It's just a matter of days, now...

Nice of you to show up herrw - where have I heard this type of analysis before.....television, Internet show....hmmmmm Oh well.

I think you know as well as the rest of us that the powers that be are aware and this is in fact by design. I would suggest that the timetable has been moved up due to several unforseen (but not uncalculated) events and that North America will actually fair much better (a softer landing) than the rest of the globe.

Remember - the intagibles of human nature can not be predicted.

Better calrity and logic than I could ever produce.

Thanks.

reply to post by herrw


Awesome first post!

I too just wanted to comment so it would be easier to follow this thread.

S&F for sure!

reply to post by herrw

I think that you are for the most part spot on. The Federal Reserve has been monetizing our debt with Q.E. (Quantative Easing) 1, 2 and now Q.E. infinity! The only thing that we are missing now is velocity in the monetary supply. Once the money starts to really move we will have the necessary velocity to start hyper inflation. The link below is to a site that does a pretty good job of explaining hyper inflation.

www.goldonomic.com...

reply to post by herrw


I cant help but see it this way


Hunger threats result in a tendency for Violence .
Security threats result in a tendency for Destruction.
Moral threats result in a tendency for revolution

I have written a book as well, titled "The Pursuit of Common Sense", which touches on this theme. The technological advancements of the last hundred plus years have removed people who live in first world nations from the natural arena of the struggle for survival, and placed us in this new artificial arena, where mainly we struggle with how much is too much.

Morality exists to establish human trust. If your neighbor murders your other neighbor, you don't want the murderer living next door, because they might murder you or someone you love. This is the basis for morality, law, police, jails, all that. It has nothing to do with being good so you can get into heaven. Part of the problem is that a large percentage of us have become too intelligent to buy into the whole religious scam.

If we run into a food shortage, then we will start to see society break down. I don't think a collective is strong enough to break nature community bonds that will come together, IMO, should the first world nations start to see a serious food shortage.

I have to ask, have you looked at how Cuba reacted to food shortages after the USSR fell apart. I would think that a study of this recent modern event would be critical in understanding how a modern society and communities will react to a food shortage.

There is a real planet wide crisis developing, but I don't think it will be triggered by inflation, and I think there is very little probability that this will happen in the next week or next couple of weeks, but if it does, my hats off to ya for such an amazing prediction.

The Arab world is experiencing two major problems at the same time, that will soon be coming to our shores. One, the oil in the middle east is running out, and those nations have been running off of welfare from the oil money. As exports decline, the welfare check is running dry in countries who have experience unsustainable population booms. At the same time, Global Warming is creating ever worse droughts, and there are a lot of hungry people.

As global climate change worsens, and we run out of the easy to get light sweet crude, even the first world nations are going to experience very severe crisis situations.

The problem isn't collectives, IMO, but institutions that have grown up everywhere in our modern world. These institutions allow people to hide behind the mask of the institutional entity, and commit horrible crimes, for which they are not held accountable. When these numerous crises hit, these institutions will act in the coldest and cruelest of manners. People will have to choose between loyalty to the institution, or to the communities they live in.

What we will likely see is corporations trying to establish territorial control. It will be institutions verses communities.

reply to post by herrw


Really interesting post and perspective. S&F for that. Not sure I agree with your outlook, though the premise is solid. I'm looking forward to delving further into the thread, though I will add this from a point of knowledge - currently, transportation costs for goods average about 2%. Should diesel fuel rise from the current $4.15 average in the US to $12.45 (tripling), transportation costs for goods will rise to more like 4% (assuming the cost of those goods doesn't change.) doubling the transport coats is a big deal, but moving $500,000 in goods from LA to NYC currently runs about $5000 by truck, less by train. Its not as big of a deal as you'd think.

Let it come, if it will dethrone those in power and just let them become us, and we switch to tribal, then great.

reply to post by herrw

Interesting but its not what will happen, its what has happen before in other countries, times, and scenarios. In some instances what you purpose is the worst case scenario and in others its the best case scenario but in either case its been done, many times before. Pulling societal and economic strings is nothing new, what is new however is that people have literally many more options to opt out of the same old cycle that has been going on for ages, literally right in front of them and they dont even know it or see it because there so focused on staring at the finger pointing to the moon.

Everybody is guilty of doing that, even me, so no things will change alright and changes in the big factors that all humanity lives by and thrives by such as hunger ie food, and the economies of getting food on your table such as farming or huge corporate farming practices. Security, well having a roof over your head and security and peace of mind is usually a big thing that people go bandanna over. Gee wonder why it took this long to see that those two things are like important...As for for moral threats, well anything moral is usually added in as an after effect after the two bigger issues come to a head ie hunger and security are taken care off. Morality for some does not exist, and for others is but a tool, and yet for others its the byproduct of the other factors in any society.

