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Originally posted by queenannie38
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.
Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
Very interesting. Not a poll but just one man's system that has not yet failed but has so far a 100% accuracy rate!
Here are the 13 keys...for descriptions of each, please see the source link:
- Party mandate
- Third Party
- Short term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Foreign/military failure
- Foreign/military success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
The ones in bold are the ones that Lichtman gives Obama a win on...the others are either undecided or a loss.edit on 10/10/2012 by queenannie38 because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by macman
reply to post by karen61057
I don't have an hour free to type all the issue and scandals that are circling around his highness.
Originally posted by beezzer
Originally posted by karen61057
reply to post by beezzer
Beezy old friend. that sounds more like a wish than a conviction.
Edited to add, all hail the bunny. I still remember my friend.edit on 10-10-2012 by karen61057 because: (no reason given)
In other threads I was quite exhaustive in my reasoning for Romney winning.
Bottom line, the polls are skewed, biased and people aren't telling the truth. There is almost a desparation in the re-election of Obama.
I see the same look on Obama-supporters faces that I see on people who buy lottery tickets.