posted on Oct, 13 2012 @ 02:08 AM
I don't know.
I think a strike at this time would have detrimental political implications for the administration, especially after Biden's debate insistence that
"they haven't got a weapon" and that everyone needs to "calm down," as well as a campaign platform at least partially built upon getting us out
of two protracted wars. I don't think much public sentiment in support of military action against Iran exists at the moment, certainly among their
own party base, but I could be wrong of course.
Iran has enriched uranium to around 20%, whereas my understanding (please educate me if I am wrong as I am a layperson) is that you need somewhere
around 90% for it to be considered weaponized fissile material. So they would have a difficult time selling the world and the general U.S. public on a
military strike against facilities that haven't yet been shown to have produced fissile material for even one bomb. They have - according to the IAEA
- produced a detonator which could, in theory, be used in such a device. So do we attack the location or manufacturer of the detonator and nothing
else, or attack everything remotely related, as well as their air defenses of course, and then try to spin it?
That is not to say that we will not ever reach a point where it becomes easier to sell the public on support or strikes. Especially if the level of
enrichment goes much higher, or there is some sign of an actual weapon. That is also not to say that Israel might not simply act unilaterally. But
their capacity to do so - the distances involved without refueling, the use of foreign air space, etc. - are in question as far as I know. And the all
but guaranteed Iranian reprisals - both conventional and asymmetric (particularly the latter i.e. terror) would also have enormous political
implications, all while we're mere weeks from an election.
It just seems a bit farfetched to me... at least at this particular point in time. Perhaps after the election, and if more evidence of an imminent
threat (real or manufactured) surfaces.
Just my two cents. Peace.