BREAKING NEWS: NASA/NOAA Sends Geomagnetic Storm "WARNING"

As I see it, the solar max cycle is the most plausible event threatening massive change in 2012. we know it happens, we know it has the potential to cause very large scale destruction, and oddly enough, it is supposed to occur right around the end of our fabled 2012.

I have seen the northern lights in chicago this year. that was enough to send a shiver up my spine.
The reports are there, the history is there, and the timing is just right.

I say let it come, get back to those roots.

The Aurora Borealis was visible south of Edinburgh in the early hours of this morning. I'm a little further South in Northern England but it was cloudy here at that time.

Solar activity must be strong at the moment. I'll be looking out tonight to see if I can see anything. Hopefully I'll get to see the light show. If it ever stops raining

reply to post by Grifter81


Pics or it didn't happen!

Seriously... If you get the chance, shoot some pictures with as high a quality as you can manage. As I get more and more into graphics as a profession and the photography that comes along with it, it's fascinating to see that a real market exists for photos as stock to sell online. Several places handle photographs from anyone. Quality is important and content is everything of course and sky/cloud photos almost get ya nasty notes for even thinking about submitting in almost all cases.

But....I just thought it worth mentioning while storms are going on, Aurora photos aren't necessarily so common as to be worthless to shoot,. No one is getting rich..but I have a few friends at school that manage spending money off photos far less interesting and unusual for opportunity to capture than that.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Well I'm at work tonight on the night shift but I'll be popping out to look North at some point. I'm afraid the best camera I can manage is my phone but I'll have a go.

There were plenty of reports and pics of the Aurora popping up on my twitter feed last night and this morning.

reply to post by Aqualung2012

and oddly enough, it is supposed to occur right around the end of our fabled 2012.

No.

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013.

solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Thank you.

Actually the only thing that changes with an increase or decrease in solar activity is the odds of being hit by a truly dangerous event. It is quite possible that even in relative calm we could still be blindsided by a big one and in times of heavy activity we could be lucky and not have a big one come our way.

In fact, if you tell me the odds against an event happening today I can take the inverse of those odds and tell you the odds for it happening today.

The problem with odds is that for any event with a long term possibility the odds completely fail as a predictor in the short term.

Let's take the Yellowstone supervolcano, or any of the other supervolcanos around the world, and study the odds of it erupting strongly enough to cause the end of the world as we know it. In approximately the last 2 million years it has had a super eruption at about six hundred thousand year intervals and several smaller eruptions in the same time period. We are now at six hundred and forty thousand plus years since the last super eruption. The odds are 100% that it will have another super eruption at some point in the future. Or so say the vulcanologists. Since this is a long term threat, the odds fail us again as a short term predictor. Yellowstone could be erupting as I write this even though the odds are extremely low for that.

This principle applies to any long term threat. Take meteorite strikes for instance. scientists who study such things can give you fairly accurate numbers for the number and size of strikes over the next thousand or more years. But in the short term we could easily be blindsided by an asteroid coming from deep space and passing in close proximity to the sun on the way to earth. A non luminous object coming at us from the direction of the sun will be nearly impossible to see until it is almost on top of us. Thus, even if the odds are extremely small that such a thing will happen in the near future it will nevertheless be quite possible for it to happen at some point in the very near future.

So as you can see, all the information in the world is nearly useless for short term prediction of long term threats. It will only become a short term reality when we see it happening.

Leaders throughout the world have cancelled trips and meetings. Why? Have they gone to their underground bunkers in preparation for WW3 or a global economic collapse with the resulting ‘martial law’ and civil unrest? What do they know in their positions of power that we don’t?

______beforeitsnews/international/2012/10/world-leaders-cancel-trips-and-meetings-why-2445504.html

Connected??

Sorry...couldn't help it.

reply to post by happykat39

That is the rub, isn't it? Short term predictions vs. long term. Very short term, we can predict things half way for solar activity since NASA established true 360 degree visibility of the Sun (a recent first time capability). Though, that's still limited as it only covers what has already formed on the opposite side and is coming around to face us. That sure puts a hard time limit on how far into the future predictions can be made, huh?

Long term...as you note so well, almost all of it has happened before and eventually, will happen again. Quakes, Yellowstone, a certain mountainside in the Atlantic that'll slide into the sea someday and make a Tidal wave the Space Station should enjoy the view for. lol.... The thing that keeps me from losing sleep is that "will happen again" is running down a timeline already 4 billion years old...give or take. The odds in my lifetime are almost nil on any individual "mega-disaster" happening, I'd say.

Now I would note one thing that might be a little comforting in terms of one problem you bring up. That is a low reflective object coming from the direction of the Sun and the difficulties in seeing it. With the Satellites out now, as I understand it, we have one a considerable distance in front of Earth's orbital position and another considerably out behind our orbital position, keeping distance/pace with us as we go. So we have side-view ability to see something that would be hard to see from our perspective. Although, of course, even there. What would it buy everyone? A few days or weeks to mark the days for confirming impact? I'm not SURE I'd want to know...

