reply to post by Insurrection
I'm not seeing an Israeli or US strike - I just don't see it. Unless Egypt and Syria become suddenly stable I think any strike would be just the
excuse/motivator for a massive mess of bodies at the Israeli border
That would be the most intelligent assessment if Iran's nuclear program didn't represent an existential threat to it's existence and a genocide on par
with the Holocaust.
Your theory is predicated upon the assumption that Iran's threat is not an existential threat. If it were something that Israel felt it could hold off
for years through simple diplomacy then I think Israel would do that. But Israel cannot do that, because the threat represented in Iran is too
intimately connected with Iran's Shia Islamist twelvist theology, and so as long Iran remains in the hands of the Ayatollahs, Israel will always face
a very real threat to its existence.
Any honest appraisal of Shia Islam, of the writings of Ayatollah Khomeini, and of the history of Iran since 1979, should unequivocally clarify the
thoroughly messianic rhetoric of the Iranian revolution, from Khomeini, who may have suggested that he himself was the Imam Mahdi (he was posed the
question by a reporter, in which he responded without responding, indicating a 'mystery' as to a mystical-political possibility), to Ahmadinejad, and
the messianic fervor his government has built about the imminent return of the Mahdi, that if a big war does happen, it indicates that the Mahdi will
come, and other such pleasantries.
In short, Iran is too extreme in its religious fanaticism to be trusted. It's dangerous.
So I'm speculating and trying to gather thoughts on what lines of action people think will actually play out and by whom.
Israel WILL attack Iran's nuclear facilities. It is going to happen. The odds are like 199/200. Everyday this issue is brought up in their media, and
even today Lieberman met the Breazilian president to cajole him into supporting an attack on Iran.
My own timetable see's an attack from now, although with less probability, and some time after the US elections in later November. If not November,
the odds increase as time passes by, so December, January, February. I would be amazed if nothing happened by March.
Yes, it's a highly pessimistic view of what's going on. My main concern, and the concern of the Israelis is, the real threat of a nuclear attack on
Israel if Iran is allowed to become a nuclear power.
Hezbollah is intimately tied into the ICRG. If Iran has a bomb, theres not only the threat of a missile strike from Iran on Israel, but there's a very
real probability that Iran would transfer a nuke into Hezbollah controlled southern Lebanon, and either attack Israel from there, or smuggle it
somehow into Israel's main population center at the Tel-Aviv/Jaffa metropolitan area, killing 3.3 million Jews, and take out Israel's administrative,
business and military headquarters. It would destroy Israel. There would be nothing left.
The incentive is there. They could destroy Israel in one shot, while leaving the holy places of concern, such as Jerusalem, out of the proximity of
edit on 14-10-2012 by dontreally because: (no reason given)