posted on Oct, 20 2012 @ 12:20 PM
Originally posted by herrw
First thread here, so be gentle.
My major field of study is in the dynamics of large and small collectives, something I've studied for many years. No, I'm not an academician. I'm
an author and a poet and a playwrite and a damn hard working individual. But it would be wrong of me not to share what I've developed with others
who might listen.
Part of the study of collectives is understanding how they respond to different types of threats. Collectives almost always respond in the same
manner to the same stimuli, because when a dissimilar group of individuals gather together for action their common attributes determine the nature of
the collective intellect. As they have little in common, this tends to be the subconcious motivations. Specific to this problem are hunger threats,
safety threats, and moral threats. I have social equations for these, and would be pleased to share them with anyone who wishes (although I don't
know how to draw equations in BBcode).
Hunger threats result in a tendency for revolution.
Security threats result in a tendency for violence.
Moral threats result in a tendency for destruction.
To understand where we are headed in the next many days, one must understand where we are first. We have trillions of dollars in print, but none are
being spent. These are dammed up behind the banks like a leaking reservoir. We must print this money to support a citizenry which cannot support
itself after economic collapse. If we did not do so, it would result in revolution. (hunger threat) Additionally, we are constantly reminded of the
possibility of security threats. The government must respond (even ineffectively) or violence will erupt. Finally, we have devided western society
into two moral camps--progressive liberalism and social conservatism--which can neither communicate effectively nor abide each other's presence.
So here's what you're looking at as a catastrophe, if you're the fear porn type.
First, the stock market will recover on positive news. It will jump wildly upward, and all reports will herald the end of the great recession. This
is not the end. This is the beginning of the end.
Next, business spikes. This will take all of a week. Banks will loosen their hold on their reserves of cash. That cash is worthless to them unless
it is used, but up until this point they've been afraid to take the risk of releasing it...
That's my first post. Sorry if it's a downer.
Well it's an interesting theory. But it looks like you're long on explaining your qualifications and expertise and short on details as to how this
is going to play out. Am I right in thinking that the big bang, that will start the ultimate and rapid decline, leading to the revolution, violence
and destruction, that is the reaction of a threatened society, is the hyper inflation that results from the releasing of all the paper, digital,
money that has been created over the last years? Money that was intended to relieve the hardships of the population as a result of the most recent
financial calamity, vast sums that never made it to these hardship cases, but instead have been hoarded by the banks because of the fear of not
having it. (Probably trying to shore up their balance sheets.) And now because the economy appears to be doing better they, the banks, are about to
drop this big buck bomb, that is going to ignite inflation and be the beginning of our end. From here it is the well worn story of economic collapse,
recalcitrant ideologies. resource exhaustion. and systemic failures.
I'm sure your studies in group think and societal reaction to adverse stimulation gives you some insight into future difficulties. I'm not so sure
any equations based on these inputs can accurately predict an inflationary trigger or any consequent uncertainties. I think you need to make a
stronger connection between your understanding of human reactions to conditions and how this understanding predicts the events or time frames for the
coming of these stresses.
To my thinking your equation has made a big leap in assigning cause and effect. First I would think an equation is needed to explain the actions of
the stock market. the banks in releasing the capital, and how this release is to be accomplished. You might do better to explain how each baby step
along the way to this final disaster triggers the expected human response and how this response leads to the next step and the next, until we have the
chaos you so adequately describe
I'm sure a case can be made for the importance of these areas of study in showing how the predicted responses could lead to the events but I don't
think you have made it.
I know how that poet business goes, hard work, no reward.
Don't worry about being a downer with doom and gloom. We love that around here.