Italian Seismologists Could Get Four Years in Prison, page 1

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Topic started on 28-9-2012 @ 07:55 AM by RussianScientists

news.yahoo.com...

By Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience Senior Writer | LiveScience.com – Thu, Sep 27, 2012

Six Italian scientists and one government official could see four-year prison terms for manslaughter for allegedly downplaying the risk of an earthquake in the town of L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009.

Six researchers and the Department of Civil Protection downplayed the likelihood that a series of tremors that hit the city in early 2009 were foreshadowing a larger quake. On April 6, 2009, a magnitude-6.3 earthquake killed 309 city residents.

The trial, which began about a year ago, has worried scientists, who point out that earthquake prediction is not possible. But prosecutors insist that the trial is not about predicting the unpredictable. The scientists and officials had inadequately assessed the risk of a quake and given deceptive information to the public. The prosecution is asking for four-year prison terms for the accused. The trial is October 9th.

www.livescience.com...

www.livescience.com...

The above information is very valuable. It's valuable because the prosecuters are correct, the trial is not about predicting earthquakes - its about inadequately assessing the risk of a quake and giving deceptive information to the public, wherein 309 people died and many others were injured.

Its my opinion, that members of the USGS will be facing similar trial(s) here in the US and abroad at possibly International Courts.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:09 AM by WanderingThe3rd

Thats so retarded

There still isn't any good predictions methods for earthquakes, so how could you ever find someone guilty for of such pre·pos·ter·ous reasons.

Unbelievable

How can you warn the public about noting....

There are small tremors everyday that have no action taken towards them what so ever

edit on 28-9-2012 by WanderingThe3rd because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:13 AM by Wrabbit2000

Now this is one of the scariest things I''ve heard about. It was downright attention getting back when it started with this and the outcome it seems to be settling with makes the whole thing worse.

Science, of all areas, needs to have the ultimate freedom in talking about expressing ideas. Right, Wrong..whatever... It's how progress eventually comes from the noise, IMO. Going to prison for an educated guess on something impossible (at this point) to predict is just crazy. The next time people can't get a straight answer out of a scientist no matter how hard one tries...recall how these guys seem headed to actual prison for giving a straight answer this time.

99/100 times, they would have been accurate too. What a deal.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:16 AM by MDDoxs

I too am a bit divided on this issue. In my opinion, the prosecution needs to prove that there was a clear intent to deceive and manipulate figures for their own ends.

As the prosecution has alluded to, they are not concerned about the prediction aspect but the misrepresentation of the potential threat of an earthquake, which I find odd in itself. One could say any place in the world has some form of risk of earthquakes.

As an example, I live in Ontario Canada, we are not located on any kind of fault line, but sure enough we probably experienced 1 or 2 extremely minor earthquakes over the last 8 years as per my memory.

Seems like the easiest thing to have done was to say " yes there is a risk of a earthquake"

edit on 28-9-2012 by MDDoxs because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:19 AM by WanderingThe3rd

Originally posted by MDDoxs
I too am a bit divided on this issue. In my opinion, the prosecution needs to prove that there was a clear intent to deceive and manipulate figures for their own ends.

As the prosecution has alluded to, they are not concerned about the prediction aspect but the misrepresentation of the potential threat of an earthquake, which I find odd in itself. One could say any place in the world has some form of risk of earthquakes.

As an example, I live in Ontario Canada, we are not located on any kind of fault line, but sure enough we probably experienced 1 or 2 extremely minor earthquakes over the last 8 years as per my memory.

Seems like the easiest thing to have done was to say " yes there is a risk of a earthquake"

edit on 28-9-2012 by MDDoxs because: (no reason given)

my thoughts exactly, they would have to give risk assessments / information / warnings attributed to every minor earthquake for this to make any sense to me

but they don't, they only have their panties in bunch because 300 people died

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:21 AM by WanderingThe3rd

and if this is the case

i want the people arrested that were warned about purl harbor and did noting

i want the people arrested for the recent ambassador killing that were warned before hand and did noting

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:22 AM by RussianScientists

Originally posted by WanderingThe3rd
Thats so retarded

There still isn't any good predictions methods for earthquakes, so how could you ever find someone guilty for of such pre·pos·ter·ous reasons.

