In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters
that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this
year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in
certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP
advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County,
home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is
early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early
voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and
possibly lose big."
Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls
has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the
majority were Democrats
"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact,"
Ryun said. He added, "The five
largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama
lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."
Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney By Paul Bedard
The Ohio SOS's own press release
Only 1.1 million Ohio voters have even REQUESTED (not submitted or even received) absentee ballots so far (and a miniscule 59,000 have voted in
person). Taken all together this represents only 21% of the 2004/2008 vote count.
In order for PPP's numbers to be even POSSIBLE, over 90% of requested absentee ballots so far would have have to be received (highly improbable) and
submitted over 3 weeks before the election (absurd).
Look at the latest data on Cuyahoga County (largest county, overwhelmingly Democrat)
Total registered voters: 928,798
Total submitted ballots: 31,233
So in the largest democratic county, only 3% have submitted absentee ballots so far, which makes a LOT more sense. PPP is only off by a factor of 6 or
so (in this county at least).
Obama leads 51-46 in Ohio
edit on 14-10-2012 by alternateuniverse because: (no reason given)