Weak El Nino Predicted for Winter 2012 / 2013

reply to post by BlueAjah


Yes, it's all about preparing ahead of time, so you're not fighting in the store with a bunch of other people who failed to prepare and then panic when the storm is bearing down on them.

A generator is always a really good idea. I would go with a diesel generator, as diesel will run much longer on a gallon than a regular gasoline generator.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Oh trust me, I make sure to remember what he says about things like the weather. He might not be on spot with everything, but his weather predictions have yet to fail.

I also have a lot of family in West Texas. Most of them work for an irrigation company. I wish we were on speaking terms, because it'd be interesting to see what they have to say also.

We are about three weeks ahead here in Southeastern Michigan weather wise. The tree haves turned much faster and begun dropping leaves. This time last year I was bow hunting in 65* weather and this year I have been freezing my butt off. The wildlife seems ahead as well. The whitetails have begun to rut early and the squirrels and chipmuncks are working like crazy to get their food stored up for the winter. We need a heavy winter here. Lakes and rivers are still low from the summer drought.

I have lived in the country here all my life minus my stint in the military so I don't fear wicked winter weather. Most people around here, at least us country folk stay stocked up all the time. We look forward to bing snowed in and not having to deal with the world. I love it when it snows hard for two or three days straight. I say bring it on. Thanks for the informative thread.

reply to post by usmc0311


Thanks for your observations on weather and wildlife. Nature gives us many clues as to what is coming, and animals can sense the change much earlier than people can. I saw the desert tarantulas on the move, weeks ago, before the rains started up. They mate in creek beds, and when they sense rain coming, sometimes days in advance, they move to higher ground. They typically mate in October, so to see them moving in mid September was odd.

You're right, most of us country folk are stocked up, if for no other reason than the fact that stores are not convenient. And I love to get snowed in as well. As long as I'm not stuck out on the roads, I like to get warm and cozy inside, and watch the snow fall.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


This is bad news for people living in rural and bushland regions of Australia, as specially in Victoria, where the re-growth over the last few very wet summers/winters has gotten pretty thick. Now it may dry out to fuel some pretty big fires.

Bad news for most people and as specially bad here in Victoria which will cop a lot of it. With Ted baillieu firing much of the states frontline personnel and cutting the number of people hired for summer crews, things could get very ugly.

I'm thinking this could be the year for another black Saturday..

the earth is shifting.. soon it will alter positioning and El ninos will be your lasst thought.

~ Love is an art

I'm in northeast Texas, with family in southern Missouri and in west Texas. Out here, the squirrels have been packing stuff in for well over a month now and, by that statement, I mean they are constantly on the move with something in their mouths going up to their nests - non-stop all day. Up in northern Arkansas/southern Missouri, the land terrapins do a movement thing like the tarantulas out in west Texas, but family reported that this year the turtles did it the first week of September rather than the usual mid-October.

In my neck of the woods, we typically don't see the trees and vines turning until late October, but the sassafras trees started turning about 3 weeks ago. We just had 2 nights in the 40s earlier this week and I cannot remember the last time that happened this early. The hummingbirds are already gone, too; again, about a month earlier than usual from my years of observation. Last, but big in my book, my dogs are coating out for winter much earlier and much thicker than usual.

We always watch the signs of nature so I would say my concern about this year is that if it is *not* a harder winter than those recently experienced (given all the natural indications reported in this thread that indicate it will be), then there could be a chance that we might be in for some kind of unexpected change or shift.

reply to post by Ironclad


I saw that Australia will get the flip side of the coin, which is drought, and thought, that can't be good.....First y'all are dealing with flooding (if memory serves me correctly), and now drought, which means the fire danger becomes high due to the overgrowth of plant life that dries out.

Since I live in a high fire danger area (we are constantly on the alert for prairie fires, and continually mowing down grass within 30 feet of our house), I can relate to the fire worries.

My thread mainly deals with North America, but thanks for bringing the southern hemisphere into the equation. When we get the rain, somebody else loses out. We're all on this big blue marble together.

reply to post by LoveisanArt


When the earth shifts, if it shifts, all our thinking will shift with it. Until that time, we have to assume that things will be as they have been, and prepare accordingly.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Personally, I love snow and hope we get a # ton of it this winter.

Europe is also preparing for a harsh winter, here in the UK our long term forecast is saying that it will be worse than 2010/2011, when Europe froze for a few months.

Will be very interesting to see how things pan out.

I live in Northeast Ohio along the "World's worst lake effect corridor" from East of Cleveland into Buffalo, NY. Tracking weather is a hobby of sorts and I am regular reader of the Farmer's Almanac - BOTH of them! I'm also a firm believer in tracking nature to determine long range forecasts. To that end I introduce my friend, the Wooly Bear Caterpillar.

Tradition states that the narrower their orange stripe, the more severe the winter. In fall of 2011 I was finding Wooly Bears with HUGE orange stripes and we ended up with one of the 5 mildest winters on record. This year I am finding them with ZERO orange stripe - a first in my lifetime of over 40 years! This means a doozy of a winter!

