American Holodomor

Western news media continuously talks about the so called Holodomor in Ukraine. They say that millions of people were starved to death in 1930th on Stalin's orders.

A researcher had applied the same statistical analysis of population dynamics, which was used to estimate the number of Holodomor victims in Ukraine, to US population. According to this analysis 7 million Americans starved to death during Great depression.

rt.com...

Did millions of Americans indeed die? Or there is something wrong with the methods of the analysis?

All we hear these days, it seems, are statistics and polls trying to tell us how to think. Statistics are the Con Man's Magic Dust. Hitchcock's "McGuffin."

Here, Mark Twain says it rather nicely:

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself;
in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force:

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

- Mark Twain's Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review

reply to post by simus


"Western news media continuously talks about the so called Holodomor in Ukraine."

Um... no. This is objectively false. Western media couldn't give a crap about Ukraine and it's rarely, if ever, mentioned outside of the ag reports. Ukrainian history? Never. In fact, this is the first time I've ever seen the word "Holodomor" in print, and I'm a voracious reader. Yes, I may be ignorant, but that ignorance utterly belies your claim.

Western news media continuously talks about the so called Holodomor.

Change holodomor to holocaust and it makes more sense.

reply to post by simus

I'm afraid I'm going to need a little more than that. A Russian news service is saying that it's not so bad that Russians killed millions of Ukrainians by starvation? I'm sorry, what did you expect them to say? "Ummm, yeah, we killed as many innocent non-combatants as Hitler did. It was kind of fun, looking back on it?"

Actually the article doesn't deny the deaths, they're just claiming that they can manipulate the statistics to imply that millions died of starvation during the Great Depression in the US, so we can't say anything about their starvation deaths.

How many died of starvation in the US in the 1930's? Nobody can know, but if people were suddenly dropping by the millions, wouldn't you think the death rate would go up a lot? It didn't. Check the statistics here: www.cdc.gov...
You'll find that the death rate in 1930 was 1132 per hundred thousand. It was lower than that in every year of the 1930's except for 1936. People weren't dying by the millions. Our population in 1930 was 122 million. If 7 million died that would increase the death rate by 5737.7. It never happened.

Forgotten is the fact that holodomor was an intentional policy choice leading to the planned deaths of millions.
Every estimate I've seen for the starvation deaths in Ukraine is in the 1.2 to 12 million deaths range. I split the difference and settle for 6-7 million.

Originally posted by Stunspot
Um... no. This is objectively false. Western media couldn't give a crap about Ukraine and it's rarely, if ever, mentioned outside of the ag reports. Ukrainian history? Never. In fact, this is the first time I've ever seen the word "Holodomor" in print, and I'm a voracious reader. Yes, I may be ignorant, but that ignorance utterly belies your claim.

Perhaps you just do not read that sections which report on Ukraine?

There are plans to mark the anniversary this Saturday by lighting 33,000 candles - representing the number of people thought to have been dying every day at the height of the famine.

BBC: Ukraine demands 'genocide' marked

Some 33,000 people died every day during the 1932-33 famine, wiping out a third of Ukraine's population in a calamity known here as Holodomor _ Death by Hunger. Cases of cannibalism were widespread as desperation deepened. Those who resisted were shot or sent to Siberia.

FOXNews: Ukraine Marks 73rd Anniversary of Famine

NYTimes: A New View of a Famine That Killed Millions

Washington Post: Ukrainian Famine Memorial raises questions over payment and content

Originally posted by charles1952
reply to post by simus

 

I'm afraid I'm going to need a little more than that. A Russian news service is saying that it's not so bad that Russians killed millions of Ukrainians by starvation? I'm sorry, what did you expect them to say? "Ummm, yeah, we killed as many innocent non-combatants as Hitler did. It was kind of fun, looking back on it?"

In my opinion the article used the advanced argument technique Reductio ad Americanum.

Originally posted by charles1952
Actually the article doesn't deny the deaths, they're just claiming that they can manipulate the statistics to imply that millions died of starvation during the Great Depression in the US, so we can't say anything about their starvation deaths.

The article uses the same method which is used to estimate the number of starvation deaths in Ukraine. So if you call it a manipulation, it is a manipulation in the case of Ukraine as well.

Originally posted by charles1952
How many died of starvation in the US in the 1930's? Nobody can know, but if people were suddenly dropping by the millions, wouldn't you think the death rate would go up a lot? It didn't. Check the statistics here: www.cdc.gov...
You'll find that the death rate in 1930 was 1132 per hundred thousand. It was lower than that in every year of the 1930's except for 1936. People weren't dying by the millions. Our population in 1930 was 122 million. If 7 million died that would increase the death rate by 5737.7. It never happened.

