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Any Online Poker Players on ATS? [My Poker Story And Some 'Conspiracy Theory'Too!]

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posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 08:33 PM
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So ATS, any of you guys or girls online poker players? Or maybe you are a former player like myself?

To me, the argument over online poker being 'rigged' is very much a 'conspiracy theory.' One cannot 100% prove that it is a corrupt or rigged game, yet deep down somewhere in your sub conscious, you know something isn't right. This ability, that I feel 'conspiracy theorists' have, which to me is just being able to think critically and independently, gives us an opportunity to look at something like online poker and understand it for the scam that it is.

I started playing poker in early 2008. At first, I was a terrible player. I was playing at Full Tilt Poker and despite not playing very well, somehow managed to end up profiting as I earned a $500 sign up bonus and had a 'rakeback' account.

As time went on I started to study the game and it seemed that if you picked your tables and played your edge over a weaker player, you could make money.

I moved on to the Cake Poker network in mid 2008, deposited $400 and played for a $400 bonus. I had a 33% rakeback deal. The games were incredibly soft. Within 2 months I had made $3,000 plus the $400 bonus and about $500 in rakeback playing micro stakes. At this point I was thinking this is a good way to make some side income! However, as would prove to be a very blatant pattern, the results did not last. For the next month or so I just stopped winning. Didn't matter how much I table selected, the cards were 'against me'.

That led to joining poker forums and learning about 'variance'. Variance is basically the ups and downs of poker- sometimes luck is in your favour, other times the cards don't fall right. For a time I accepted this. Naturally, some days you will 'run good', other days weaker players will get the cards they need.

The general answer to 'variance' is to continue making correct decisions and in the long run, you will make money as the variance evens out over the long haul. This works in principle IF the game is legit and fairly dealt.

After a while of this and losing back most of that profit, I quite for a while.

About 6 months later I got a new computer and started playing again and created a database to record my results. I'll post the result from all hands played, because to me, it offers all the evidence one really needs to see how the 'rig' works and how these online poker sites make money-



If you note, I made money so isn't a case of me being a weak player claiming the game was against me. With rakeback, playing just NL10 and NL20, I made over $1,000. It worked out something like $3 an hour
but as a little side income and hobby, it was challenge I enjoyed as poker requires you to use strategy- it exercises the mind.

However, if you note from the graph, as I was new to this network (Ongame), my best reults came at the beginning. From my outright play, the first 80,000 hands or so had a very solid win rate. What happens without fail, is that when you are new to an online poker site, the software allows you to run better than expected. You get the cards you need and you win money if you can play well.

After this initial period, which I discovered lasted about 60,000 to 80,000 hands, the software then adapts so your account essentially runs on an up and down rollercoaster of 'variance' where you just break even. As seen from the graph, I actually lost money from my play for the next 200,000 hands. It was only through rakeback that I squeezed a profit. Look at the graph- up and down like a theme park ride, manipulated results by the software. It lets you win a bit to keep you interested, but after that initial winning streak, the results are aimed to see you slowly lose it all back.

This is the scam they employ. New players will be given the opportunity to win some money. This makes the player think they have a chance of making it. After so many hands, the software will evaluate your hands played and win rate and then adjust how your account 'runs'.

Here's another graph with a similar result-



Through rakeback, I managed to still be in profit by about $100 before calling it quits. The same thing happened, new network, win at first, then the cards just change.

When it comes to the actual proof, that is where many people will say will say my 'theory' falls apart. I don't know the specifics, but I know the software designers could easily track how much one wins and create a program that can balance how much somebody is winning or losing. They could even have what would be 'house bots', automated players that play for the house.

Much like any 'conspiracy theory' involving money, the motive to rig an online poker game is enormous- people stand to gain a lot of money from rigging the game.

On reasesrching the topic, I came across this article, which was the view of the owners of the Ongame network. I've highlighted variance points, but the motive for rigging the deal is clear based simply on how the poker economy works-



It is clear that their policy is losing players are more valuable to a poker site. A poker site profits from something called the 'rake'. Players will put money into a pot and at the end of the hand the site will take 5% of the total. This rake is how they profit.

