posted on Sep, 26 2012 @ 11:44 AM
So this morning's New York Times/Quinnipiac/CBS News poll show Obama up by 10 points in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania and 9 in Florida.
However, when you look at the data, it's not so clear:
In Ohio, the poll breaks down to 35% independent, 35% democrat, and 26% republican. When you skew a poll by 9% in favor of one party you will get
If you eliminate the democrat and republicans polled and look strictly at the independents (who in my opinion will truly determine who wins the
election) you have Romney ahead 47% to 46%.
In Florida, the poll breaks down 33% independent, 39% democrat and 28% republican. Again, if you remove the democrats and republicans you have Romney
ahead 49% to 46%
In Pennsylvania, the poll breaks down 27% independent, 39% democrat, 28% republican. For some reason the polling data does not break down
independents in PA (too big of a lead for Romney?).
So, this race is a lot closer than what is being reported.
You won't see these breakdowns in the MSM. They will only report the skewed/biased top numbers of the polls. They are assuming that the turnout will
be exactly the same percentages as in 2008. In 2008 a large number of republicans stayed home because they were disillusioned with McCain. Anyone
with an ounce of sense can see republicans are more energized than they were in 2008 and will turn out in much greater numbers this time.
However, as I stated earlier, I believe this race will come down to independents and the data slightly favors Romney at this point in
edit on 9/26/2012 by afeent1 because: link didn't work