I also gauge the migration of the hummingbirds to determine the onset. This year the hummingbirds migrated two weeks earlier than their normal October 7 to 10th. Last fall, it was 2 weeks later - almost the end of October.

I use lake temperature (Lake Erie) to gauge snowfall. Last year the lake maintained an average temperature and we had average precitation - I say that because it fell as rain it was so warm. This year, the lake is trending warmer later into fall than normal - this will lead to much higher precipitation, likely as snow. This means that clippers out of the north have the opportunity to pick up more moisture as they pass over the lake AND that the lake will freeze over much later in the year thus allowing for more snow accumulation.

I could keep going, but my fingers are getting tired! The bottom line... This is going to be a very bad winter for the mid-west. I hope everyone takes some time to prepare ahead of time.

reply to post by la2


That's very interesting...have been looking for a long range forecast here for a while, but didn't come up with anything substantial. May I ask what your source is please?

Last winter was very mild in comparison, with very little snowfall here (I'm in north east Scotland) compared to most years, but the winter before that was the worst I ever remember....5 months of snow on the ground, to 5 feet or more at times, daytime temperatures of -15, and it just went on and on and on....

Somehow I'm not surprised by this forecast, and I'm well prepped already. I have a feeling and this has been confirmed by what I've heard from farmers here, that this winter may well be a very bad one. Lots of snow, early snowfalls, and very low temperatures.

We always watch the signs of nature so I would say my concern about this year is that if it is *not* a harder winter than those recently experienced (given all the natural indications reported in this thread that indicate it will be), then there could be a chance that we might be in for some kind of unexpected change or shift.

reply to post by SeesFar

Exactly. I'm not sure if we're just riding along with nature, and because of all the 2012 hype, we're noticing things more intensely for the first time, or perhaps, nature senses something wicked this way comes, and we're unable to interpret what we see with any certainty.

Anybody who lives out in the country tends to watch nature, as it is all around us. Everybody is noticing the plants and animals doing their fall thing much earlier this year. All we can do is prepare for what could be a rough winter, and hope it's not too bad.

As far as a shift.....Well, what can we do about that, other than be stocked up, and ride it out? Part of me says, in all the history of mankind, how many have witnessed a global shift (and lived to tell about it)? There is a definite curiosity on my part, but not exactly a fear. Maybe with all the talk about it, I've become somewhat numb to the possibility. My personal feeling is that December 21st will come and go, and nothing big will occur.

But if it does, I purchased many heirloom seeds, not just for food, but for medicinal herbs and spices. I hope that where ever my little patch of land ends up in regards to the equator, it is amenable to growing a garden.

reply to post by la2


It was pretty miserable here in west Texas for the 2010 / 2011 season as well. I've never been so cold in my life. Not just the cold, but the constant biting winds, and plenty of snow. Perhaps there is a correlation between where you're at, and where I'm at. Something I need to look into....

Forewarned is forearmed! Stay warm.

reply to post by kozmo


Some really fascinating information. I've never heard of the wooly bear caterpillar, but of course, there aren't a great deal of trees where I live. I wonder what the connection is between the orange stripe and the temperatures...?

Now, the weather prognisticators state that the El Nino is mild, but when one takes the Arctic Oscillation into account, to me, that would be the true indicator of how cold it is going to be for the northern hemisphere. The El Nino only brings the moisture in, and affects the jet stream. Add freezing temps, and you get lots of snow storms.

In any case, your post was very informative, and bolsters the general consensus that it's gonna be a long, cold winter.

reply to post by caitlinfae


Yes. The farmers know, because their livelihoods depend on it.

Well around here, just north of Buffalo New York fall seems to be right on track so far. Although it is trending to be a colder fall than most recent years. I was hoping to go until the end of the month before firing up the wood stove, but have used it a couple times already, nights dipping into the mid 30's. Not sure if it's true for everyone but around here the winter seems to be colder if there is no snow, the snow actually insulates the house against the cruel winds of winter. A good 3 to 4 foot snow pack around the foundation seems to keep the basement warmer as well. We have had one hell of a hot dry summer so I am fully expecting a winter where the snowplow drivers make a killing. And yes to everyone that has spoken about the lake effect rain/snow machine, it is a microclimate in itself. This time of year I can usually count on not seeing the moon or stars but on occasion because of the constant cloud cover and when it is clear it just sucks the heat out of everything....

reply to post by jaynkeel


I agree. Clear cold nights allow the heat to escape straight up into the atmosphere, making it worse. Down here in Texas, a "blue northern" will blow through, it'll be pretty cold, it'll snow, and then it blows away at night, so the temperatures plummet and everything is icy and frozen stiff.

Clouds keep heat in, not just block the sun. The humidity does its part to keep the temperature up. That's why the nights out here in the desert get cool and pleasant, even during the height of summer. At 12% humidity, the heat goes away in a hurry.

We're on the tail end of the the last few years' La Niña event, so this is nothing noteworthy.