When the Music Stops: How America's Cities May Explode in Violence

This is a longish but very interesting article titled When the Music Stops: How America's Cities May Explode in Violence. It posits a rather detailed scenario for urban unrest and citizen response. I don't agree with its conclusions 100% but I think it is good material for stimulating thought and discussion.

The article begins with a "what if" scenario involving the interruption of food flow into urban areas, due perhaps to an economic catastrophe or another type of disruptive crisis. It posits "flash mob" type situations, where hungry people (perhaps justifiably -should they just starve?) begin to take over grocery stores and the like. "Flash mobs" have already become a reality in other contexts:





As society decays further, the author posits a further development of this trend into the next stage: "flash mob riots," where gangs mediated by social media and Internet communication converge in more organized and deadly forms to harass commuters on the peripheries of urban areas, and expand their reach into suburbs and other areas previously considered safe:

....They will concentrate on major intersections and highway interchanges where non-MUY suburban commuters must make daily passage to and from what forms of employment still exist. People making a living will still be using those roads to get to where they earn their daily bread....

....Rioters will throw debris such as shopping carts and trash cans into the intersection, causing the more timid drivers to pause. The mobs will swarm the lines of trapped cars once they have stopped. Traffic will be forced into gridlock for blocks in all directions. Drivers and passengers...will be pulled from their vehicles to be beaten, robbed, and in some cases raped and/or killed. It will be hyper-violent....on a massive and undeniable basis...

...The mob will be armed with everything from knives, clubs and pistols to AK-47s. A bloodbath will result. These unlucky drivers and their passengers will suffer horribly, and some of their deaths will be captured on traffic web cameras. Later, these terrible scenes will be released or leaked by sympathetic government insiders and shown by the alternative media, which continue to expand as the traditional media become increasingly irrelevant.

The law enforcement infrastructure, perhaps hobbled by budget cuts and unable to use decisive force due to official protocols, will be unable to respond effectively. In the past, police radio communications served as a force multiplier, giving the police a distinct advantage in these kinds of situations. But with the rise of smartphones, texting, and social networks, the rioters will be able to meet that challenge with effective communication networks of their own.

The last part of the article deals with citizen responses. It posits armed vigilantism scenarios, neighborhood militias and sniper tactics, and perhaps more widespread carrying of arms by commuters and others.

The racial angle: a disclaimer: The article lays out the scenario using ideas about racial conflict that I do not personally find offensive or racist, but that some may view as controversial. It is my belief that civil unrest is possible among members of ANY racial group, and it would be simplistic to view this in a solely "black and white" context. What if "occupy" (with its large white population) or something similar morphed into a more violent version as times became tougher? In such situation, many of the conclusions drawn in the article could apply to whites as well as minorities.

 I don't think it's possible to discount ethnic tensions entirely - the article reminds us of the tri-ethnic conflict in Yugoslavia, as one example, and points to the possibility that something similar could happen in multiple US locations as tensions among black, white, and Hispanic communities might escalate. I think it's a fair and plausible line of thought to entertain. However, I want to state for the record that I'm certainly not trying to inflame racial tensions on ATS, which is always a risk when these topics come up. So let's keep the terms and conditions in mind and try to elevate the  conversation to avoid degenerating into racial mudslinging.

What do you think, ATS? Is the article's civil unrest scenario plausible? If so, how soon? If not, why not? How would you handle this kind of situation? How should the public and private sectors handle it?

When Obama loses the election, that is when the race riots/race war will begin. The blacks will claim "racism" and there will be violence, mark my words. This will start the war. Question remains however: How will this be handled by the government? Why, martial law of course.

the flash mob and the decay of american society is a direct reflection of the leadership of the country.

when the people see their leaders lie, steal and kill and get away with it, they are going to follow their examples.

the msm bombards the people with images of executives defrauding and embezzling billions and get light sentences and probation.

they witnessed first hand the financial collapse and the criminal theft of entire life savings and mortgages and not one person was held accountable or paraded in front of the world in handcuffs, showing the rule of law and justice is still alive and strong.

your enemies have already landed on american soil along time ago.

so i don't why you're sending the strongest among you to foreign lands thousands of miles away.

i think i just answered my own question.