Unbelievable

No, indeed, your reply is based on BS from people that you believe in, because they state what they have stated, making you believe they are correct, and you have never challenged any of them; you tag along as a Sheeple, therefore you are a Sheeple helping them disseminate incorrect ideas; therefore people die needlessly in earthquakes with your help. Until you challenge those that say earthquakes aren't detectable before they strike, those in charge will just keep running with the ball.

My methods of early detection of latent energy before earthquakes strike are scientific in that its easily reproducable all over the world, that in fact the detection of energy build up of earthquakes as low as M1.5 has been proven, and that earthquakes of all magnitudes can be mapped before they strike.

Included in that map of any magnitude of earthquake will be its exact epicenter, exact depth to hypocenter/foci and its exact strike across the countryside; besides they can only occur at those locations when there is energy detected.

They really don't need to be predicted, they only need to be detected and then let the public know when there is danger from a large one that could kill or harm people. There is nothing preposterous about my knowledge, its scientific, its reproducable day-after-day, 24 hours a day, anywhere in the world; and that my Sheeple friend is believable since it is the truth.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:24 AM by john_bmth

Originally posted by WanderingThe3rd
and if this is the case

i want the people arrested that were warned about purl harbor and did noting

i want the people arrested for the recent ambassador killing that were warned before hand and did noting

What does any of this have to do with the Italian justice system?

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:24 AM by rickymouse

They shouldn't have downplayed it, they should have just stated there was an increased risk and said it like it is. I wouldn't have left if some scientist would have said there could be a possibility for a bigger quake in my area in the near future, but I would have liked to know. Problem comes when people panic when they hear something bad could possibly happen and this causes a lot of problems. Too many times credibility has been lost by science from saying things that never materialize. They could say that there may be an increase of a chance of an event happening, that would be ok.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:25 AM by RussianScientists

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

No... they actually got up in front of an audience and told them that there was no danger.

Being supposed earthquake experts, they needed to act like real scientists instead of big mouth idiots which endangered peoples lives; 309 dead because those people believed in them.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:28 AM by RussianScientists

reply to post by MDDoxs

They did deceive others, they got up in front of an assembly of people "AS EXPERTS ON THE SUBJECT" and told them they were "SAFE". A little later 309 people died.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:29 AM by RussianScientists

reply to post by WanderingThe3rd

You are correct, these people should be brough to trial.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:32 AM by RussianScientists

reply to post by rickymouse

You summed up the situation correctly. They should have told the people the real truth, that they are not experts at detecting the energy that is detectable before earthquakes hit by using a piezoseismic system, and that therefore they can't make a judgement call. They shouldn't have made they call that they made.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:33 AM by froglette

What would be their motive for knowing and down playing it?

Was it for real estate purchases?

Was it for Insurance purposes?

I am not clear that there was a motive or why?

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:36 AM by MDDoxs

reply to post by RussianScientists

Where I live is considered safe, it doesn't mean I couldn't end up dead from Some natural disaster.... To proclaim they are guilty based on the uncertain nature of earthquakes is fool hardy in my opinion. Slap them with a fine maybe, but four years in prison for a "act of god" as it were does not make sense to me..

edit on 28-9-2012 by MDDoxs because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:40 AM by RussianScientists

Originally posted by froglette
What would be their motive for knowing and down playing it?

Was it for real estate purchases?

Was it for Insurance purposes?

I am not clear that there was a motive or why?

The supposed earthquake experts didn't know, that's the point; but they went ahead and made a bad judgement call that was TOTALLY UNSCIENTIFIC in which 309 people died in belief of.

Their motive for down playing it was to make people believe that they were true experts on the subject and that everything was okay; but everything wasn't okay. If they would have been correct, then they would have been highly looked upon by others; that was their motive.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:42 AM by Wrabbit2000

reply to post by RussianScientists

Okay, I grew up and lived through multiple Earthquakes in Southern California. I now live just a long stone's throw from the New Madrid fault zone. I heard my whole childhood in California, after each moderate quake someone could feel, that pre-quakes DO happen but are rare...and are very unlikely so don't worry. That was stock-standard and routine.

