Weak El Nino Predicted for Winter 2012 / 2013

alot of people are going to die this winter
the idea of a drought leading into a hell of a winter tells me that starving people are gonna die people are going to freeze to death and people may get violent when there hungry
say good by to your first world pleasures

it seems not the government nature or even god himself or whatever you believe whats us to continue the way we where i
ce storms can cut out power easy where i live in the south an inch of snow put people at home for a week if i don't make it and you too don't make it alteast we didn't die asleep.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Oh please make sure she has all the preps she will need to stay warm and cozy no matter what comes her precious way, hey we are not preppers to save only our own arses! I feel for you, I adore my children too and next year I will have my first one off to college...

reply to post by ronnypeppers


Dont give up so easily on the real backbone of America honey, the truckers, the farmers and the caring people who will come to the aid of their neighbor in times of need. Just as there are real bad guys out there, there are also really good ones too, find the balance and you will be just fine.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


LOL, ok now I must get to work! Keep the overviews coming! Love the thread and will bump it often if you'll keep the info fresh and well balanced.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


from what i have researched a mild to moderate el nino pattern has very little correlating evidence on our winters.

NOAA admits this. moderate to strong el nino events have more correlating evidence so at this point it's a guessing game but as can be seen, weather predictions are always a guessing game and have a low percentage of accuracy. meteorologists have a hard time being accurate about what the weather will be like a week from now, let alone months from now.

www.erh.noaa.gov...

reply to post by _BoneZ_


I live and work right on Lake Michigan so the snows not too bad till your inland about 5 miles. That said if the wind comes out of the north west instead of the south west hold on. About 6 years ago it started about Novenber 1st and lasted till May for a while it was 6"+ a day till it was 4' packed and the sides of the roads were piled 10' high

I heard we are going to have a fun winter. :/ I already had to turn the heat on.

What a coincidence that meterologists decided to start naming winter storms. .....

reply to post by eriktheawful


I hear you on the ice storms. They are the worst. Would rather deal with a hurricane.

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


Meterology has put a lot of focus on the ninos, ninas. There is a lot more going on then just that, that affects winter.

What happens in Canada, for one

So thats the US covered.....any news for the UK ?

Right now we are having a lot of rain, but as someone else said weather information has been hard to come by for this winter, I've tried researching what might be coming, but coming up short on the reliability factor on any information I find.

Originally posted by _BoneZ_
Thanks for this information. I live near Lake Michigan and have been saying all summer that with the lake being its warmest on record, and if we get the real arctic cold from the north, we'll have some major lake-effect snows that we haven't seen before.

Time to dig in for a real winter!

I surely hope so, the past few winters have been relatively depressing up here, I could use a nice blizzard!

I have been hearing all summer that this winter will be brutal, so button down the hatches and hold on!

Peace.

Originally posted by solargeddon
So thats the US covered.....any news for the UK ?

Right now we are having a lot of rain, but as someone else said weather information has been hard to come by for this winter, I've tried researching what might be coming, but coming up short on the reliability factor on any information I find.

I read a forecast the other week for the UK, said something about the jet stream staying in a similar position as it has been recently will provide us with cold weather and a possibility of above average snowfall.

This thread was meant as a bit of education concerning what they look at when trying to determine the weather pattern for a season.

As in all predictive threads, there is an element of uncertainty, but the weather out here where I live is very different this fall so far then it was last fall, and I had heard that we were in a weak El Nino pattern. The behavior of our weather has been consistent with that information.

The purpose of predictive weather is to give people a head's up as to potentially problematic weather conditions. It never hurts to be prepared, and if nothing bad happens, well, at least you bought extra food and water while it was cheaper, because the prices will go up. Oh, not until after the election, of course, but I guarantee the prices will be shocking.

I also did this thread to educate myself as to the various elements that come together to make winter what it is. I do enjoy the snow out here, as I'm retired and don't have to go out in it if I don't want to.

Ice storms? Those are the worst, most hazardous types of storms. Either give me snow, or rain. Not that middle-of-the road, break all the power cables and tree branches, ice that sticks all over everything.

It seems to me that the main driver of weather along the southern tier of the United States is the El Nino or La Nina Pacific pattern, combined with the negative Arctic Oscillation, which will allow the freezing air to dip south. The Atlantic ocean temperature seem to affect the upper midwest and east coast.