The estimates of Holodomor death toll are not based on death rate, they are based on censuses.

In 1926 the population of Ukraine was 29,018 million. In 1939 it was 30,946 millions. At the same time, the population of Ukraine between 1900 and 1913 increased 41%. Therefore it should have increased 41% during the 13 years between 1926 and 1939 as well. Thus, if not for Holodomor, the population in 1939 would have been 40,950 millions. Therefore ten million people died in Holodomor. This is the logic behind the estimates.

One can apply the same method to the US. Since 1920 to 1930 the population increased 16%. You would excpect the same increase between 1930 and 1940. Thus it should have been 142 millions in 1940 instead of 132 millions. Ten millions starved to death.

Originally posted by charles1952
Forgotten is the fact that holodomor was an intentional policy choice leading to the planned deaths of millions.

Is it a fact or your wishfull thought?

Originally posted by charles1952
Every estimate I've seen for the starvation deaths in Ukraine is in the 1.2 to 12 million deaths range.

And above you have seen how they are obtained.

Originally posted by charles1952
I split the difference and settle for 6-7 million.

Have you not enough guts? Go fo 100 million.

reply to post by simus

Dear simus,

Thank you very much for your reply, I like the way you covered a fair amount of ground. May I take a look at just one of your points in this post? I do feel it is central to the analysis.

The estimates of Holodomor death toll are not based on death rate, they are based on censuses.

In 1926 the population of Ukraine was 29,018 million. In 1939 it was 30,946 millions. At the same time, the population of Ukraine between 1900 and 1913 increased 41%. Therefore it should have increased 41% during the 13 years between 1926 and 1939 as well. Thus, if not for Holodomor, the population in 1939 would have been 40,950 millions. Therefore ten million people died in Holodomor. This is the logic behind the estimates.

One can apply the same method to the US. Since 1920 to 1930 the population increased 16%. You would excpect the same increase between 1930 and 1940. Thus it should have been 142 millions in 1940 instead of 132 millions. Ten millions starved to death.

I'm afraid the logic behind the estimates eludes me. A population increase of 16% in one decade would be a reasonable estimate for the next decade if other factors were equal. And they most certainly were not. The First World War ended in 1919, would you be surprised that there were many children born in 1920 and 1921? The 20s (or "Roaring 20s") were years of economic well being and security. The 30s on the other hand were fraught with uncertainty and despair. It was hard to provide for families and the men were off trying to earn a living. Again, it's perfectly reasonable to expect fewer children to be born into a world like that.

And that logic seems not to recognize the consequences of death, even death by starvation. As the records show, people weren't dying for any reason during the 30s as fast as they did at the start of the decade. Unless you choose to claim that 5% of the population died without any records of their deaths, I don't see how you can ignore the facts from the mortality records.

In sum, the population grew more slowly because of fewer births, not millions of starvation deaths.

But if I'm misunderstanding you, please straighten me out.

With respect,
Charles1952

reply to post by simus

Dear simus,

Concerning the issue of whether the starvation in Ukraine was planned, here are the opening words of Obama's statement on the subject, found at www.whitehouse.gov...

Seventy six years ago, millions of innocent Ukrainians – men, women, and children – starved to death as a result of the deliberate policies of the regime of Joseph Stalin. Tomorrow, we join together, Ukrainian-Americans and all Americans, to commemorate these tragic events and to honor the many victims.

From 1932 to 1933, the Ukrainian people suffered horribly during what has become known as the Holodomor – “death by hunger” – due to the Stalin regime’s seizure of crops and farms across Ukraine. Ukraine had once been a breadbasket of Europe. Ukrainians could have fed themselves and saved millions of lives, had they been allowed to do so. As we remember this calamity, we pay respect to millions of victims who showed tremendous strength and courage. The Ukrainian people overcame the horror of the great famine and have gone on to build a free and democratic country.

With respect,
Charles1952

According to this analysis 7 million Americans starved to death during Great depression.

