useless, because the only people taking polls, are people that still have landlines, and are willing to answer their phone and talk politics to a stranger. Plus, the questions are always slanted one way or another; there is no such thing as a neutral poll.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:33 AM
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Originally posted by darkhorserider
reply to post by mobiusmale
 


Vegas says otherwise, and I consider them to be the experts.

The polls are useless, because the only people taking polls, are people that still have landlines, and are willing to answer their phone and talk politics to a stranger. Plus, the questions are always slanted one way or another; there is no such thing as a neutral poll.


Okay, I'll bite.

What is "Vegas" saying about who will win Ohio?



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:34 AM
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Polling has become just another way to effect election results. I don't trust a single one of them. How this could be a close race is hard to fathom. Yet, with the media jumping into politics more everyday is brainwashing the masses.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 09:45 AM
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reply to post by mobiusmale
 


Well, not specific to Ohio, but Obama is a 4 to 1 favorite, with Romney a 3 to 1 underdog by Vegas standards.

$16 million riding on election outcome.

Actually, if you scroll down, it looks like the Democrat ticket is favored in Ohio as well. (or, I could be reading that backwards, I always get them mixed up)


Ohio: 3/10 Dem | 12/5 Rep

edit on 4-11-2012 by darkhorserider because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 10:37 AM
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Originally posted by darkhorserider
reply to post by mobiusmale
 


$16 million riding on election outcome.


Ohio: 3/10 Dem | 12/5 Rep

edit on 4-11-2012 by darkhorserider because: (no reason given)


that's putting your money where your mouth is, for firm believer of either candidate, it's time to make some quick bucks.. perhaps.. to buy yourself a new car..

edit on 4-11-2012 by betaiso because: spelling



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 10:40 AM
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Originally posted by mobiusmale
To be clear, it is the author of the linked article believes that the numbers were improperly "tweaked". I am not an expert on statistics or polling methods.

The poll "results", though, do seem to be at odds with what is actually taking place at the advance polls in Ohio and elsewhere...


Obama is winning the early voting in Ohio.

Even Romney's campaign admits this.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 10:52 AM
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Hear it now: Obama WILL WIN.

And as a result of this win, the available bandwidth here on these forums will increase a hundred-fold!! This will be due to the Neo-Cons here being too busy wiping their tears with TISSUES rather than using their hands to pound their keyboards spewing 24/7 nonsense propaganda at ATS!!


Come on Tuesday night!!

edit on 4-11-2012 by YourWIFI because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 11:22 AM
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It looks like a Romney win to me.

Its basically tied, maybe with a slight edge to Obama in the polls, but reading the tea leaves here, with an incumbent president under 50% both nationally and in the battleground states...and with voter intensity and independents breaking at least somewhat against him...I would expect Romney to outperform his poll numbers by a few points. As close as it is, I think it'll be enough, too.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 11:31 AM
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I don't care who wins, I just want :

- muse7
- Wrabbit2000
- xuenchen
- elouina

To go back to oblivion, those guys are tiresome.



posted on Nov, 4 2012 @ 11:46 AM
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One should always keep in mind that the polls are not to find out who people will vote for, but to steer the weak into voting "the right way." they are a kind of persuasion process that uses very, very sophisticated mind control techniques to manipulate those who participate, and, manipulate those who thing the polls are an indicator of commonality. Those who are weak will desire to "vote the way others are voting" to be part of the winning side. By carefully crafting questions, and carefully presenting the polling data, they can easily convince a large swath of the population to vote the candidate that 'will win" so they feel a part of a winning team. The polling process isn't designed to test the pulse of they mythological "American People" but to manipulate them.




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