This has already begun in America and rather terribly far down the list you present, too. I was just reading and looking up stats last night about Detroit. Shops there have neighborhood gangs literally occupy (NO relation to the national movement of that name) their stores at will and camp out...take what they want and whatever else. The cops don't do much and the shop keepers can do what? Accept it, shoot them or move.

The police force has, by reports for years, broken down in a way we'd recognize in most of America. I haven't heard about any intersection/roadblock type things but hell...who knows with some of the vets coming back now having gone over as gang members with clean records getting military training for the neighborhood here.

It's a scary thing.. Now the articles I saw were also racial in focus, but that's friggen laughable and ought to be treated that way. Detroit is 82% Black so making a point of that as the % in the crimes is stupid. It's a matter of the basic order in at least that area starting to break down in a serious way and not just by numbers on paper. That started a long way back and well into the early 90's..

I read the article in question - I think a former SEAL wrote it. It’s very credible and seems to make sense in how he lays out the reactions of the various segments of the population.

I agree with the poster who said god help us if Obama is defeated in anything other than an unquestionable landslide - I predict race riots. I personally don't know how Obama will react his past MO is to inflame such things as they suit his agenda.

Will be interesting to see - I am insulated from such drama living totally rural 98.5% white in the whole county. However, a good portion of the population depend in part at least on some government assistance so if there is a crash these people will at least protest - they may not riot and tear down their own neighborhoods but they will be hit hard for sure. I think there will be a upturn in crime for sure.

reply to post by silent thunder


If you want to see this in real life right now, you might want to go to South Africa. There are flash mobs that do almost empty grocery stores. There is a debris driven culture to stop cars so that drivers and passengers can be robbed, raped and/or killed and their cars stolen. The ANC government and mass media are irrelevant as they have no way to stop or control most of the incidents or the violence. South Africa is experiencing the intermediary steps to wholesale and rampant violence on a national scale and is still either the first or second most violent and crime ridden country in the world.

Cheers - Dave

Originally posted by bobs_uruncle
reply to post by silent thunder

 

If you want to see this in real life right now, you might want to go to South Africa. There are flash mobs that do almost empty grocery stores. There is a debris driven culture to stop cars so that drivers and passengers can be robbed, raped and/or killed and their cars stolen. The ANC government and mass media are irrelevant as they have no way to stop or control most of the incidents or the violence. South Africa is experiencing the intermediary steps to wholesale and rampant violence on a national scale and is still either the first or second most violent and crime ridden country in the world.

Cheers - Dave

The American urban core is not far from what I have seen in Africa. The large concentrations of blacks seem to live a very similar lifestyle of gangs and corruption, overpopulation, lack of a family unit, etc… Why? Seems odd with all the leg up programs out there things seem to be getting worse for blacks not better. I think the problem might be nature vs. nurture?

Africans had a chance to adopt a European lifestyle and society and some of the countries that did are perhaps the most successful in the continent’s history. The rest of the nations rejected the Eurocentric model and devolved into rampant tribalism and criminal thuggery. Haiti is the same way in our hemisphere – total failure.

Take S. Africa for instance before 1994 and the ANC won the election with Nelson Mandela as the president, the nation was stable if not entirely accommodating of the black majority. In summary, the tension due to the lack of freedoms pre-1994 has been replaced by tension due to a lack of any guarantee of personal safety.

When the ANC took over; suddenly a surge in unemployment of both blacks and whites hit the country. Desperation and hunger became the order of the day for so many and the only way to survive was to steal. Slowly things got better but it is still not enough to make a definite change. The economy has improved since, but economic disparities persist.

Now crime rates are not just highest among industrialized nations, but nearly the highest overall. Despite official statistics showing a recent decline in crime rates - murder rates have more than tripled in the New South Africa after the ANC. Most of the crime is committed in the big cities. People surround their houses with electric fencing or razor wire and alarms. The security firms are booming, and the educated of all races flee for European nations.

The question has to be asked why? There is a trend in Africa (especially in the Sub Sahara) and then Haiti as well - what is the thing all these nation-states have in common?