SO MANY moderate quakes can be felt (a few a year anyway) in Southern California compared to how many actually go large and do damage, that playing it safe and playing UP the fact any one of those moderate quakes COULD foreshadow 'The Big One' or another MAJOR one would be totally irresponsible.

Of course some instances show pre-quakes happen. Japan is a real good example as they had small series in that area anyone can go look up in quake history archives....but just as often or more so, these little bursts come and go and nothing more ever comes, Thank God.

So...now, they SHOULD play fear monger, help worry everyone playing chicken little on a regular basis or face professional or personal ruin?

That's not science, that's propaganda. Science doesn't have pre-determined results in something impossible to predict with enough to go making idiotic warnings to the public about, nor would I ever want that to change. ....and yeah, it means once in a great while, they're wrong. So, they learn from it...not go to prison. Wow.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:48 AM by RussianScientists

Originally posted by MDDoxs
reply to post by RussianScientists

Where I live is considered safe, it doesn't mean I couldn't end up dead from Some natural disaster.... To proclaim they are guilty based on the uncertain nature of earthquakes is fool hardy in my opinion. Slap them with a fine maybe, but four years in prison for a "act of god" as it were does not make sense to me..
edit on 28-9-2012 by MDDoxs because: (no reason given)

For experts in the field of earthquakes to claim that there would be no further earthquake after other earthquakes had just struck there was a crime against science, since they didn't know the scientific truth; let alone the 309 people that died.

The man that started the ball rolling lost his only daughter (I think she was 9 years old), he had been at the assembly where these experts told him that everything would be okay. Later his daughter was crushed to death, not a pretty site to see when you have just been told by supposed experts that everything was hunkydory.

But... I do see your point of view as to where your thoughts are coming from MDDoxs.

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 08:59 AM by MDDoxs

reply to post by RussianScientists

I will agree to proclaim the statements they made as fact is truly not justifiable and will agree with you that some punishment is in order.

However, I would ask the following; would this public outcry be the exact same if a earthquake occurred and only one person died?

Don't get me wrong, the deaths are a horrible tragedy, but perhaps due a combination of contributing factors the death toll increased to the amount it did

reply posted on 28-9-2012 @ 09:01 AM by RussianScientists

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by RussianScientists

Okay, I grew up and lived through multiple Earthquakes in Southern California. I now live just a long stone's throw from the New Madrid fault zone. I heard my whole childhood in California, after each moderate quake someone could feel, that pre-quakes DO happen but are rare...and are very unlikely so don't worry. That was stock-standard and routine.

SO MANY moderate quakes can be felt (a few a year anyway) in Southern California compared to how many actually go large and do damage, that playing it safe and playing UP the fact any one of those moderate quakes COULD foreshadow 'The Big One' or another MAJOR one would be totally irresponsible.

Of course some instances show pre-quakes happen. Japan is a real good example as they had small series in that area anyone can go look up in quake history archives....but just as often or more so, these little bursts come and go and nothing more ever comes, Thank God.

So...now, they SHOULD play fear monger, help worry everyone playing chicken little on a regular basis or face professional or personal ruin?

That's not science, that's propaganda. Science doesn't have pre-determined results in something impossible to predict with enough to go making idiotic warnings to the public about, nor would I ever want that to change. ....and yeah, it means once in a great while, they're wrong. So, they learn from it...not go to prison. Wow.

I see how you are thinking Wrabbit2000.

The fact is that these experts should have told the scientific truth, and the scientific truth was that they didn't know if it was safe or not; instead they told everyone they were safe. They wouldn't be fear mongering if they had told the truth. Telling the scientific truth at a time when there is an assembly of towns people looking up at you for guidence is PROFESSIONALISM and not propaganda.

Science does have pre-determined results in earthquake prediction; and you are going to have to wake-up in the future because earthquake forecasts are going to be made on a scientific basis, and they will also be available 24 hours a day on TV, radio and the Internet; and these forecasts will be very accurate.

Major earthquakes and other destructive earthquakes getting ready to strike cities around the world will be entertainment and hard work to people around the world who will fly in to help others prepare for them as well as to experience them, while some people that look ahead will be trying to reduce their magnitudes; in effect control earthquakes, because earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in the future will be controlled to a certain extent using piezoseismology.

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