If you have winning players, in the long term, the losing players will lose. Eventually, the winning players will wipe out 'the fish' as the weak players are referred in the poker world, thus no more rake for the site.

Naturally, if the game can be manipulated so that if the software identifies a strong player who has made money, then the operators can 'even up' the game, hence the losing player's money will last longer. The more back and forth the money goes, the more the site will rake and therefore profit. It's 'business', ie, corrupt and greedy.

The article linked agrees with this notion. Once we also bare in mind that online poker is not regulated, but in fact operated from tax havens such as the Isle of Man, what is to stop a business trying to maximise their profits? The answer is nothing.

Some argue that if people found out, people would stop playing. Nonsense. Not too long ago, one of the poker sites was found to have cheated players out of millions. A professional poker player had somehow gained access to the software, thereby gaining the ability to be a 'super user'. He was able to play seeing everyone's cards, making a lot of money in the process. When the scandal broke, the site continued to be one of the most popular destinations for poker players.

In 2011, two of the biggest sites were shut down for money laundering. Since 2006, the USA had made it illegal to transfer money to online gambling sites. The sites stayed in business with American players by bribing banks to accept money transfers and label them as sports purchases etc. They knowingly broke the law to keep the profits flowing. Would these criminals think twice about rigging a game and adding millions to their profits? Of course not.

- Unregulated games operated from tax havens: check

- Motive to 'rig' it: check

- Proven to have broken the law and laundered money to stay in business: check

Those 3 things combined with my graphs and experiences tell me all I need to know that my 'conspiracy theory'
is most likely 'conspiracy fact'.

Thanks for listening




posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 08:43 PM
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It seems like what your saying is that if I join online poker sites and play for 60 000 hands, then move on to another provider and do the same, etc. Til I run out of providers, then do it again under a different bank card, I could make a reasonable profit... thanks for the heads up
PS , Im pretty damn good at poker, I understand table position and am pretty good on percentage chance of making hands, ie, Im a good folder but a very risky player

.
edit on 11-10-2012 by Lagrimas because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 08:48 PM
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Originally posted by Lagrimas

It seems like what your saying is that if I join online poker sites and play for 60 000 hands, then move on to another provider and do the same, etc. Til I run out of providers, then do it again under a different bank card, I could make a reasonable profit... thanks for the heads up
PS , Im pretty damn good at poker, I understand table position and am pretty good on percentage chance of making hands, ie, Im a good folder but a very risky player

.
edit on 11-10-2012 by Lagrimas because: (no reason given)


That's exactly what you can do


Has to be a new network, not a skin (networks will host many different poker sites and once you've cleared a bonus on a network, the initial 'good luck' no longer applies
)



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 08:56 PM
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reply to post by Wonderer2012
 


Well dya know what Ive wanted to go live playing poker for a while now!

I already went live on forex and it made me feel quite silly in many ways, cos Im 30 and I started Forex about 2 years ago, but i was winning poker games on student PKR tournaments back in 2000!
Since then Ive just never had the time or necessity to play poker and generally Ive never been big on gambling,
As a matter of fact , Im addicted to saving money! But I also really understand the economy and can see that the money needs hedging, cos saving = looser in the end.

Ok yes Im still going to have to find something lucrative to do with my savings, and I will!

In the mean time though, Ive thought about it a lot and I think you just made my mind up


thanks.
Im going to play poker for 60 000 hands

edit on 11-10-2012 by Lagrimas because: (no reason given)

edit on 11-10-2012 by Lagrimas because: spelling n grammar plus type o's



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:06 PM
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Originally posted by Lagrimas
reply to post by Wonderer2012
 


Well dya know what Ive wanted to go live playing poker for a while now!

