2012: Obama Landslide Repeated?

2008: Obama 53% vs. McCain 47%

It's hard to fathom Obama getting that landslide in 2012. Lots of people are still out of work and WILL NOT be voting Obama this time around. Many pollsters this election cycle had oversampled Democrats by an average of +6%. Sure polling aggregates are accurate, but it's voter turnout that will decide elections. Sure, intrade has Obama up 2 to 1 on Romney. But, where are the "spikes" on intrade during this election cycle? Thus, voter turnout will be "key" in 2012. Major national polls indicate a "tie" a week before the debates begin. This is bad news for the incumbent Democrat president, as California and New York's dense population over exemplifies the importance of electoral votes and battleground state support. It comes down to who wants it more, Obama or Romney.

-au

ps-In 2012, the game is much different as Romney is a much more formidable candidate than McCain was in 08. Obama has much weaker support. Republicans are fired up and Romney is focused like a laser, literally. And Democrats have only their black caucuses fired up.

-Riddler: any thoughts?-

reply to post by alternateuniverse


I think Romney may have actually had a chance at one point. Until he opened his big fat mouth and straight up insulted veterans, gay people, women and then if that wasn't enough......47 percent of the rest of us.

Could go either way right now.....any of the following can or will swing it....

1) Debate Performance

And any of the following "october surprises)
2) If QE 3 money hits the markets it could have severe effects on the economy rather quickly. If gas is more than five bucks a gallon in the last week of OCT...it won't fair well for the admin.
3) If Israel gets fed up and hits Iran before the election, Obama will have to make a choice on whether to join them, support them, or denounce them. I think Bibi is ticked enough at him to put him in this actual position.
4) Normal presidential campaign revelations.


Your right though, Voter turnout will be high. It was high for democrats last time and not republicans. The Rs seem more galvanized though. I think it will be like Carter/Reagan in 80. Carter was up in the polls, and Reagan killed him.

I could also see Obama wining the popular vote, but not the electoral college,. THAT would be an interesting proposition.

reply to post by alternateuniverse

It comes down to who wants it more, Obama or Romney.

You're not a sports fan are you?
If that's what it comes down to, then Romney is finished. Obama's life is campaigning, not so hot on the governing, but he'd give speeches five times a day if he could manage it. Romney seems, whether it's good or bad, to have a little something else in his life. He's a more "balanced" person, if you can say that about a politician.

You've identified the two big edges for Romney in this campaign; Democrat enthusiasm is below Republicans', and Obama has, as much as he doesn't want to talk about it, a record that's hurting his popularity.

I worry about the close states, especially if they're important. Then we'll start getting into the missing ballot boxes, the interminable legal challenges, the votes of the corpses, etc. Whoever wins, I hope it's by a margin so large that voting "dirty tricks" aren't even considered to have a role in the outcome.

I hope I'm wrong, but if Romney is elected in a "squeaker," we'll have riots all over.

Originally posted by billy197300
reply to post by alternateuniverse

 

I think Romney may have actually had a chance at one point. Until he opened his big fat mouth and straight up insulted veterans, gay people, women and then if that wasn't enough......47 percent of the rest of us.

This so much, he pretty much killed his chances after that dinner party video was released. IMO it would take an act of "God" for him to win now.

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Right now, Obama is up by 5%.

After Romney speaks at the Debates, the GOP could be the third party after the Libertarians.

I think it'll be a landslide, unfortunately.

It seems Rommney is running his campaign in the spirit of Bush Sr '92 and Bob Dole '96.

Obama wins hands down.

Romney will stumble in the debate and his poll numbers will slip more. His PeeWee Herman partner doesn't play much of a role in Romney's fate.

Originally posted by Tw0Sides
reply to post by alternateuniverse

 

Right now, Obama is up by 5%.

After Romney speaks at the Debates, the GOP could be the third party after the Libertarians.

Obama will admit to a Kenyan birth certificate before he uses the word "terrorist".

The debates will seal Obama's fate.

On a serious note, to the OP's question; no. Obama won't repeat his landslide.

Domestic Policy?
Fail. High unemployment, record number of foodstamp users, drop in credit rating, ACA, Fast & Furious, Solyndra, GM, high food prices, high gas prices, and now QE3, because QE1, QE2 have failed as well as his keynesian attempts to prop the economy.

