$5.00 dollar a gallon gas is back yay!! (NOT), page 1


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reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 09:43 PM by facelift
reply to post by sylent6


What in the world is going on here??





Consumer rule # 1 - you will get what you need at any cost...





reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 09:58 PM by antonia
Originally posted by sylent6

What in the world is going on here??



It's complicated, but I expect the price will crash again akin to 2008 and return to the floor as it's a unsustainable price. expect this kind of market to continue with prices rising dramatically and then falling again. The real problem is the cheaper oil is decling in production. This is no fault of government, rather it's just the reality of finite oil. Eventually every well runs dry. Now, we are advancing technology to get more out these wells, but it's expensive and the price gets passed on at the pump. The other problem is this: All other sources of oil are expensive. Read this analysis. The much vaunted Dakota oil shale boom is also adding to the problem. The main points in the analysis I will attempt speak too.

Presently the estimated break even price for the “average” well in the Bakken formation in North Dakota is $80 - $90/Bbl In plain language this means that presently the commercial profitability for new wells is barely positive.


In other words, to even make a minor profit with Bakken oil the price must be close to 100 dollars a barrel. Higher if you want a sustainable profit.

The “average” well now yields around 85 000 Bbls during the first 12 months of production and then experiences a year over year decline of 40% (+/-) 2%


It's live fast, die young at the Bakken fields and that doesn't help any.

With China and India fast becoming larger consumers than the U.S., there just isn't enough to go around. Could we dig new wells? Sure, but it's not likely to be enough to cover increased demand. These wells are not conventional crude either. This would be more expensive oil and it's price will be passed on at the pump. Furthermore, when prices go under 110 most of the Oil companies slow down new digging rigs as most of these new rigs require higher prices to be profitable.

I have no magical fairy wand to wave at this and anyone who proclaims they have a simple solution is full of poop. It's a complex problem, and with an uncertain future regarding the Earth's climate, I think the woe's are just going to keep stacking up as our population is ungovernable. No one has the guts to tell American's the truth.

There is of course the problem of Oil companies, but you can't say anything about this without getting red baited around here so I will leave it at that.
edit on 4-10-2012 by antonia because: added a thought
edit on 4-10-2012 by antonia because: opps
edit on 4-10-2012 by antonia because: added a thought



reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:01 PM by moniesisfun
This thread is starting to remind me of the fools who posit that because the local weather is okay, no climate change exists...

The national price is solid, as far as I can tell. A reason has already been given for the northern California price surge, yet members keep on spouting blablabla...c'mon guys and gals.

reply to post by antonia


Everything you say seems to be spot on as far as I can tell, except it's not applicable to the current situation. You have a more long-range understanding of what's going on, and will happen, rather than what the cause is of this specific price increase in central or northern California.

I'd also add that the price will likely spike as it did in 2007, before it crashes again. Each cycle we will likely see a new high breached, so expect it to be $150+ before the global economy starts to free fall again.

Another thing I'd like to add, is that I have hope in the green goo, becoming the new black gold. The tech needs to be improved, but may be our best hope to keep civilization afloat in the coming decades, as is.
edit on 4-10-2012 by moniesisfun because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:03 PM by Ex_CT2
reply to post by sylent6



...

The current situation has been exacerbated by a power outage at a refinery in Torrance on Monday that halted production. It follows a power outage and weeklong shutdown at a refinery in Wilmington in mid-September.


Sure--as someone clumsily kicks the plug out of the wall.

Same here in the (San Francisco) Bay Area. And then, of course, there was the (more than a little suspicious) fire at the Richmond refinery awhile back.

And then, of course as buster2010 points out:

Originally posted by buster2010
Oil companies are greedy and they also do these things when they have someone they want to get into office. So they create a artificial shortage to jack prices to make people think we need to get more oil. The facts are we are pumping more oil and gas than we ever have. But if you listened to Romney last night you would think we are almost out of oil. And seeing how he will give the oil companies what they want the sleazebags running the oil companies hopes that these shortages will get people to vote for Romney.


So bend over again, folks. One thing the gas companies got plenty of is LUBE...!


reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:12 PM by moniesisfun
reply to post by antonia


That's just not so.

Linky

1 month:


12 month:

edit on 4-10-2012 by moniesisfun because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:16 PM by MsAphrodite
Originally posted by buster2010
Oil companies are greedy and they also do these things when they have someone they want to get into office. So they create a artificial shortage to jack prices to make people think we need to get more oil. The facts are we are pumping more oil and gas than we ever have.But if you listened to Romney last night you would think we are almost out of oil. And seeing how he will give the oil companies what they want the sleazebags running the oil companies hopes that these shortages will get people to vote for Romney.



In light of your post, lets take a look at what both candidates actually said.

What President Obama said:



On energy, Governor Romney and I, we both agree that we've got to boost American energy production, and oil and natural gas production are higher than they've been in years. But I also believe that we've got to look at the energy sources of the future, like wind and solar and biofuels, and make those investments.


Therefore what you just insinuated is not true. Here is what Mitt Romney actually said:



The third area, energy. Energy is critical, and the president pointed out correctly that production of oil and gas in the U.S. is up. But not due to his policies. In spite of his policies. Mr. President, all of the increase in natural gas and oil has happened on private land, not on government land. On government land, your administration has cut the number of permits and licenses in half. If I'm president, I'll double them, and also get the -- the oil from offshore and Alaska. And I'll bring that pipeline in from Canada.



reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:23 PM by antonia
reply to post by moniesisfun


I stand corrected.



reply to post by MsAphrodite


Both of whom are full of crap. They are merely serving platitudes to gullible people who have no understanding of the issue. Spare me.


reply posted on 4-10-2012 @ 10:23 PM by hoochymama
reply to post by moniesisfun
So, your Historical Gas price graph is for the year 2012 and the prices on ur graph only have a variance of .09cents??

Lets see a graph for the last 5-6 years than get an actual Historical Graph from the previous 50 years and add inflation into the mix. I guarantee that these prices dont fit even for todays standards.

The Historic rise was the precurser to get us used to $3.00 a gallon gas. So, when the fluctuations move to $4.00 its not that big of deal. Now, going from $.99 a gallon to $2.00 or even $2.50 was a huge deal.
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