I already went live on forex and it made me feel quite silly in many ways, cos Im 30 and I started Forex about 2 years ago, but i was winning poker games on student PKR tournaments back in 2000!
Since then Ive just never had the time or necessity to play poker and generally Ive never been big on gambling,
As a matter of fact , Im addicted to saving money! But I also really understand the economy and can see that the money needs hedging cos saving s= looser in the end.

Ok yes Im still going to have to find something lucrative to do with my savings, and I will!

In the mean time though, t Ive thought about it a lot and I think you just made my mind up


thanks.
Im going to play poker for 60 000 hand


Oh dear, I wouldn't like to think I've encouraged you- that was the opposite intention of the thread


The profits made will be tiny to the time invested. The sites are designed to convince you that you can win big and be the next poker pro.

By all means, if you do go for it, make sure 100% you CAN play well, that is key, plus you need to be able to table select and find players weaker than you.

Once you have cleared a bonus or the site changes and you have a few bad sessions, cash out and uninstall the software from your computer.

I would only recommend it if you are-

1- A solid player and 100% sure you are- ie, good at table selection, value betting and not tilting.

2- Have the discipline to quit a site once the initial run good or bonus is over.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:08 PM
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i didn't have to go thru mulitple graphs and calculations to figure out its most likely rigged.

i used common sense and some not so subtle conflicts of interests.

the first clue was when i was playing online, i hit a straight flush and lost to a royal flush in less than ten hands not to mention the countless other absurd combinations.

i mean, i've played thousands of hands of live poker and never seen that happen, but online nothing surprises me.

second, fulltilt was owned by a dozen poker stars. and they'd play online too. you'd see phil ivey "online" and click on his room to observe and see his avatar sitting there with $100,000.

and you can bet it's house money. you can ask him a question, but he'll never answer. how do we know it's phil ivey and not some bot. and even it was him, how do you know he or some other employee can't see your hole cards, as he is an owner of the company.

fishy.

the history of poker: poker cheats are as old as poker. in the old west they'd settle accounts with colts. so it was harder to cheat.

poker, no matter how legitimate they want it to seem, has an organized criminal element who have no problem rigging computer software. in fact they laugh at the penalties and the ease at which they are taking peoples money.

and third, like you say, no regulations or oversight. some of these online sites are nothing more than a rundown building housing a server on a indian reservation and a bank account.

and one other note, there are no cards, they aren't real. they're code in a computer program that can easily be manipulated if you had access. you don't even have to know how to open a pack of cards, much less manipulate a deck to give you 3 aces. and do it in front of 7 other pairs of eyes that'll give you a beating or worse if they caught you.

way less risk.

real poker is played face to face.
edit on 11-10-2012 by randomname because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:15 PM
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Great thread, well presented. I've always known and believed that this was the case. I've played off and on for a few years now and I've never deposited more than ten bucks on a particular site, because I know how it works. The thing I've noticed personally is I can almost now see the pattern's they use within each game. I know how they pace it. I can see when they want more action to speed up the game by dealing multiple winning hands, such as one player after the flop has three of a kind, another player will have two pairs, then another player might have a made flush or straight, all in the same hand, so everyone thinks they have the winning hand, commit and get burned. I always know when I'm being baited with a particular hand. I play live poker and have never ever seen this happen. I have seen AA KK dealt on the same hand before but only once, I see it on poker sites so much the odds are astronomical that it could happen so much.
These sites are there to make money pure and simple, just like casino's, they will, if given enough time bleed a man dry.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:18 PM
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Originally posted by randomname
i didn't have to go thru mulitple graphs and calculations to figure out its most likely rigged.

i used common sense and some not so subtle conflicts of interests.

the first clue was when i was playing online, i hit a straight flush and lost to a royal flush in less than ten hands not to mention the countless other absurd combinations.

i mean, i've played thousands of hands of live poker and never seen that happen, but online nothing surprises me.

second, fulltilt was owned by a dozen poker stars. and they'd play online too. you'd see phil ivey "online" and click on his room to observe and see his avatar sitting there with $100,000.

and you can bet it's house money. you can ask him a question, but he'll never answer. how do we know it's phil ivey and not some bot. and even it was him, how do you know he or some other employee can't see your hole cards, as he is an owner of the company.