Could it possibly be the 800lb gorilla in the room no one wants to acknowledge?

The races on the planet are different not only in physical appearance but in their mental make-up and ability - be it intellect, drive and or ability to succeed as a group.

Whatever you want to call it there is a clear and glaring disparity in the willingness of different races to surrender the individual to the greater good, their sexual habits, spending vs. saving habits and marital commitments along with the role of fatherhood.

There has been some research done in the past on the racial predispositions to certain social norms and mental ability, nature vs. nurture and other kinds of studies but regardless of the caliber of the study the people just won’t hear it for some reason.

TPTB want none of it leaked - most people willingly accept that while there may be real physical differences between races any perceived differences in mental ability must be related to outside factors not genetics.

I remember the Bell Curve and the controversy it generated.

Africa is a nightmare – I have been to Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Djibouti and other places. Basically they are living in a feudal system of thuggery and might makes right.

Take away our leg up programs and crutches and I think our urban core will be right behind them.

I've thought hard about a situation such as this. My wife is an RN at a hospital, we live in a small town 40 miles away. She drives on a major highway to work, but once in town, there are many, many intersections she has to go through. Anything could happen in that distance. I have a choice: Leave our kids with a neighbor I trust and ride to work with her as an armed escort, or convince her to quit till things get better, which could be quite a while. I have no doubt that, sooner or later, things will get this bad. It's just a matter of time.

the US is not South Africa, completely different circumstances for each country, you can't compare.

When TSHTF in America, I really don't think there will be much going on. You live in one, if not, the most militarized countries in the world. It won't even get to flash mobs.

A few weeks of riots, cities burning and lots of innocent deaths and 99% of people will be ready to fall into line and accept whatever the government tells them especially with armed police on every corner.

The truth is most people are sheep and will act accordingly when it all goes down. Those who riot, flash mob, etc will be promptly killed and jailed. The only difference I think it will really make are to those who are involved in organized crime, it will afford them the opportunity to do what they do best, exploit people.

We like to envision this Mad Max scenario but it's not going to get to that. Your leaders need you, the need you to keep working, they need you to keep consuming, they need you to keep paying taxes. Rest assured Law and Order will be restored. Lots of people will be broke, homeless, in jails and camps, working dead end jobs and basically struggling to get by but race riots, gun battles, cities on fire and all that other # is not going to happen. It might happen for a minute but nothing different than what we've seen in other countries.

Originally posted by DAVID64
I've thought hard about a situation such as this. My wife is an RN at a hospital, we live in a small town 40 miles away. She drives on a major highway to work, but once in town, there are many, many intersections she has to go through. Anything could happen in that distance. I have a choice: Leave our kids with a neighbor I trust and ride to work with her as an armed escort, or convince her to quit till things get better, which could be quite a while. I have no doubt that, sooner or later, things will get this bad. It's just a matter of time.

Dude, in a SHTF situation your wife's profession as an RN will become your ticket to local success. Give up that commute when things get too bad.

Once the stupid rules and regulations are forgotten and people are worried more with survival than federal licensing rules - hang out a shingle and trade her expertise for what you need. Hell get some horses and make house calls.

An RN in that situation with some basic supplies on hand can save a lot of lives.

Hell most RN's know more about medicine than the young Doctors most of us see. Sure a Dr. with 20 years of practice is irreplaceable but the experienced RNs are the ones who save the interns butter all the time.

Originally posted by wrdwzrd
A few weeks of riots, cities burning and lots of innocent deaths and 99% of people will be ready to fall into line and accept whatever the government tells them especially with armed police on every corner.

A lot can happen in a few weeks - I was in the military for 24 years to be honest with you I don't think they can deploy enough Soldiers in a few weeks to quell rioting in major cities.

Originally posted by wrdwzrd
The truth is most people are sheep and will act accordingly when it all goes down. Those who riot, flash mob, etc will be promptly killed and jailed. The only difference I think it will really make are to those who are involved in organized crime, it will afford them the opportunity to do what they do best, exploit people.