Don't worry, if Romney gets elected you'll get your wish.

reply to post by simus

The Dust Bowl, stock market crash and Great Depression resulted in the deaths of an estimated 7.5 million Americans. The natural and unnatural events had one major result, removing millions of Homesteaders, American Indians and freed slaves off the petroleum rich Great Plains during the largest oil boom in US history.

reply to post by Rudy2shoes

I believe the narrative for those videos was originally published in 2009, here: community.discovery.com...
It's too long to give the whole transcript to each of the parts, but it's there if you want to read it. One pargraph stuck out for me:

According to the US census statistics, America lost 10 million of its population from 1931 to 1940. A Russian researcher, Boris Borisov worked on uncovering the death toll during the American Famine and his estimates are that 5 million children died of starvation and 2.5 million adults. This is equal to all the Jews that died during the WWII Holocaust, so an event equal in magnitude.

As I have tried to point out in previous posts, that was not the case and Borisov used faulty assumptions to reach those impossible figures.

In 1930 the population of the US was 123,202,624.
In 1940 the population of the US was 132,164,569

In short we GAINED 9 million people in that decade.

reply to post by charles1952


So how many attended the funerals and never left?
Census counts numbers which is growth.
Show us the numbers that died.
I will believe a death census,
when they make that public.
We are a society based on growth, and only record, those numbers.
Death numbers are only used to create fear, and laws, and control our behavior.

reply to post by Rudy2shoes

Dear Rudy2shoes,.

Show us the numbers that died.
I will believe a death census,
when they make that public.
We are a society based on growth, and only record, those numbers.

I hope you don't mind if I quote myself from earlier on this page.

How many died of starvation in the US in the 1930's? Nobody can know, but if people were suddenly dropping by the millions, wouldn't you think the death rate would go up a lot? It didn't. Check the statistics here: www.cdc.gov...
You'll find that the death rate in 1930 was 1132 per hundred thousand. It was lower than that in every year of the 1930's except for 1936. People weren't dying by the millions. Our population in 1930 was 122 million. If 7 million died that would increase the death rate by 5737.7. It never happened.

Happy to help.

Originally posted by charles1952
I'm afraid the logic behind the estimates eludes me. A population increase of 16% in one decade would be a reasonable estimate for the next decade if other factors were equal. And they most certainly were not. The First World War ended in 1919, would you be surprised that there were many children born in 1920 and 1921? The 20s (or "Roaring 20s") were years of economic well being and security. The 30s on the other hand were fraught with uncertainty and despair. It was hard to provide for families and the men were off trying to earn a living. Again, it's perfectly reasonable to expect fewer children to be born into a world like that.

And that logic seems not to recognize the consequences of death, even death by starvation. As the records show, people weren't dying for any reason during the 30s as fast as they did at the start of the decade. Unless you choose to claim that 5% of the population died without any records of their deaths, I don't see how you can ignore the facts from the mortality records.

In sum, the population grew more slowly because of fewer births, not millions of starvation deaths.

The estimate is based on the projection of the rate of natural population growth from one period into another. It is perfectly logical and rational. As such it can be debated. After studying it you say that it is wrong. But can it be wrong for the USA and right for Ukraine? That would indeed defy any logic. Thus you should discard the Holodomor death estimates that you mentioned.

reply to post by charles1952


I'm sorry but here your are incorrect

Russians killed millions of Ukrainians by starvation?

Not Russians but Soviets. A big difference and worth finding out why

reply to post by tintin2012

Dear tintin2012,

I WAS WRONG. I'M SORRY. You're absolutely correct, Russia is only one part of the Soviet Empire. (Which I think Putin is trying to rebuild) Thank you for catching my error, it was sloppy on my part.

With respect,
Charles1952

Originally posted by charles1952

In 1930 the population of the US was 123,202,624.
In 1940 the population of the US was 132,164,569

In short we GAINED 9 million people in that decade.

And Ukraine gained 2 millions. In 1926 its population was 29,018 million. In 1939 it was 30,946 millions.

reply to post by simus

May I quote you?

Show us the numbers that died.
I will believe a death census,
when they make that public.

Is all you have two population totals 13 years apart? I've given you birth, population and death numbers for every year. Have you a little better information?

reply to post by charles1952

What I was driving at as an example is the case of Stalin. He was not Russian. He was a Georgian and the scum bags that worked for him doing the most hideous jobs were not in the majority Russians. But this is a deeper rabbit hole of a discussion.

Another instance of word play is this one "Who started WW II? Nazis. NO, it was the Germans." How about this one "Henry Paulson bailed out ....". "bailed out" my nose, he robbed the American People !!! There is a difference which word is used if one understands the reasons for choosing one over the other. "Understand" is the operating word here.
Nazi or Germans
Boy Scouts

Regards