Iran and the Nuclear Weapon

I am starting this thread in order to get some feedback. I'm interested in what some of your opinions may be.

If you are an American, or anyone at all really who pays attention to what goes on around you and in this world of ours, you will know that the United States and Israel are lobbying extremely hard to deter Iran from pursuing their nuclear program ambitions. Iran claims that they are innocently trying to develop a nuclear program solely for nuclear energy. Israel and the US do not trust their intentions and claim that the leadership of Iran want nuclear weapons in order to use them against their enemies - particularly those two countries.

Now, we all know that the leaders of Iran are highly unstable and driven by hate and religious fervor, and nuclear weapons in their hands would be a huge hit to world confidence concerning the objective of peace and stability, especially in the Middle East region. It is debatable how close they are to their goal, and also the capability of their military.

Basically, my question is this: Why would the nefarious regime that runs Iran pursue a nuclear program for weapons in the first place, under the scrutiny of the whole world, when they could very easily obtain these weapons or the material for their construction through secretive means? There have been multiple reports throughout the years detailing the fact that many countries nuclear stockpiles cannot be tracked or have been lost. You also have the arms market being big business, and we have seen in the past countries or groups getting a hold of weapons they should not have ever had. I'm thinking of Osama acquiring a US military plane that was ultimately approved by the Pentagon. It seems as though it wouldn't be that difficult to obtain these weapons for Iran, considering their resources (oil, they have something everyone wants) and their allies, mainly Russia. A country that after the fall of the USSR reportedly lost track of much of their arsenal.

So why is Iran going the legitimate route under the watchful eye of others? If they motives are truly based on destructive means are they not going about it the wrong way?

reply to post by PatriotGames2
Well, first you must assume that the claims they are building nukes are accurate... There has not been any evidence presented that they in fact are, something US officials have admitted before.

Other than that, in their pursuit of nuclear technology not related to weapons, they are signers of the NPT and are legally allowed to it.

Israel is not a signer of the NPT, and they own 200 - 400 nuclear weapons. This is more concerning to me than what Iran may or may not be doing.

So why is Iran going the legitimate route under the watchful eye of others?

Maybe they aren't.

They have made some pretty bold statements in the last few days towards Israel and the US.
I'm just saying that they are acting pretty confident for just having conventional weapons.

Our intelligence services suck so bad, who really knows?
We didn't know about India or Pakistan having the bomb until they detonated one

My brother and I were just asking the same question a couple of weeks ago.
He mentioned something about tuns of nuclear waste off the coast of Russia. I don't have a link for it.
My brother and I agreed that it seems like it would be easier for them to obtain fuel from a lost load than to try and make it while under such scrutiny.

reply to post by Sek82


Yes, I am aware of these points and they are dead on.

In my personal opinion, Iran is not trying to build nuclear weapons, based on what you brought up which is that there has been no hard evidence or facts to solidify this argument. If I saw facts showing otherwise, I'd change my opinion. However, it would make sense for them to be looking into it, even if only so they could then have that back-up plan. They know their enemies have nuclear weapons, so why wouldn't they want to have them, as well? They seem to be putting themselves through a lot more trouble then necessary if they were just simply trying to get a hold of weapons in order to destroy Israel.

Even Ahmadinejad you cannot really trust because I'm guessing all his speeches have been translated by MEMRI, and if you know anything about them you know that they probably hold a slight bias. And I don't speak Arabic or Farsi and know no one who does so I cannot verify whether he wants to truly "wipe Israel off the map." The anger between Jews and Muslims in the region is not debatable, we know it exists. But when rhetoric is used to try and justify hostility towards one country or another it starts to get a little murky.

reply to post by tvtexan


Yeah, you make some valid points, especially considering India and Pakistan.

To me it seems more of a survival mechanism for them to talk that way. They have to talk tough or else they get pushed in the sand, so to speak, by the playground bullies. I am in no way saying they are the 'good guys' here or that even the US or Israel are the 'bad guys'. I think in geopolitics you don't really have good guys or bad guys, it is more about expediency.

But even if they attack Israel, they would be signing their death certificate. It is a tough spot to be in because it seems lose-lose. Either way they will be wiped out, even if they are able to take a shot at Israel. Or the US, for that matter.

Assuming they are working on building a nuclear weapon, could they be trying to do it to show the world they can? Would this accomplishment give them more "clout" on the world stage by joining the select few countries which have demonstrated the technical know-how of building and detonating a nuclear device?