In Katrina which lasted a few days they had police leave and just go home. After a few weeks, the police will retreat to their own homes to protect their own families and feed them. They might form a gang for their own protection. The military will have desertion issues as Soldiers worry for their own families. The longer it goes on the worse it will get if it takes place simultaneously in large metro areas I think it will collapse the system.

Originally posted by wrdwzrd
We like to envision this Mad Max scenario but it's not going to get to that. Your leaders need you, the need you to keep working, they need you to keep consuming, they need you to keep paying taxes. Rest assured Law and Order will be restored. Lots of people will be broke, homeless, in jails and camps, working dead end jobs and basically struggling to get by but race riots, gun battles, cities on fire and all that other # is not going to happen. It might happen for a minute but nothing different than what we've seen in other countries.

I don't disagree with all you say about the leaders and what they need - however, the other countries don’t have as many weapons to fight back. If the police/National Guard/Military start shooting people - the response will set off major gunfights and huge loss of life.

I respect your opinion - I just disagree.

Originally posted by Golf66


In Katrina which lasted a few days they had police leave and just go home. After a few weeks, the police will retreat to their own homes to protect their own families and feed them. They might form a gang for their own protection. The military will have desertion issues as Soldiers worry for their own families. The longer it goes on the worse it will get if it takes place simultaneously in large metro areas I think it will collapse the system.

Heck, Katrina some officers were looting with civilians.

I will feel sorry for the flash mobs, they will be met by every gun toting man, woman, grandpa and grandma.

238 million guns in the civilian population.

www.numberof.net...

Flash mobs? Bring it!

reply to post by Golf66


I agree with what you say, I think the difference for me is that Katrina was a natural disaster while what is happening now is pre-meditated (IMHO) The situation that is unfolding is just one part of a larger puzzle, in particular, bringing in a new currency (for the US and Europe) bringing down the standard of living in the US and generally ushering in more control. I liken it more to what happened in the USSR than to Katrina. This is slow and deliberate, while a natural disaster is quick and unpredictable.

Soldiers and police, and the wealthy for that matter, probably won't have to worry too much about the safety of their families. The casualties most likely inflicted will occur amongst the poor in urban centers and those caught with their pants down. All of the planning that is happening, military training in urban centers, NDAA, militarization of police, large scale jails and camps, etc are all just waiting for this to go down.

I'm not saying it won't be brutal, I'm sure it will, but I think it will be more of a quick fast burn than a long sustained one. like i said 99% of us want order, we want normalcy, we will listen to whoever says "go here" "do this" "stay inside" etc. until it all blows over, which is whenever the desired solution can be brought forth and we can all sing the praises of whoever hands it to us. this is just my 2 cents. I guess only time will tell....

Originally posted by Golf66

Originally posted by bobs_uruncle
reply to post by silent thunder

 

If you want to see this in real life right now, you might want to go to South Africa. There are flash mobs that do almost empty grocery stores. There is a debris driven culture to stop cars so that drivers and passengers can be robbed, raped and/or killed and their cars stolen. The ANC government and mass media are irrelevant as they have no way to stop or control most of the incidents or the violence. South Africa is experiencing the intermediary steps to wholesale and rampant violence on a national scale and is still either the first or second most violent and crime ridden country in the world.

Cheers - Dave

The American urban core is not far from what I have seen in Africa. The large concentrations of blacks seem to live a very similar lifestyle of gangs and corruption, overpopulation, lack of a family unit, etc… Why? Seems odd with all the leg up programs out there things seem to be getting worse for blacks not better. I think the problem might be nature vs. nurture?

Africans had a chance to adopt a European lifestyle and society and some of the countries that did are perhaps the most successful in the continent’s history. The rest of the nations rejected the Eurocentric model and devolved into rampant tribalism and criminal thuggery. Haiti is the same way in our hemisphere – total failure.

Take S. Africa for instance before 1994 and the ANC won the election with Nelson Mandela as the president, the nation was stable if not entirely accommodating of the black majority. In summary, the tension due to the lack of freedoms pre-1994 has been replaced by tension due to a lack of any guarantee of personal safety.