Foreign Policy?
Deaths, failures in Afghanistan, embassies burning, ignoring Israel, pandering to foregn leaders like the Muslim Brotherhood.

Oh yeah he has so much to talk about.


Obama after debating Romney

The only thing that got Obama elected was that he wasn't Bush 4 years have passed and that tripe is not working so well,.

The only democrat in recent modern history to go 2 terms was Bill Clinton and Obama is no Clinton,

Go ahead and count your chickens before their hatched but that dance aint over yet, and then considering how skewed the polling is anyone that confident of an Obama landslide is delusional,.

It aint over til its over.

reply to post by neo96


I agree. Obama hasn't proven squat, except alot of double-talk, and finger pointing.

We all know the old saying, about pointing, and having three pointed back at ya........

reply to post by alternateuniverse


If you compare the polls right now to the 2008 election, Obama is doing better against Romney than he was against McCain.

I know there is this right wing fantasy about every single poll being wrong, but this is just their desperation in trying to keep their voting base from completely losing hope and falling apart.

After the debates, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama opens up a double digit lead. Every time Romney gets a chance to talk to the American public, people dislike him more and more. His favorability ratings are not good, and they are going in the wrong direction.

Even the most hard core right wingers can't say that they actually like Romney, their rhetoric is only anti-Obama.

It really isn't very honest to try to claim that Romney is popular and is currently ahead in this election.

Charles1952,

I am not a big sports fan. But here is food for thought:
If the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party retains the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins.
news.yahoo.com...

Let's not forget, the president is also a well "balanced" person. He loves to golf and had played over 100 rounds of golf during his first term.
www.cbsnews.com...

Also, let's not forgot Romney is a businessperson. If you know of any, then you know they are very active and have little to no down time.

The enthusiasm gap is very debatable. I just don't see the same enthusiasm for the president this time around.
www.washingtonpost.com...

And then there's the Libyan assassination of Ambassador Stevens among many policy blunders.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

My prediction is 269-269. The HOR will decide the next POTUS. Obamacare will be dismantled. Freedom is never easy my friend.

-au

ps-Going through the Riddles of history, one's mindset is always focused on patterns and correlations. This current election appears to mirror one from 1976. In layman's term: Nixon = Bush, Ford = Obama.
reply to post by charles1952

Didn't Obama just raise over $100 million dollars last month??? And Democrats were mostly happy with their convention. I don't see his support low except for possibly some young people that might be wanting Ron Paul instead.

Fundraising:
Obama/Romney
May $60M/$77M
June $71M/$106M
July $75M/$101M
Aug $114M/$112M

Obamanomics:
Unemployment: 7.8% then, 8.3% now
Median income: $54,983 then, $50,964 now
Gas prices: $1.85 per gallon then, $3.78 now
National debt: $10.6 trillion then, $15.9 trillion now

Just a question, has there been any polls where Republicans have been oversampled?

Originally posted by CB328
Didn't Obama just raise over $100 million dollars last month??? And Democrats were mostly happy with their convention. I don't see his support low except for possibly some young people that might be wanting Ron Paul instead.

Obama will win by a landslide whether he gets the most votes or not. Everything about the man has been sneaky, dishonest, and non"transparent".

He wants to rule, I mean lead, America so bad that hell do anything to achieve it.

I can see him starting a war in our own country and suspending the election before he would lose his chance to keep his oval office chair.

If he is kept off the ballots in some states if you are a registered republican look to be rounded up and jailed on election day. (Okay that might be a stretch but with BO you never can tell.)

Originally posted by jam321
Obama wins hands down.

Romney will stumble in the debate and his poll numbers will slip more. His PeeWee Herman partner doesn't play much of a role in Romney's fate.

Biden can't run in both parties.

Originally posted by Nucleardiver
Obama will win by a landslide whether he gets the most votes or not. Everything about the man has been sneaky, dishonest, and non"transparent".

He wants to rule, I mean lead, America so bad that hell do anything to achieve it.

I have always seen Romney as a sneaky used car salesman.

But I have also always seen Obama as a amatuer thug.

Theories are always great in a political speech. But the reality is they don't work out so good.