Sorry for the delay in coming back on this thread, I was waiting for the launch of the famous skydiving daredevil, Felix Baumgartner, to take off from Roswell, New Mexico, and fly up to the edge of space, then free-fall dive back down to earth. I should be able to see the huge balloon from where I live, but the launch was cancelled due to windy conditions. Seems to me they should have done it in the summertime, it is always windy here in the fall, and that's not a prediction, it's a fact.

Anyway....a weak El Nino isn't as interesting as a strong one, however it should help to alleviate some of the drought conditions which have been plaguing much of the US in the past few years.

BTW, I did run across some predictions that this fall will be a rough one if storms develop, and by that I mean, tornadoes and high winds. The problem area will be anywhere from the central US down through the southeast, so please keep an eye on the weather when storms are predicted.

I know this thread has nothing to do with tornadoes, but it is common knowledge here in the south that fall is the "second tornado season", and tornadoes have been known to become wicked and deadly in the south as late as December.

The hot spots appear to be where they usually are (bullseye in Missouri).

As usual, if we have an insanely windy day out here during this season, I will post a warning, because that means there's a vicious low pulling the wind from the west into its center, and usually, somebody will get a tornado out of it, unfortunately.

Stay safe, y'all.

i'm unsure if any of you heard this old indian joke, so i thought i would post it for humor's sake and bring some smiles.

"It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation
asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold
or mild. Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern
society, he had never been taught the old secrets.

When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather
was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he
replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to
be cold and that the members of the village should collect
firewood to be prepared.

Also, being a practical leader, after several days he got
an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National
Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to
be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold
indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service
responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told
them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.

A week later, he called the National Weather Service
again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?"

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied,
"it's definitely going to be a very cold winter." The
Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to
collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service
again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going
to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of
the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting wood
like crazy."



no offense meant to Fission Surplus as i have come to enjoy and agree on many of her threads and posts.

reply to post by nixie_nox


I thought it was strange as well. Either they are looking to get more ratings by naming storms, or they know the upcoming storms will be name-worthy.

Good point!

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


LOL! That's a good one. No offense taken. Trying to predict what hasn't happened is treading on thin ice, indeed, but it never hurts to look at potential weather patterns. I have always found weather fascinating, and out where I live, one had better pay attention to it, because it can get ugly in a hurry.

The last time it got ugly was in the spring, and we were terribly close to a tornado. I knew it was bad when I was watching the local weather, and saw my house on the bottom of the screen, with the vicious storm just behind it. I went outside, and the local storm chaser was parked at the end of our road, filming it. Gee, our 15 minutes of fame! Had the tornado gone a tad south and took our house out, we may have gotten perhaps a half hour of fame. I'll pass, thanks!

My grandpa thinks we'll have a rough winter, so I'm preparing for a rough winter. He's just an old cowboy, but I'd trust his "prediction" before the meteorologist. He's never been wrong before, so I think its safe to assume he'll be pretty close this time too.

Even with that said, winter was really mild for us last year, so I would not be surprised if this year Mother Nature decides to make up for lost time.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Thank you for that information. It is very interesting!

Last winter we had a blizzard here on Halloween. It knocked out power for days, and the heavy snow took down most of the trees in our neighborhood, including our front yard. It was a surprise for many people to get hit so hard so early, and most were unprepared. It was hard to get a generator if you did not already have one.

This year I hope to be prepared in advance for this kind of thing, so thanks for the reminder! I'm good on food and water and such, but I need to replenish the snow salt and propane, etc. I never did get a generator, so maybe its time for that as well.

reply to post by riddle6


"Old cowboys" and elderly farmers out here in Texas know more about the weather than anybody else I've ever met. They have to know, obviously, since they work outside all year long.

The cotton farmers out this way always watch for signs of an early hard freeze, because then they don't have to worry about applying defoliant to their cotton plants after harvest. A freeze will defoliate the plants for them, saving them lots of money and time.

They seem to feel that this winter will be colder and more active than last year. Of course, last year was so ridiculously mild that it's an easy prediction to make.

I'd listen to your grandpa. He's spent a lifetime watching the skies and feeling the winds.