Romney DOUBLES his lead in national poll released hours after third debate

A new Rasmussen poll, conducted pre-final Presidential debate, reveals that Romney had increased his lead over Obama, with Romney expected to poll 50% to Obama's 46%.

Importantly, Romney's lead in swing states was 5%.

The Republican candidate held a four-point lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll released on Tuesday, with 50 per cent of the vote compared to 46 per cent for the President. In Monday's poll he led by two points.

In addition, Romney's lead was five points in swing states and as many as nine points among self-declared independent voters.

The poll was released just a few hours after the third and last debate of the presidential election campaign, which saw the two candidates clash over foreign affairs in Boca Raton, Florida.

Daily Mail

It should be noted that the Rasmussen poll was conducted before the third debate.

While both a CNN and CBS poll showed that viewers felt Obama had won the third debate, it is open to question whether Obama can reel in Romney's commanding 4% lead, especially in light of the Republican 5% pre-debate lead in crucial swing states.

The danger for the Democrats is that while Obama arguably produced a strong performance in the third debate, that it is too little, too late.

I watched the entire debate and HOW Mitt Romney is ahead now is beyond me. Obama clearly won that debate... Mitt was flailing like a fish out of water. I think the creators of these polls are confused... or maybe its the American public that is confused...

Nope, its me that is confused.... Must be too early (ETA) Didn't notice you said "before the debate the poll was conducted."

What did you expect? Obama thought making jokes about our military and constantly lying about things like leaving troops in Iraq was a good idea, but they backfired. I knew the second Obama started making jokes about bayonets, horses and aircraft carriers that he just screwed himself. It wasn't funny at all and DEFINITELY not presidential.

The media was out trying to make those comments the highlight of Obama's night, which was another clue that he stepped in it.

Originally posted by TheSparrowSings
I watched the entire debate and HOW Mitt Romney is ahead now is beyond me. Obama clearly won that debate... Mitt was flailing like a fish out of water.

I think the creators of these polls are confused... or maybe its the American public that is confused...

Nope, its me that is confused.... Must be too early (ETA) Didn't notice you said "before the debate the poll was conducted."

edit on 23/10/2012 by TheSparrowSings because: (no reason given)

I think you just see what you want to see. What did you think when Obama made those childish comments that had nothing to do with the point Romney was making? How about when Obama caused Romney of wanting to keep troops in Iraq, when he himself (as president) tried to strike a deal to keep more troops in Iraq?

The problem with folks like you is that you've become MSM drones.

Originally posted by TheSparrowSings
I watched the entire debate and HOW Mitt Romney is ahead now is beyond me. Obama clearly won that debate... Mitt was flailing like a fish out of water.

I think the creators of these polls are confused... or maybe its the American public that is confused...

Nope, its me that is confused.... Must be too early (ETA) Didn't notice you said "before the debate the poll was conducted."

edit on 23/10/2012 by TheSparrowSings because: (no reason given)

It is your preconceived notion. I hate both and I saw Obama being roughed up by Romney. I think its all scripted but I came away seeing Romney as the clear winner.

reply to post by ollncasino


I would humbly like to take a brief moment to laugh hysterically.

(pause for laugh)

Okay! I wonder how THIS will be spun?

Originally posted by ollncasino
While both a CNN and CBS poll showed that viewers felt Obama had won the third debate, it is open to question whether Obama can reel in Romney's commanding 4% lead, especially in light of the Republican 5% pre-debate lead in crucial swing states.

Commanding 4% lead in a single poll. You need to monitor something like 538 to get the bigger picture, which accounts for all the polls, and other factors.

Right now, they give Obama a 70% chance of winning the election (as of early this morning) - more interestingly, it gives Ohio a 50/50 chance of deciding the election, where Obama currently has a 72% chance of winning. Say what you want about 538, but it was almost dead-on for the 2008 election. Now what say you?

reply to post by PvtHudson


Yes, it was funny.

How are you supposed to act when you are facing a man that supposedly has been getting intelligence briefings, yet shows such an utter lack of understanding of modern warfare?