There is also the way they name these things in space and that should give everyone a bit of a start to look at a catalog list recently. The date, for anyone not familiar, is when it was first discovered....as in, it was 100% and totally unknown to have existed prior to that. Now, check out how many are 2010/2011/2012 dated/named.

On one hand...Oh we're so good at finding them. On the other...OH MY there are SO MANY and passing by all the time, like dumping a trash bin into a wind tunnel. It's amazing we aren't hit hard more often.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Thank you again. Its nice to have a conversation where reason rules instead of rude ignorance.

And you are right about the newer solar watch satellite system, I had forgotten about that. It will buy us more time if something comes out of the sun, but still not enough if the object is capable of causing an ELE level event. I really doubt that we have a secret weapon against an asteroid strike of any size. Most of the secret weapons development is geared toward creating newer and better ways to wipe our sorry a$$es out instead of saving them.

Originally posted by OnWhiteMars

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by jassie51289

 

Geomagnetic storming reached G3 levels and subsided about 15 hours ago.
Geomagnetic activity does not cause earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, or any other weather fluctuations.

And we know this exactly... how? I thought geomagnetism and electromagnetism were concepts we haven't got a grasp on yet. And you seem to have a very strict and straight opinion about this, could share me the source so I can be as certain as you.

I'm still waiting patiently for a clarification. Phage, you are so busy proving others wrong that you forget to justify your own believes. Where do I find statements of geomagnetic activity not having anything to do with weather fluctuations?

reply to post by OnWhiteMars

Where do I find statements of geomagnetic activity not having anything to do with weather fluctuations?

You are asking a question based on an argument from ignorance (prove there is no affect).

Perhaps a better question would be where do you find evidence that geomagnetic activity has any influence on weather fluctuations.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Aqualung2012

 

and oddly enough, it is supposed to occur right around the end of our fabled 2012.

No.

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013.

solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...

Close enough...

and that's just another forecast. The point is that it may not require the MAXIMUM maximum to screw us up royally.

reply to post by Phage


With that answer you only dodge a bullet... The same way like women tend to do in a tough spot. They tilt the table, accuse you, and never answer. And you are right, I am ignorant. That is why I ask. And while you seem to have the answers, I am still patiently waiting for the clarification.

Originally posted by intrptr
reply to post by Mclaneinc

 

god knows what it does but I think its safe to say that 2012 has been a very very strange year weather wise ans seems to be getting worse, I don't know what's doing it but its a little frightening.

Your safe and frightened at the same time? God knows that it is very frightening and a little safe to say that your evaluation of weather and space science, god knows is getting worse every day.

Is that how you usually draw conclusions about other people and what they say?

No one likes a pedant.....

If you get your kicks repeating peoples words for pedantic effect then nice for you but at least get the facts straight, I didn't say I was safe and frightened about the same thing which is what you are sadly implying yet totally wrong.

"Is that how you usually draw conclusions about other people and what they say?"

Oh the irony.........Back at cha...

I can only think I hurt your feelings about Phage, get over it and stop crying...

Mods, if my post was off topic then by definition so was his, play by equal rules please.

I got an email notice from my cable company saying there would be outages due to the Solar activity and it would interrupt the satellite transmissions.

Sensational headlines = sensational crap.

It's gonna be business as usual. Now where did I keep my beer.........

Is it not possible, that the weather could be affected by the suns activity?

More so, isn't it actually probable, considering the sun effects nearly all of earths kinetic natural processe? Add to this the unstable, sensitive nature of weather patterns, among the forces effected by the sun... It shouldn't be too difficult to see it is possible, granted we do not have a scientific chart made up just yet, so some may follow thier kind and say "oh it simply cannot exist!"

I think logically it must certainly be accepted as a probability, and therefore admitted to serious study without any concern for the staunch remarks of the knee-jerking nay-sayers.

Also- after a long streak of sunshine, today its grey and rainy in Chicago... OoOoooOo! Coincidence? I think SO!

Originally posted by Hefficide
reply to post by jassie51289

 

Interestingly enough, I slept late today and woke up to tornado warnings here. (Georgia). Whether or not this is correlative I don't know. But interesting.

S&F

~Heff

AHA! i knew there was a reason why you stood out for me, you're from georgia aswell

also thanks for the warning OP, nothing too bad has happened yet (that im aware of) so thats good.

Originally posted by OrionHunterX
Sensational headlines = sensational crap.

It's gonna be business as usual. Now where did I keep my beer.........

I must say that I have to agree. The more someone is running in circles, waving their hands in the air hysterically and screaming that the end of the world is going to happen within minutes the less likely that there is anything more than paranoid hysteria being displayed over some trivial threat with about .001% possibility of happening.

I do have a question, maybe someone that has been keeping tabs on the GOES system might be able to answer. I noticed recently that there are two new additional readings on the solar X-ray sensor from the SWPC (www.solarham.net...).

Is this a new GOES satellite? Or is it an old one they were able to reactivate?