2012: Romney Has "Edge" In Ohio

In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.

University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big."

Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.

"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact," Ryun said. He added, "The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney By Paul Bedard
washingtonexaminer.com...

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The Ohio SOS's own press release
www.sos.state.oh.us...

Only 1.1 million Ohio voters have even REQUESTED (not submitted or even received) absentee ballots so far (and a miniscule 59,000 have voted in person). Taken all together this represents only 21% of the 2004/2008 vote count.

In order for PPP's numbers to be even POSSIBLE, over 90% of requested absentee ballots so far would have have to be received (highly improbable) and submitted over 3 weeks before the election (absurd).

Look at the latest data on Cuyahoga County (largest county, overwhelmingly Democrat)
boe.cuyahogacounty.us...

Total registered voters: 928,798
Total submitted ballots: 31,233

So in the largest democratic county, only 3% have submitted absentee ballots so far, which makes a LOT more sense. PPP is only off by a factor of 6 or so (in this county at least).

Obama leads 51-46 in Ohio
www.publicpolicypolling.com...

Funny early voters are saying otherwise. Obama Leads Among Early Voters: Poll

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks. The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: http://(link tracking not allowed)/RmeEen) With the Nov. 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: http://(link tracking not allowed)/SWm5YR).

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Good news!

The state of Denial must be one of the 57 states Obama was talking about.

Have distant relatives in Ohio. Public assistance replaced the paychecks when the factories closed down long ago. Hard to find people who want to be gainfully employed in parts of Ohio anymore. Drug swap meets seem to be the largest money maker. We offered help in relocating for employment and was told "can't leave my home". Hard to help with an attitude like this. No need to seek gainful employment.

reply to post by buster2010

Just a small little question. Your snippet points out that 7% have already voted. Later in the same article we find this:

The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. For the 6,704 people who were asked whether they had voted yet, the credibility interval was 1.3 points. For the 361 people who replied that they had already cast their ballots, the credibility interval was 10 points.

361 out of 6704 is a little less than 5.4%. I wonder how the rest of their math is.

reply to post by buster2010

I'm not sure we can take polls as much more than an indication of a short term trend. Although, if you want to swear by them, both Gallup and Rasmussen say the race nationally is 49% Romney, 47% Obama.

If you take polls seriously enough to be worried about them, then it looks like it's the Obama side that should be worried.

If Romney takes Ohio, the route is on.

Florida and Virginia look to be in the bag for Romney.

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Closing the game doesn't equal a blowout. It just means he will lose by less, unless I have been misunderstanding what a blowout means since my days in little league.

Obama is going to beat Romney.
It's unfortunate that we will have to have either of these idiots running our country into the ground.

Taking Ohio is the common route to victory. Romney has other "paths" to victory as well. Like I said in previous threads, Romney is focused like a laser.

Originally posted by solidguy
If Romney takes Ohio, the route is on.

Florida and Virginia look to be in the bag for Romney.

Originally posted by buster2010
Funny early voters are saying otherwise. Obama Leads Among Early Voters: Poll

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks. The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: http://(link tracking not allowed)/RmeEen) With the Nov. 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: http://(link tracking not allowed)/SWm5YR).

Yep you are right Obama already won the state before the first debate...The democrates have had a huge push for early voters, as in they go to people's houses and "help" them fill out their absentee ballots and mail them in for them.

Romney has the momentum. The ground game in Ohio is much stronger in 2012 than 2008. 3 times as many doors have already been knocked on. And an exponentially higher amount of "get out the vote" calls have already been made. Starting this week, Ohioans will see Romney commercials outnumbering Obama until election day.
reply to post by GogoVicMorrow

reply to post by Xtrozero


I dont think anyone has an edge, just yet.

If its win or lose, based on the economy and unemployment, Obama doesn't look like the sure winner some are placing him to be. No amount of kool-aid, will get the voters to drink. Especially undecided, or Independent. MHO.

Sorry to inform you Romney has about as much chance in Ohio as Joe the Plumber. Kasich is gonna be removed in two years and Rob Portman is gonna be lucky to keep his seat in three years.

Originally posted by sonnny1
No amount of kool-aid, will get the voters to drink. Especially undecided, or Independent. MHO.

You GOP peeps never mention the "Ron Paul" Factor.....

How many of those Registered Voters will Write in RP, or worse, after the Debacle at the GOP Convention, switch sides.

reply to post by Tw0Sides


I think most Independents and Undecided will go out and vote. Its the Democrat base, those hit, with this economic mess, that I think won't even try to vote. I live in Wisconsin, and saw first hand what happens when Dem's lose hope, especially after losing so much to failed policies. Walker won easily, in Wisconsin.

I just checked The Huffington Post model for Ohio. elections.huffingtonpost.com... Right now, they have Obama up by 2.4%. That's not very much. Rasmussen has Obama up by 1% in Ohio.

Tw0Sides: Sorry, Ron Paul was only in 4th place with 9.2% of the Ohio Primary Vote.

KeliOnyx: Sorry to inform you, but Ohio early voting started on October 2nd and Obama's shellacking from the first debate was on October 3rd.

Originally posted by sonnny1
reply to post by Tw0Sides

 

Walker won easily, in Wisconsin.

TWICE! I'm also in WI and I've witnessed a big shift in voter momentum. Even the unions have been losing their edge. Unions and Dems in WI are either full of rage or silent. I really haven't seen much for debate or hope for a positive outcome for them. They've been eerily silent (well, except for the rage). That is odd for WI.

reply to post by alternateuniverse


This doesn't change the fact that Romney is going to lose this election.. but even on the 10 percent chance he wins, he is exactly the same as Obama and we all still lose.

You should read up on Gary Johnson and considering voting for someone actually deserving of it.

i live in ohio and there are more obama signs all over cleveland and its suburbs that i am not sure were they get these polls from. I can also tell you that there are a lot of ron paul signs out there.