Romney clearly does not understand foreign policy, or how to make things happen in a non-unilatteral way.

He said a lot of nice things and pretty much agreed with the President so much I though he was going to endorse Obama.

reply to post by redtic

Nate Silver's Flawed Model

This is the real problem with Silver’s model in the eyes of many Romney backers — the “weighting” he puts into state polls gives an edge to Obama, and the distribution of that weighting is highly subjective.

Now, I'm sure you'll reject this. I'm not sure what to make of it myself. But since you mentioned 538, I thought this might be of interest.

Originally posted by MystikMushroom
reply to post by PvtHudson

 

Yes, it was funny.

How are you supposed to act when you are facing a man that supposedly has been getting intelligence briefings, yet shows such an utter lack of understanding of modern warfare?

Obama was the one who showed a lack of understanding. Besides the fact that Marines still use bayonets AND horses, the joke had nothing at all to do with Romney's point about keeping the Navy modern and strong. It was an infantile joke that did nothing but show Obama is more a clown than the leader of america.

Originally posted by redtic

Originally posted by ollncasino
While both a CNN and CBS poll showed that viewers felt Obama had won the third debate, it is open to question whether Obama can reel in Romney's commanding 4% lead, especially in light of the Republican 5% pre-debate lead in crucial swing states.

Commanding 4% lead in a single poll. You need to monitor something like 538 to get the bigger picture, which accounts for all the polls, and other factors.

Right now, they give Obama a 70% chance of winning the election (as of early this morning) - more interestingly, it gives Ohio a 50/50 chance of deciding the election, where Obama currently has a 72% chance of winning. Say what you want about 538, but it was almost dead-on for the 2008 election. Now what say you?

Oh it isnt just a single poll, Gallop says the same thing and if you actually look at the chart, youll see that its been pretty consistent since Oct12

reply to post by ararisq


Not really sure what you watched but Obama crushed Romney.
Romney looked like an idiot. He knows nothing about the military and his 1916 comment
about the navy just showed how much of a tool he is. Not saying the president isn't a tool
but Romney just got schooled.

Originally posted by BobM88
reply to post by redtic

 

Nate Silver's Flawed Model

This is the real problem with Silver’s model in the eyes of many Romney backers — the “weighting” he puts into state polls gives an edge to Obama, and the distribution of that weighting is highly subjective.

Now, I'm sure you'll reject this. I'm not sure what to make of it myself. But since you mentioned 538, I thought this might be of interest.

Fair enough, but if that's the best criticism that's out there of his "flawed model", then it doesn't change my opinion of it. If you can show me a more comprehensive model with a better track record, I'm all ears. At the very least, it's leaps and bounds better than claiming a victory based on a single (some would say biased) poll.

reply to post by redtic


As I said...I don't know what to make of that article either. We'll see on the 6th if Nate Silver is correct again. Personally, I have no idea how it will play out. I don't think there's a news source out there that is honest, so God only knows what's really going on.

It is your preconceived notion. I hate both and I saw Obama being roughed up by Romney. I think its all scripted but I came away seeing Romney as the clear winner.

Although I don't agree with you, I like the way you put it. It is clearly all scripted.

Originally posted by PvtHudson
The problem with folks like you is that you've become MSM drones.

edit on 23-10-2012 by PvtHudson because: (no reason given)

No, the problem with folks like ME, is I am Canadian and I could care less what your MSM says. I dislike both of your candidates and if I was American I would be voting third party. Romney looked like he was having mini-seizures close to the end. And btw, 56% of the Canadians watching this debate agree with me, Obama won.

reply to post by PvtHudson


I think you are reaching for any an all excuses, and see only what YOU want to see.

Romney reminded me of Sarah Palin last night. No clue how to work with other nations to accomplish things.

The troop thing, there is a huge difference between leaving 3,000 people in Iraq (I went to Highschool with more than that) and 10,000 - 30,000 .

Those aren't my made up numbers, those are from actual quotes by both parties.