When the ANC took over; suddenly a surge in unemployment of both blacks and whites hit the country. Desperation and hunger became the order of the day for so many and the only way to survive was to steal. Slowly things got better but it is still not enough to make a definite change. The economy has improved since, but economic disparities persist.

Now crime rates are not just highest among industrialized nations, but nearly the highest overall. Despite official statistics showing a recent decline in crime rates - murder rates have more than tripled in the New South Africa after the ANC. Most of the crime is committed in the big cities. People surround their houses with electric fencing or razor wire and alarms. The security firms are booming, and the educated of all races flee for European nations.

The question has to be asked why? There is a trend in Africa (especially in the Sub Sahara) and then Haiti as well - what is the thing all these nation-states have in common?

Could it possibly be the 800lb gorilla in the room no one wants to acknowledge?

..../

Africa is a nightmare – I have been to Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Djibouti and other places. Basically they are living in a feudal system of thuggery and might makes right.

Take away our leg up programs and crutches and I think our urban core will be right behind them.

Fully agree, it's messed up in SA and it would go that way real fast here if it weren't for all the entitlement programs. I left SA in 1990 and was just talking to a bud of mine (former MI) a few minutes ago and he tells me it's going back to the old ways, frontier justice. The police can't keep up with all the murder, rape, drugs, robbery, house invasions, kidnapping, etc. so you catch 'em in the act, you kill 'em, real simple, I like them rules. A lot of the PC bunch on ATS might think that's a bit harsh, let me tell you, it's not.

I lived in South Africa for 4 years in the 80's before that scumbag mandela was sprung by the IMF and I worked for the military in national security infrastructure and weapons development, so I saw a lot. I saw things the ANC and MLA did to people that nobody should ever see, so I do know what they are about. Myself, I've been in SA/Lesotho/Swazi/Venda/Bophutatswana/Transkie/SWA-Namibia, Mozambique, Angola, Botswana, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Congo, Zaire, I think that's all of them LOL. Same S**t Different Places, except Botswana, they are adopting an intelligent approach, at least they were. I have a friend in Zambia that says they are doing pretty well, but I haven't been there so I don't know. That Robber Mugarbage in Zim is a real asshat, he has destroyed Zimbabwe.

I do know it's all tribal rules in Africa. One of the biggest problems is that no tribe will be ruled by another tribe, the xenophobia is rampant and epidemic and always seems to end in bloodshed at best, mass murder and genocide at worst. It's a beautiful continent, shame about the people.

Cheers - Dave

happened in Spain already.....and it was a pre-emptive flash mobs.

I don't think it would happen right away in places like NY though.

When we had the power outage on the whole east coast.....things were VERY orderly. Citizens directed traffic, organized search parties for missing people, and coordinated in the chaos flawlessly.

I don't know how long that would last, but if things got rough, we would have a response to violence rather quickly....in NY...

It would depend on the neighborhood, but for the most part, we would hold it down until the lights came back on....short of a foreign invasion, NY would be left standing.

I have no doubt that it will get that bad but i think martial law will be put into effect pretty quickly. since they will be outnumbered I think the police and the military will just cordon off entire sections of the cities ( like a cage at the zoo) where the worst rioting is taking place and just let the rioting run its course.When there is nothing left to eat,loot and burn in those sections of the cities then the authorities will move in and haul everyone off to camps.

reply to post by silent thunder


I dont disagree thatthere will be roving gangs but to organize a flash mob you need to be networked. To be networked you need money. I'd argue that before it gets that bad, there will berampant unemployment, thus no money to afford that mobile phone or internet connection.

Originally posted by thesmokingman
When Obama loses the election, that is when the race riots/race war will begin. The blacks will claim "racism" and there will be violence, mark my words. This will start the war. Question remains however: How will this be handled by the government? Why, martial law of course.

I think that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. America is not only divided by race, your political team mentality is equally as dangerous, as is the economic divide.

When it comes to the economic situation, the USA has done VERY LITTLE to repair the damage, people still live in ghettos with little chance of improving their lives. And yes, plenty of those people are from minority groups.

While you might think it's all about race, it's actually more about poverty and the limited avenues people have to escape it.

