posted on Oct, 29 2012 @ 07:52 AM
Originally posted by jtma508
reply to post by detachedindividual
While I agree with the sentiment of your post, please go to the link I provided in my earlier post (maybe 6 above yours
urbansurvival.com...) and look at the trending of 7+ earthquake frequencies in the chart a lttle ways down the page. That IS historical
data (going back to 1973) and there is no question that stronger quakes are trending up. Tony posts a second chart (not on the page linked) that
shows a correlated trend of smaller quakes tredning in the opposite direction. Not fear-mongering but there is absolutely no question that something
First of all, is there a source that is valid, unbiased and not trying to sell survival products? I am willing to read any data, but I will not
blindly trust a blogger who has a vested interest in trying to scare people into buying things (I'm in the online sales business, I am well aware of
the sales methods of people like this, and Alex Jones etc)
Also, EQ activity trending up does not equate to there being more powerful quakes after a 7. I would not disagree that scientific data suggests that
geological activity is on the increase, but I haven't seen any evidence that the pattern of EQ activity for specific regions and events have
The rate of EQ activity is a completely different subject to that of assuming that mag 7 quakes are more often a precursor to larger quakes. How many
times has that happened in the previous decade? I'll bet there is only one example, and that will be the Japanese 9 quake. If there are more
examples, I would like to see them.
You also have to ask what the time window is. Will a 7 quake now, and an 8 quake in a years time be used as "evidence" that larger quakes are
increasingly following an initial one? When do you reset the clock, after a week, a month, a year, a decade?
In all honesty there is just no evidence to suggest that a larger quake will follow this 7.7. It could happen, but I think - using actual science and
the laws of probability - it is MORE LIKELY that there will be a series of after shocks all the same of lower than the original 7.7.
But, once again, plenty of people here seemingly wish for more drama and excitement, and they will actively encourage wild speculation and
scaremongering in order to get their little kicks, all while ignoring the actual science and data that shows what they wish for is unlikely.