Originally posted by TheSparrowSings

Originally posted by PvtHudson
The problem with folks like you is that you've become MSM drones.

edit on 23-10-2012 by PvtHudson because: (no reason given)

No, the problem with folks like ME, is I am Canadian and I could care less what your MSM says. I dislike both of your candidates and if I was American I would be voting third party. Romney looked like he was having mini-seizures close to the end. And btw, 56% of the Canadians watching this debate agree with me, Obama won.

I like Canada, and Canadians. Your bacon frightens me though.

I can imagine Canadians are just as concerned aboot ( ) the elections as we are.

Was just looking at RCP
Though it still looks about neck and neck, I decided to check out the important stuff..aka, the swing states.

Not sure why its showing Romney doing well after seeing that though. Here is the average (including both Rasmussan conservative rag, and Gallup's "issues")

Source, RealClearPolitics

Colorado (9): Romney +0.2
Florida (29): Romney +1.8
Iowa (6): Obama +2.0
Michigan (16): Obama +5.0
Nevada (6): Obama +2.8
New Hampshire (4): Obama +1.4
Ohio (18): Obama +1.9
Pennsylvania (20): Obama +4.8
Virginia (13): Tie
Wisconsin (10): Obama +2.8

List was made at 1pm EST

Funny, as I was making this list, the national average changed (Florida Romney lost 0.1% and Virginia went from edge to Romney to a tie..sort of annoying when things update when your referencing them)

Anyhow, these are the states that only matter now. the rest of the states are pretty much solid now..
And so..notice something. At the moment, the ones that are trending Obama are solid. Romney is barely nose above water...Romney needs to pretty much win all of these states listed, Obama needs to win just a couple...

I am more curious how the media reports it being so epicly close, when if you actually look into the numbers (again, even using rasmussan neocon spin) it is looking pretty easy for Obama..
Perhaps its just to keep people tuned in..hard to show interest if its landslide obama and trending obama even more with several weeks to go.


(do check the link though for the latest info on toss up states as they seem to be changing by the minute..these numbers were accurate for that particular moment in time...and even then they shifted)

reply to post by beezzer


This Canadian is concerned that an ENTIRE debate about foreign policy did not include ONE mention of Canada. Not ONE mention of the debacle that is NAFTA. I feel if Romney wins, since he and Harper seem all too similar (same hair, same ego, same ideologies, same used car salesman smile), Canada is going to fall further into the grasp of the POTUS. With Obama (who is supposed to represent a liberal viewpoint) we might still have a chance to save ourselves.

ps - The bacon is good... but watch for E-coli. Seems our food safety laws are becoming more and more lax as of late.

(a) Four days...that is the minimum for polls to reflect real-time with rolling daily averages
(b) Rasmussen is unrelaible

IBD/TIPP has Obama +4 for the same period...ditto with other polls.

At best, we just don't know this close to the election, but from following the polls and thier measures closely for a few months I suspect we will see an Obama win.

Originally posted by TheSparrowSings

It is your preconceived notion. I hate both and I saw Obama being roughed up by Romney. I think its all scripted but I came away seeing Romney as the clear winner.

Although I don't agree with you, I like the way you put it. It is clearly all scripted.

Originally posted by PvtHudson
The problem with folks like you is that you've become MSM drones.

edit on 23-10-2012 by PvtHudson because: (no reason given)

No, the problem with folks like ME, is I am Canadian and I could care less what your MSM says. I dislike both of your candidates and if I was American I would be voting third party. Romney looked like he was having mini-seizures close to the end. And btw, 56% of the Canadians watching this debate agree with me, Obama won.

edit on 23/10/2012 by TheSparrowSings because: (no reason given)

if we had a parliamentary system, your right.....but the 3rd party candidate never wins, and whatever side he leans toward, loses, due to the dilution of the vote. by the way, the main stream canadian media is not exactly a pillar of veracity. and with a population of 34.8 million, your entire country has the population of one state, mine, california.....juuusst a little easier to monitor and keep in check.