Usually if you want to control a people or a society all you really need to control is there food and there shelter, and everything else sort of follows suit, but to control those things you must first control there minds and in all societies its usually done with with finding that one thing that they all have in common and perceive the same, the most common thing is $$. Anyways what I am saying is, sometimes when you look at the past you forget to really see the present that is in front of you. And so if your waiting for the world to end in the next few day or months or years, well unless a meteor hits, it aint gonna happen from that economic point of view. People have been waiting for this economy and society to end, and each and every year its been the same thing and yet people are still waiting, in fact some are even addicted to the doom porn as you call it, and others it is how they operate...But come something serious, they will be waiting for a long time.

What we have now is people slowly waking up to the facts of just how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable our consumer society really is, and how we have literally breed ourself's to become dispensable cogs in the machine of our own machinations, we have become dependents on something that is literally prone to change to the slightest of external stimulus, and usually if any change happens the whole thing collapses on itself. But again like I said, everything is literally in front of people to change that, they are just so used to the old ways that they can not only not understand any new thing but they literally wont be able to see it till something happens and there old habits fall to the wayside.

reply to post by herrw

You're confusing the second level of Maslow's heirarchy, security of resources, with the first level: security of person. It's the need to establish shelter, and to protect one's offspring. If you have no food, you will have a hunger threat. If someone threatens to take your food, you have a second-level security threat. As we develop through the heirarchy we differentiate ourselves from our fellow man. In a collective, it is only those things which every man (and/or woman) has in common which contributes to the collective intellect.

No he is right perceived threats are sometimes as real or more so real then actual threats. In fact that is how most wars are and were started, and how we got in this mess by a long shot...That is by way of received threats, you know the boogie man is going to get us, now a days the boogie man just happen to be goat farmers in some cave somewhere, ie terrorists....But yes if humans were nothing but logical creatures what you say may be fact and actual all the time, but then again humans are not always the most rational of creatures now are they?

Groups of people are much more easier to understand then it is to understand a single person in that group, in fact in groups people become downright predictable. There are reasons for that and the whole group dynamic thing has a purpose and had a purpose as we literally but a few thousands of years ago needed for our survival it has become ingrained an instinct to fold back into the fold of the herd.

But in effect it is much easier to fool a group of people then it is to fool one person in part because of the group dynamic effect that humans adhere to intellectually, as a force of habit, and institutionally. And so as Nietzsche said "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule?"

Originally posted by herrw
First thread here, so be gentle.

My major field of study is in the dynamics of large and small collectives, something I've studied for many years. No, I'm not an academician. I'm an author and a poet and a playwrite and a damn hard working individual. But it would be wrong of me not to share what I've developed with others who might listen.

Part of the study of collectives is understanding how they respond to different types of threats. Collectives almost always respond in the same manner to the same stimuli, because when a dissimilar group of individuals gather together for action their common attributes determine the nature of the collective intellect. As they have little in common, this tends to be the subconcious motivations. Specific to this problem are hunger threats, safety threats, and moral threats. I have social equations for these, and would be pleased to share them with anyone who wishes (although I don't know how to draw equations in BBcode).

Hunger threats result in a tendency for revolution.
Security threats result in a tendency for violence.
Moral threats result in a tendency for destruction.

To understand where we are headed in the next many days, one must understand where we are first. We have trillions of dollars in print, but none are being spent. These are dammed up behind the banks like a leaking reservoir. We must print this money to support a citizenry which cannot support itself after economic collapse. If we did not do so, it would result in revolution. (hunger threat) Additionally, we are constantly reminded of the possibility of security threats. The government must respond (even ineffectively) or violence will erupt. Finally, we have devided western society into two moral camps--progressive liberalism and social conservatism--which can neither communicate effectively nor abide each other's presence.

So here's what you're looking at as a catastrophe, if you're the fear porn type.

First, the stock market will recover on positive news. It will jump wildly upward, and all reports will herald the end of the great recession. This is not the end. This is the beginning of the end.

Next, business spikes. This will take all of a week. Banks will loosen their hold on their reserves of cash. That cash is worthless to them unless it is used, but up until this point they've been afraid to take the risk of releasing it.