As for the videos, a lot of this is lack of police action. These stores have panic buttons in the event of a robbery, and yet it seems that most of the time the police turn up too late and in too small a number. We have the same problem in the UK.

My sister works for a local shop (part of a national chain), and they have people just walking out with stock every night. They have no security there, because the chain doesn't see the benefit financially. They might loose out on £200 of stock in a shift, but it costs them £100 to pay for that security every day and sometimes the losses are not enough to justify it.

They report it to the police, and the cops might turn up a day or two later, just to complete paperwork and make it look like they actually give a damn. It looks good on the statistics if they respond, even if it's two days late.

I'm gonna go and read the linked article, but good thread! Social collapse is something I am very interested in, because collective psychology is a fascinating subject for me, and I have a few theories myself on how things will play out.

I have a feeling I'll be back to comment again, but I had to get the response in here that thinking this is all about race is a typical xenophobic response to justify racism, in my opinion. People see a lot of black people doing this and preach racist views (I saw white kids there too, but I guess that doesn't fit the propaganda) but minorities are the more impoverished in America, so it's not as simple as race.

Okay, just reading through the linked article and I have a few things that I think deserve some commenting. I don't know a lot about how the social welfare system works in the USA, but I understand that most of it is based on a credit system which limits the purchasing power of the individual claiming it.

First, I don't believe for a moment that the media will try to justify the looting. The media is operated by people who have no concept of poverty. They live comfortable lives on high pay, their audience is typically middle class. Why would they even consider that rioting and looting are acceptable in any way? This makes no sense to me.

I agree that there will be major delays as a result of the looting, and that lack of stock will affect everyone. You have to look at what happened in the UK last year too, when the August riots put a lot of smaller businesses out of action. It wasn't just looting, it was arson too. Across the USA you would have groups within any desperate rioting for food who are content to just get what they can and cause as much damage as possible. You wouldn't only be looking at rioting for food, you'd be looking at general lawlessness causing widespread damage to stores, businesses and homes too.

This would affect everyone. And some will see that and have no choice but to participate. If you saw on the news that every store was being emptied and you knew that you only had enough food to last a couple of days, you would be out there joining in for your own survival too.

There are a few things the writer neglects. While focusing on the social, he neglects the political. The political divide in the USA is extreme, and the opposing side would be making a meal of this. There would be the potential for a political crisis in response to these events, and although that would be a complex path to go down, it would be worth some mention.

I also think there should be more emphasis on the police response. In several areas the police would act in the extreme. We've seen police in several states respond violently simply to a peaceful protest, you can bet that there would be curfews in place quickly, and many seen looting after this time would be shot on sight. We watched the Anaheim police roll out near military might in response to peaceful protests in the last few months, shooting rubber bullets at women and children. They WOULD be using live rounds in this scenario, and that would do a lot to both increase anger and quell protest/rioting.

There are also methods to prevent the spread of this further. Closing down communication lines would be the first step, even if it means literally destroying the infrastructure. The US government (and states independently) would consider themselves at war, and one of the first acts of war is to destroy communications. The cell phone towers would be taken out within 48 hours of this really kicking off, ending much of the communication the rioters rely on. Likewise, certain websites would be targeted, including Facebook and YouTube, with the government attending their offices and instructing them to block all access within the US. They would seize the companies if they had to, under anti-terrorism law.

A lot of this relies on the responses of police and government. If they mess up, or fail to act quickly enough (as we saw in London last year) it very quickly escalates into something extremely dangerous.

I generally agree with many of the psychological elements of the scenario, with mob mentality creating something horrific and becoming almost a perpetual cycle. But I think there needs to be more attention paid to how the government and police would end it. It seems slightly biased in that the author believes the government fails to act, when we know they would be, and probably very quickly too.

I also think there is a distinct right-wing, racist slant to this piece too, and that's unfortunate. You can see from the comments there that anyone questioning anything about it is labelled "leftie" and "liberal". Exposing another national divide capable of creating mass violence. It's not all about race, but plenty of right wingers seem to think it is.

Good thread! It's all fascinating, and I fear we'll be seeing such scenarios playing out soon.