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Originally posted by Tw0Sides
You GOP peeps never mention the "Ron Paul" Factor.....
Originally posted by sonnny1
No amount of kool-aid, will get the voters to drink. Especially undecided, or Independent. MHO.
How many of those Registered Voters will Write in RP, or worse, after the Debacle at the GOP Convention, switch sides.
Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% - a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain's defeat in Ohio.
Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.
Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent:
That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.
The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels: Of the seven current RCP polls in Ohio, the average Democratic advantage in party ID is 5.5 percent. That is, if we assume 2008 advantage was D+5, as explained above, then the average poll in Ohio right now assumes a 2008-level turnout. While anything is possible on November 6, there are not many people on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 turnout advantage.
Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008: This is the last point, but a huge one. Take this quotation, from CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.” The current polls have been seriously inflated for Democrats because they’re reporting Obama with 30+ percent leads in early voting (which is then automatically counted in “likely voter” samples), which seems to be vastly overestimating the Democratic advantage among these voters. As CNN explains, Romney is making huge gains from 2008.
Originally posted by alternateuniverse
Obama's "firewall" is becoming smaller and smaller. Romney doesn't need Ohio to get to 270. Obama does. Ohio is in the bag for Romney...YES, you heard it here first.
Two volunteer poll workers at an Ohio voting station told Human Events that they observed van loads of Ohio residents born in Somalia — the state is home to the second-largest Somali population in the United States — being driven to the voting station and guided by Democratic interpreters on the voting process. No Republican interpreters were present, according to these volunteers.
A source, who wishes to remain anonymous, is a volunteer outside the Morse Road polling center. She has witnessed Somalis who cannot speak English come to the polling center. They are brought in groups, by van or bus. The Democrats hand them a slate card and say, “vote Brown all the way down.” Given that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent Democrat Senator in Ohio, one can assume that this is the reference.
The logical follow-up question is whether a non-English speaking person is an American citizen. Although Republican leadership in Ohio passed a voting reform law, it was repealed by the legislature itself after the Democrats threatened a referendum. According to the Ohio Secretary of State’s web site, someone wanting to vote early in Ohio must supply one of the following in writing on the absentee ballot form, whether voting early by mail or in person: an Ohio driver’s license number; the last four digits of the social security number; or a copy of a current and valid photo identification, military identification, or a current — within the last 12 months — utility bill, including cell phone bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the person’s name and address in addition to the voter registration acknowledgement.
At this point in an election cycle, many campaign staffers are busy fighting the press on what they call “process stories.” The candidates and their staffs want to talk about their plans and policies while reporters covering them find their audiences demand a play-by-play of the horse race.
There are normally three signs you know a campaign metrics memo is purely spin.
1. Anecdotes: “We have seen groups as big as 100 voters going to vote in Athens, Ohio.” Only 604 democrats have voted in person in the entire county and no more than 40 in a single precinct (that would be Athens 3-5, for those scoring at home).
2. Unverifiable Data: “Precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate”: This is unverifiable and misleading because there is no such thing as an “Obama precinct.” Every ten years, the entire country rebalances its voting districts based on a constitutionally mandated census. In 2010, this process redrew the lines of reportable voting areas that were used in 2008. So this year, we have entirely new precincts, thereby making it impossible to validate their claim.
3. Cherry-picking random sub-poll data: “Time poll shows the President up 60-30” among early voters. That sub-sample was asked of 145 people and was one of many of similar ilk (with a huge variation in results). Their central data argument is that 43 more people told Time’s pollster over a two-day window they supported Obama. If that is their best claim to a lead in Ohio, it is a troubling picture for the president.
Kasich, a Republican and supporter of Mitt Romney, said that the rescue of auto companies accounted for just 400 of the 112,000 new jobs that have come to Ohio since early last year.
“We did not grow Ohio’s economy just by relying on one industry, or just one sector,” Kasich said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We’ve done it by diversifying Ohio, and make it safe for people to come in here.”
Ohio’s unemployment rate is now down to 7 percent, from 8.6 percent a year ago. Kasich said that the state’s recovery had been fueled by other sectors, like information and technology, financial services and healthcare.
Among all Ohio voters, Romney now has a 12-point lead over the president in voter trust – 53% to 41% - when it comes to the economy. Last week, he had just a seven-point advantage among voters in the state when they were asked which candidate they trusted more to deal with the economy.
Romney’s also trusted more by eight points in the areas of job creation and energy policy but leads Obama by just two when it comes to housing issues.
National security has been an area where the president has typically had an advantage over Romney this year. But, the Republican challenger now has a 52% to 42% advantage on the issue.
Obama carried Ohio by a 51% to 47% margin in 2008, but just 46% of the state’s voters now approve of the job he is doing. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 29% and Strong Disapproval from 44%, giving the president a slightly worse job approval rating in Ohio than he earns nationally.
Forty-seven percent (47%) have a favorable opinion of the president and 52% have an unfavorable view. Those figures include 32% with a Very Favorable opinion and 42% who have a Very Unfavorable view of him.
Romney is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 45%, including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor and 32% with a Very Unfavorable one.