The cash drops into the economy like an atomic bomb, destroying everything around it. With so much cash in circulation, the price of everything is going to skyrocket. And the keynesians in the fed will be able to understand nothing other than a continuation of the same policies. This is the trigger.

With hyper inflation, several things must happen. a) revolutionary feelings will erupt (hunger threat) b)The military must be withdrawn from active combat (nothing to pay them with, and they're needed to enforce the peace. c) most importantly, infrastructure must fail.

That last one requires some explanation. The Western economy operates on the supposition that products from anywhere in the world may be quickly transferred to anywhere else in the world. When the price of goods skyrockets, so will the price of fuel. Without the input of cheap(ish) energy, product transportation will all but cease.

Finally, consider that western society has been in moral conflict with eastern society and middle-eastern society for centuries. Given the sudden weakness, I expect war to break out. Not in the middle east, but in Spain, Turkey, Armenia, and Serbia... areas where the tensions are high and the mixture of morally opposed collectives is strong. This starts a bloody conflict which has to sweep the world, if through nothing other than contageon. And moral wars mean killing, and that includes mommies and daddies and babies and puppies.

Finally, the warring forces collapse. Without the transport of food, the will to fight (even when driven by the supposed prestige of God) will eventually falter and fail. By that time we will have been knocked backwards at least 100 years, much as Europe was after WWII. This time there will be no superpowers to rebuild, however. The superpowers will be smoking ruins.

That's my first post. Sorry if it's a downer.

* academic
* playwright
* divided
* neither of which can

I stopped reading after that. Thanks for the creepy predictions though.

reply to post by herrw


Soon to come, major market fluctuations,headline news regarding lawsuits, the acceptance
of widespread fraudulent activity,massive market corrections, and all throughout this cloud of
misdirection there will be a continual assault on the American Standard of living.
This , combined with inflation, will be a hidden tax on our earnings.
The prices of essential goods will continue to rise, all the while, wages will remain
stagnant. This gradual implementation of failed policy will continue to wipe out
your earnings. It has been in progress for several years now and will continue to be
applied. This "Gradual Austerity" plan is meant to slowly permeate American Society.
This plan is driven by the avoidance of social disruption,rebellion,widespread panic,
and uncontrollable violence.

This subversive technique in social management is known as Demoralization.
This method relies on the concept that a significant amount of a populous
will blame their ownselves for their condition. Also calculated into the equation,
is that an ever growing percentage of the target population will devolve into acceptance
due to a lack of will. Regardless of the finer details, the fact remains that this procedure
is not only unethical, but immoral as well. There is a cost to this behavior.

Thats' all Folks! Its Wrabbet Season. Best to you and......S&F

Originally posted by Miccey

Originally posted by Lonewulph
reply to post by herrw

 

Just a matter of days?

Well done first post. Thanks for educating the people, but I don't think neither Obama or Romney, and their supporters, got the memo...


They just keep telling us, don't worry....be happy...everything's gonna be okie dokey.

At what point will the 'off world security forces' that are mentioned in the other 'Gary Mckinnon Hacker' thread be called in?

edit on 20-10-2012 by Lonewulph because: (no reason given)

Troll alot??

Ive gained some insight by this thread, and even gained some
"ok i wasnt so off". Been thinking alot about this aswell.
And SOMETHING is about, around the corner so to speak...

Gutfeelings are good indicators...

I try not to run with gut feelings, but thank you for the kind words.

My equations could very well be way off mark. As I said, they are relational rather than mathematical. However, they are based on the premise that collectives function in much the same way most of the time. Central to the equations is the series P(xT/d^2), where d=time, x=nature (hunger, moral, etc), T=severity of threat, and P= prestige, although P may be applied to any area of the equation. I really wish ATS had a function wherein I could upload a rtf file to show them. I would love the feedback.

Originally posted by herrw

Originally posted by Miccey

Originally posted by Lonewulph
reply to post by herrw

 

Just a matter of days?

Well done first post. Thanks for educating the people, but I don't think neither Obama or Romney, and their supporters, got the memo...


They just keep telling us, don't worry....be happy...everything's gonna be okie dokey.

At what point will the 'off world security forces' that are mentioned in the other 'Gary Mckinnon Hacker' thread be called in?

edit on 20-10-2012 by Lonewulph because: (no reason given)

Troll alot??

Ive gained some insight by this thread, and even gained some
"ok i wasnt so off". Been thinking alot about this aswell.
And SOMETHING is about, around the corner so to speak...

Gutfeelings are good indicators...

I try not to run with gut feelings, but thank you for the kind words.

