President Obama set to win Popular vote and Electoral college.

Fresh from Nate Silver,

Mr. Obama’s lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods. The states in which every site has Mr. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes — one more than the president needs to clinch victory. The states in which everyone has Mr. Romney ahead represent 206 electoral votes. That leaves five states, and 61 electoral votes, unaccounted for — but Mr. Obama would not need them if he prevails in the states where he is leading in the polls.

Suppose, for example, that you take the consensus forecast in each state. (By “consensus” I just mean: the average of the different forecasts.) Then you weigh it based on what each state’s share of the overall turnout was in 2008, in order to produce an estimate of the national popular vote.

Do the math, and you’ll find that this implies that Mr. Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest.

What if turnout doesn’t look like it did in 2008? Instead, what if the share of the votes that each state contributed was the same as in 2004, a better Republican year?

That doesn’t help to break the discord between state and national polls, unfortunately. Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout.

Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.

In the meantime, the state polls continue to hint that Mr. Obama remains the favorite to win the Electoral College — and if the state polls are right, he may well be the favorite in the popular vote as well.

Five Thirty Eight

I know some people are math challenged but over at Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver is doing some serious math crunching and the results he's getting indicate that Barack Obama is not only winning the Electoral College, but he also leads nationally by 2.1 percentage points. Contrary to what many of the national polls show.

reply to post by muse7


NEW YORK TIMES - Prior to taking anything here seriously - Please consider the faulty leftist source...........Nate Silver is a notorious liar and a Marxist to boot -

A little expose on little Nate

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Obama gonna win.

If he is a statistical anomaly.

Romney raised more money than him and is backed by the banking cartel. The candidate that raises the most money wins like 95% of the time.

And EXCLUSIVE: Romney Campaign Endorses Voter Suppression

This morning, Real Clear Politics poll averages shows that Obama has regained the lead in the popular vote for the first time since the first debate.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

reply to post by Vitruvian


expose?

More like a rant from a conservative nut job! Those are nothing more than cheap personal insults

Originally posted by Vitruvian
reply to post by muse7


A little expose on little Nate

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

edit on 2-11-2012 by Vitruvian because: txt

For the love of God...did you just rebut an intelligent and thorough argument grounded in mathematics and well...reality...with..."He sounds like a girl...?"

Honestly the partisan politics have eroded the intelligence of folks both on the left and the right, but the far right seems to recently have slipped into idealogical retardation! Heads up -- You thinking someone seems nerdy doesn't invalidate what they say, Paul Revere didn't warn the British, the founding fathers did not free the slaves and women who are raped can get pregnant.

reply to post by Vitruvian


That's not an expose, it's an elephant having a hissy fit.