Polls are a refined breed of statistics. Both genres have in common the manipulation of data to support an objective. Polls, however, do have the
added functionality of affecting voter turn-out and providing disinformation to opposing camps; all in real time video game style. In a close race
like the one at hand, it is reasonably possible to see the pivotal points massaged by Democratic and Republican projections to achieve the desired
results.
The Republican Spin on the Polls:
On the EV front, using the Rasmussen Report data only, it looks like we still have 131 within 5%: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota,
Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin. On the basis of spreads over 5% we have Bush at 213 and Kerry at 194. As good a way as any to
conisder the data is to ask whether the undecided vote in a given state is sufficient to overcome the spread between the candidates.
On that basis (U=Undecided Vote & S*=Spread Bush / Kerry leading) here is how the
Republican Pollsters get Bush over the
line:
Colorado U(3%) < SB(4%) = Bush +9
Florida U(3%) = SB(3%) = In Play (+B) +27
Iowa U(3%) < SK(4%) = Kerry +7
Michigan U(3%) = SK(3%) = In Play (+K) +17
Minnesota U(5%) > S?(0%) = In Play +0 (10?)
Nevada U(4%) > SB(2%) = In Play (+B) +5
New Mexico U(3%) > S?(0%) = In Play +0 (5?)
Ohio U(3%) > SB (2%) = In Play (+B) +20
Pennsylvania U(4%) > SK(1%) = In Play (+K) +21
Wisconsin U(1%) = SK (1%) = In Play (+K) +10
Bush= 213 + 9 + 27 + 5 + 20 = 274
Kerry= 194 + 7 + 17 + 21 + 10 = 249
If you spott Kerry the 15 from Minnesota and New Mexico dead heats that would take him to 264. That seems to be how the Republican pollsters make the
prediction of
274-264 Bush (see
www.electionprojection.com... below)(both cited by The Big O in the thread
shown below.)
The slight hitch: basically, must ignore the disadvantage of the incument among the undecided voters and assume Bush wins in all the states that are
In Play in which he has a lead and those where the spread is greater than the undecided vote.
The Democratic Spin
To get to the Democratic prediction of
253-247 Kerry & counting, the
Democratic Pollsters account
for the fact that New Hamshire has moved into the <5% spread and is now reporting a 47% dead heat, together with the only other dead heats being
Florida and Iowa also at 47%; leaving 38 EV"s up for grabs. You then have to allocate the small spread states as follows:
Bush: Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico =34
Kerry: Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania=64.
The slight hitch: to get here you have to use the most advantageous selective data from different polls taken at different times.
www.rasmussenreports.com
October 15, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 194.
There are now ten states with 131 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
Today"s change results from moving Florida back to Toss-Up status. While the President has been ahead every day in our Florida Tracking Poll, his
lead has been below the five-point level for several days. Generally speaking, we consider a state in the Toss-Up category unless one candidate leads
by at least five points.
Over the past week, John Kerry gained back twenty-five Electoral Votes as New Jersey and Maryland moved back to "Leans Kerry" status. Both of these
states were expected to be in the Democratic column when the campaign began. In the week leading up to the first debate, Kerry"s lead declined in
both states and they were shifted to our Toss-Up column. However, Kerry has never trailed in either state.
Over the past two weeks, Kerry has also gained ground in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. But, none have moved enough at the moment to shift out
of Toss-Up status. To review our most recent state-by-state projection, click HERE.
Please visit the link provided for the complete story.
For a Democratic spin go to the www.electoral-vote.com link below and for a Republican spin go to www.electionprojection.com below (cited by The Big
O in the supporting discussion thread below).
In order to get to either projection, there are two necessary ingredients: the acceptance of a gushing overoptimism and the suspension of disbelief.
The reality seems to be that the US elctorate is no less deadlocked than it was in 2000 and the election will be decided by voter turn-out and an
eerie element of random chance (something like a Supreme Court opinion).
Related News Links:
www.electoral-vote.com
www.electionprojection.com
Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
POLITICS: Bush Opens 4 Point Lead In latest Reuters/Zogby Poll
[edit on 17-10-2004 by G_Scard]
Mod Edit: Deleted the ATSNN Submission Header
[edit on 10/18/04 by FredT]