My equations could very well be way off mark. As I said, they are relational rather than mathematical. However, they are based on the premise that collectives function in much the same way most of the time. Central to the equations is the series P(xT/d^2), where d=time, x=nature (hunger, moral, etc), T=severity of threat, and P= prestige, although P may be applied to any area of the equation. I really wish ATS had a function wherein I could upload a rtf file to show them. I would love the feedback.

Well, the 95% of the ppl might not be that well informed to
use equations..
But we DO have some serious GUTFEELINGS...
And ive learned to trust them.

reply to post by herrw

I have social equations for these, and would be pleased to share them with anyone who wishes (although I don't know how to draw equations in BBcode).

Haven't read the entire thread yet so sorry if this has been addressed but I would suggest that you write out the equations in paintbrush or photoshop, etc... save them as an image and then simply post the image. That would certainly work and should be easy enough.

I don't want to mess with this thread. Already put in a few posts earlier on, but want to add one more thing.

For people who are thinking food shortages will come to the U.S. :

*Do you realize how much food we export

*Do you realize how much food we waste every day

*Do you realize how large our portions and daily caloric consumption is compared to most other countries


Let's suppose that a dollar collapse coincides with global food insecurity due to various crops being damaged in key areas. What happens? We fend for ourselves. Government takes over industry., and a mandate is made to stop all food exports. The military secures the cities, and the local, state, and federal authority hand out food and water in rations.

We have such an abundance of food in this country that it's just ridiculous. If we truly needed to, we could create policies to flip a lot of the land that has been subsidized NOT to be used for food production into food production. Within a year whatever hard times came about would be resolved.

Just not happening here, people.


/thread

reply to post by moniesisfun


Well, the western part of the Midwest plains had a giant reservoir under it, that has dried up over the last decade, and those who remain in those areas are switching to wind farmers.

The areas of the US that produce most of our food experienced severe drought this last summer, and if global warming continues, severe droughts might become the norm.

Even then, I don't think the US will have problems feeding ourselves, except for the economic side of the formula.

The institutions that control our economy will stop at nothing to maintain their control. Due to the vast amount of money the Arabs made from oil, they have a considerable say in how things are currently being ran on our planet. They are using that influence to bring their large populations into other, more sustainable locations. This is happening as we post.

Again, look at what happened in Cuba after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

reply to post by moniesisfun

Eh, we're going to simply have to wait and see. I think you're off the mark. The national leadership is not what is on C-SPAN. It's all show for the time being. Once the dollar collapses, martial law will be declared, and policies for continuance of government will be put in place. It's all in public view for anyone who cares to check.

Our current world leadership, the ICBs, are a bunch of psychopaths. They know nothing about reality. The only thing they know is corporate politics, how to lie, cheat, and steal to get their way.

This is why, instead of us all living the good life, due to the advancements of technology, working short hours and spending more time with our families, we are all trapped in a giant rat maze, to chase the cheddar.

Even though we are all already fattened.

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by moniesisfun

 

Our current world leadership, the ICBs, are a bunch of psychopaths. They know nothing about reality. The only thing they know is corporate politics, how to lie, cheat, and steal to get their way.

That is an assumption of facts, not a statement in evidence.

This is why, instead of us all living the good life, due to the advancements of technology, working short hours and spending more time with our families, we are all trapped in a giant rat maze, to chase the cheddar.

Even though we are all already fattened.

I'm pretty sure it's far more complicated than that.

Originally posted by sio2yh2o
Nice of you to show up herrw - where have I heard this type of analysis before.....television, Internet show....hmmmmm Oh well.

I think you know as well as the rest of us that the powers that be are aware and this is in fact by design. I would suggest that the timetable has been moved up due to several unforseen (but not uncalculated) events and that North America will actually fair much better (a softer landing) than the rest of the globe.

Remember - the intagibles of human nature can not be predicted.

Better calrity and logic than I could ever produce.

Thanks.

I feel as though I am being compared to someone or something, but I don't know what that is. I do know that many doomsayers predict the end of the world on a constant basis. I'm not predicting the end of the world. I'm showing how the different variables in the current social equation have reached a tipping point. I believe that the intangibles of human nature can both be typified and predicted, to an extent. Individual free will may make micro-prediction all but impossible, but groups of individuals follow set patterns which are dependent both upon their initial formulation and their mode of communication.

Originally posted by herrw
Individual free will may make micro-prediction all but impossible, but groups of individuals follow set patterns which are dependent both upon their initial formulation and their mode of communication.

Which is exactly why the internet is a complete game changer.