Washington Whispers Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

Source

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Very interesting. Not a poll but just one man's system that has not yet failed but has so far a 100% accuracy rate!

Here are the 13 keys...for descriptions of each, please see the source link:

1. Party mandate
   
2. Contest
   
3. Incumbency
   
4. Third Party
   
5. Short term economy
   
6. Long-term economy
   
7. Policy change
   
8. Social unrest
   
9. Scandal
   
10. Foreign/military failure
    
11. Foreign/military success
    
12. Incumbent charisma
    
13. Challenger charisma

The ones in bold are the ones that Lichtman gives Obama a win on...the others are either undecided or a loss.

reply to post by queenannie38


Guess he's not paying attention to the hearings on Capital Hill today investigating the debacle of the attack on our Embassy in Libya one month ago that killed Ambassador Stevens and 3 other Brave Americans....

I call BS on this prediction....

Des

Originally posted by queenannie38
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

As long as any mention of the NDAA, SOPA, or Obama's drone-killing remain thoughtcrimes, the mainstream media won't touch them with a 10 foot pole. As long as people continue to think that the government is their friend, they will continue to think that Obama is a saint.

reply to post by Destinyone


What about these guys and the computer model they created?
dailycaller.com...
www.theblaze.com...

Or this guy?
www.foxnews.com...


Ah, it is a crap shoot. But, with all of the bad things going on for 0bama, it does not look good for him.

reply to post by queenannie38


Obama is losing ground...quickly. The economy has not really improved, just look at the BLS report om unemployment. The U3 has shown a rosy picture, but the U6 remains unchanged? Really?

Kick them all to the curb I say. But...let them run again, if they think that they are actually doing something for their constituents.

reply to post by queenannie38


Ummmmmm, . . . . no.

Not buying it. Romney's got it.

Sorry.

reply to post by queenannie38


Everybody gets it wrong once in a while...even this guy.

And if he is proven wrong, he already has a strategy to account for that.

Just so he can stay in his business producing...pretty much nothing but opinion. And getting paid for it.

What a great gig!

So... Obama had it in the bag and was a for sure winner after the Conventions. Now, Romney has it in the bag and is the for sure winner after the debate...

Right.

I'll wait until election night. It's obvious no one has any idea what they're talking about.

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by queenannie38

 

just look at the BLS report om unemployment.

Are you sure that isn't the BSL report? You know, Bull Sh#t Lying report?

reply to post by macman


Wait, what are all those bad things going for Obama right now?
I believe that he will win.

reply to post by beezzer


Beezy old friend. that sounds more like a wish than a conviction.

Edited to add, all hail the bunny. I still remember my friend.

Scandal free?!? Maybe if you only watch MSNBC and keep your head in the sand the rest of the time.

reply to post by Destinyone


Well, that's all true...and this article was written on August 30 of this year so it isn't exactly *fresh*. I ran across it a few weeks ago and have been meaning to post it but didn't get the time to do it until today.

It's not really his predictive outcome that I'm trying to push (or anything as far as push), but more the idea he has about these 13 points. Providing that all applicable details are included, it does seem to be pretty insightful as far as the things that influence voters both subtly and blatantly...in our present time, that is.

If time allowed, I would like to take his 13 points and maybe see how they applied to a selected handful of elections prior to those that he's applied this scale to in the most recent races. Especially the more surprising ones...I think it would be interesting and also either support or undermine his premise...and/or show how the mind and concerns of the American voter/politician has changed over the course of the last 224 years.

reply to post by jjkenobi


What is the scandal then?

reply to post by karen61057


Ah....Never mind.
I don't have an hour free to type all the issue and scandals that are circling around his highness.

reply to post by TDawgRex


Also true...but so far he has got it right for seven elections in a row. Only time will tell, of course, but that is quite the feat, really....and statistically improbable, supposedly.

He must be on to something...maybe he has a crystal ball.

And he might very well have changed on one or more of these points since the last of August, too...events continue to develop every day.

Here is another article that isn't so rosy-viewed about Lichtman's predictive talents.

Just to give some balance to the discussion.

Mainly the author of this second article has an excellent point about these points being SUBJECTIVE in nature...once again back to the opinion of the voter!

Mr. Lichtman is a 'progressive,' too, btw.

reply to post by karen61057


They're still working on that one!

Originally posted by karen61057
reply to post by beezzer

 

Beezy old friend. that sounds more like a wish than a conviction.

Edited to add, all hail the bunny. I still remember my friend.

edit on 10-10-2012 by karen61057 because: (no reason given)

In other threads I was quite exhaustive in my reasoning for Romney winning.

Bottom line, the polls are skewed, biased and people aren't telling the truth. There is almost a desparation in the re-election of Obama.

I see the same look on Obama-supporters faces that I see on people who buy lottery tickets.


Thanks ma'am.

Originally posted by queenannie38
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them... the scandal-free nature of his administration.

Allow me to put this succinctly.

LOL