fishy.

the history of poker: poker cheats are as old as poker. in the old west they'd settle accounts with colts. so it was harder to cheat.

poker, no matter how legitimate they want it to seem, has an organized criminal element who have no problem rigging computer software. in fact they laugh at the penalties and the ease at which they are taking peoples money.

and third, like you say, no regulations or oversight. some of these online sites are nothing more than a rundown building housing a server on a indian reservation and a bank account.

and one other note, there are no cards, they aren't real. they're code in a computer program that can easily be manipulated if you had access. you don't even have to know how to open a pack of cards, much less manipulate a deck to give you 3 aces. and do it in front of 7 other pairs of eyes that'll give you a beating or worse if they caught you.

way less risk.

real poker is played face to face.
edit on 11-10-2012 by randomname because: (no reason given)


Great points, if anything this thread can serve as a warning to others.

From the operator's perspective, the beauty of the scam is that anything is possible in poker. So when you mention the straight flush losing to a royal flush, technically, that CAN happen in a real game. In the short term, anything can happen.

The argument of 'variance' is how they manage to stay in business, because people will buy it, much like I did.

Thankfully I noticed the trends and made some money off bonuses and taking advantage of the better run of cards when new to a site, but the time invested is not worth it at all.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:20 PM
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One more variable you should consider is the other
Players learning your style of play over time and
making adjustments to theirs. I'm a player too...
just putting that out there.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:24 PM
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reply to post by randomname
 


I do agree, but...

If the point of the software is to give novices luck, then, there is a gift to play for., It stands to reason,

enjoy being ahead and then quit. Delete account. Find another provider.

It is encouraging in that way. Sorry if you didnt mean for that outcome OP, but its just logic, rigged to win at first = opportunity.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:28 PM
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Originally posted by UpLateWakingUp
One more variable you should consider is the other
Players learning your style of play over time and
making adjustments to theirs. I'm a player too...
just putting that out there.


That is a very reasonable point, but if you are table selecting religiously, sitting with position on very weak players (who only consider their own play, ie play any hand and never fold
), nothing can explain a 200,000 break even/small losing run.

Also, would it not even out as you learnt your opponent's style as well?

I take your point though, it's a very valid one, but for me, with over a million hands of experience, online poker is a scam.

It's unregulated, run from tax havens, these people are involved in criminal activity, they would not think twice of manipulating the software's code to make more money. It's the world we live in!
edit on 11-10-2012 by Wonderer2012 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:30 PM
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Originally posted by Lagrimas
reply to post by randomname
 


I do agree, but...

If the point of the software is to give novices luck, then, there is a gift to play for., It stands to reason,

enjoy being ahead and then quit. Delete account. Find another provider.

It is encouraging in that way. Sorry if you didnt mean for that outcome OP, but its just logic, rigged to win at first = opportunity.


I agree, I took advantage of it for some time. There's a lot of bonuses out there if you do a google search


But, you have got to walk once the results stop coming and the bonus is cleared.



posted on Oct, 11 2012 @ 09:39 PM
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reply to post by Wonderer2012
 


Poker is a skill game... but WAY more a skill game in a live game at the table. However, online it is still a skill game.



posted on Oct, 12 2012 @ 12:19 AM
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Ive had this discussion many times with people.

I just dont think its worth a poker sites energy to rig the cards, having a decent site with alot of traffic is basically a license to print money just on rake, why would you risk losing those players?



posted on Oct, 12 2012 @ 05:49 AM
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Originally posted by IkNOwSTuff
Ive had this discussion many times with people.

I just dont think its worth a poker sites energy to rig the cards, having a decent site with alot of traffic is basically a license to print money just on rake, why would you risk losing those players?




Greed, pure and simply greed. They have nothing to lose from rigging it and it improves the poker economy by manipulating the deal.

The article even says losing players are valued a lot more. With multitabling ability, the site needs to rig the deal because the better players would win too much and the weak players would stop playing. It's business.



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