Thing is, even if IDF is toughest bitches on planet - without air-cover, they are down.

The 60% damage rate to allied naval fleet is easy to calculate. Iran has 5000+ anti-ship missile systems along the coast. Iranians know these cannot be reloaded - so all of them are shot once, and then the crew runs. However, against the fleet of 200+ vessels, and kill rate of 75-80% in this sort of battle condition, would still leave 500-1000 missiles coming through.

Smallest vessels sink, large ones get damaged, but still floating.

Israel takes out Iran's offensive capabilities first.....then they bring in the bunker busters. And that is after they destroy Iran's ability to communicate with command and control in the theater of battle.

In nuclear detonation, main part of radioactive material comes down through the fall-out. Which in the worst case scenario is ... back home. That is really dependent on weather conditions.

Radioactivity won't stop any army. They can fight a day and two easily in any possible high exposure levels, and maintain battle condition for 1-2 weeks in medium rate exposure areas. But, in the explosion area - the enemy is eliminated.

On the other hand - if Israel would resort to nuclear - then they need to go all-out. Means, they need to target any possible WMD depot in the area, and braise for the worst.

Sure I know Phalanx. It shoots one target at a time. In average a battle ship has 2 of them, carriers 4.

So? You send 3:2, or a torpedo. Hence the overall hit-rate of 75-80%... right? In an all-in launch, they won't be able to shoot down the incoming targets in sufficient rate.

Originally posted by seabag
reply to post by deckdel

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I’m not trying to turn this into a pissing contest but do you know what the Phalanx is? You should read up on its capabilities before you do anymore math!

edit on 21-9-2012 by seabag because: (no reason given)

Originally posted by deckdel
reply to post by tvtexan

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The point is - if Israel would do an air-strike towards Iran - the planes would have nowhere to return to, back at Israel (airfields). During the mission - and thus long time after it - Israel would not have capability to provide local air-superiority. If this happens, the scenario above is possible (hard to tell if its likely).

Their only safe measure is missile attack, and take the burden of some civilian losses. But, they do not have enough missiles to cover the 3,600 potential nuclear sites in Iran, add to that need to hit several times (if using conventional war-heads).

THUS: Either Israel in its current noice making is a) playing internal politics or b) is suicidal.

edit on 21-9-2012 by deckdel because: (no reason given)

Originally posted by deckdel
reply to post by seabag

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Sure I know Phalanx. It shoots one target at a time. In average a battle ship has 2 of them, carriers 4.

So? You send 3:2, or a torpedo. Hence the overall hit-rate of 75-80%... right? In an all-in launch, they won't be able to shoot down the incoming targets in sufficient rate.