Originally posted by LevelHeaded
Assuming they are working on building a nuclear weapon, could they be trying to do it to show the world they can? Would this accomplishment give them more "clout" on the world stage by joining the select few countries which have demonstrated the technical know-how of building and detonating a nuclear device?

i would be inclined to believe this one, OR maybe they really dont want to do it for the weapons.

maybe they want to do it on their own to prove they can and that they can do it without creating the weapon. to make everyone else look like an arse for not believing them.

but who knows?

reply to post by PatriotGames2


You're right, of course. If Iran were really after nuclear weapons, it would be a lot easier to acquire them than to build them from scratch. Regardless of what Israeli leadership says, if Iran were trying to build a bomb they would still be at least 18 months away from having produced enough weapons grade material.

It's just better strategy to say that Iran is trying to build a bomb if you want to use it as an excuse to start a war. If you accuse them of having bought a bomb on the black market, you have to answer the obvious question, why haven't they used it yet?

My biggest concern is that some country that has nuclear weapons will use one against the US and lay the blame on Iran. Ideal false flag.

reply to post by LevelHeaded


I think this is very likely their motivation, assuming they are working towards a nuclear arsenal. Being able to say that they are part of the club. The nuclear deterrent keeps them from being attacked verbally or physically and sets them on the high pedestal with the select few who have these technologies.

The first thing that always comes to my mind when they say they just want it for nuclear energy is, do they even use so much electric that they need nuclear generators?

they have a lot of oil reserves, they could run diesel generators 24/7 365 days a year and it won`t cost them anything and wont put a dent in their oil reserves.

Do they use so much electricity that they can`t pump enough oil the oil fast enough or buy enough diesel generators to keep up with demand for electric?

I don`t believe that they use enough electric to have a need for nuclear powered electric generators.

Originally posted by Tardacus
The first thing that always comes to my mind when they say they just want it for nuclear energy is, do they even use so much electric that they need nuclear generators?

they have a lot of oil reserves, they could run diesel generators 24/7 365 days a year and it won`t cost them anything and wont put a dent in their oil reserves.

Do they use so much electricity that they can`t pump enough oil the oil fast enough or buy enough diesel generators to keep up with demand for electric?

I don`t believe that they use enough electric to have a need for nuclear powered electric generators.

edit on 18-9-2012 by Tardacus because: (no reason given)

You would think that, but as it turns out in 2006 Iran was the second largest importer of gasoline, right behind the US. Problem is, they have almost no refineries. It must really suck to have all that oil, and still have to import gasoline. Besides, with nuclear reactors producing energy, that's oil they can sell because they don't have to use it themselves, so the reactors would be a good long term investment for the country. Of course, if I were in charge of Iran, I think I would be looking more towards developing solar and wind energy.

Of course, all of that is a moot point. If they continue to try to sell their oil for something other than US dollars, they are going to get "regime changed" just like everyone else.

reply to post by VictorVonDoom



Why spend Billions on Nuclear plants in an Earth quake prone country and not build oil refineries? Then they can export not just oil but also refined products?

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by VictorVonDoom

 

Why spend Billions on Nuclear plants in an Earth quake prone country and not build oil refineries? Then they can export not just oil but also refined products?

Good question. But then, why not do both? Besides, like I said, I think they have enough desert to seriously consider solar. But again, so does the US.

I suspect that Iran may feel that they would be less likely to be attacked if they had operational nuclear reactors. Any attacker would have to be concerned that an attack may lead to an accidental Fukushima style event. But maybe my tinfoil hat needs adjusting.

reply to post by VictorVonDoom


But...

Didn't Russia already offer them all the fuel rods they needed?

reply to post by SLAYER69


I don't know. I hadn't heard anything about it, but if you say so I'll believe it. You're one of my most admired posters. Don't often get a chance to tell people that.

reply to post by SLAYER69


OK, you made me do actual research

Yes, it does appear that Russia has offered to enrich uranium for Iran, and Iran has tentatively agreed. They are set to iron out the details next month. But it seems neither here nor there. If they want nuclear power for energy, the need the enriched uranium. If they want weapons grade material, they need working reactors to produce it. So it's no more or less proof that they want nuclear weapons.

Still hate doing research though. Can't I just form an opinion and ignore facts like everyone else?

Your speculation suggest that Some Dont have IT already..

You dont really need to make the Nukers .. you just need for Someone Else to get them ..

As you again suggested that Iran can Buy cheaper then Build .. .. um .. dont you think they did not think of that First .. LOL ..

Forget the Nukes guys .. Nobody is gonna use nukes unless its against an Asteroid. .. ( Fukushima is another story .. watch out for these things coming .. )

The Radiation Bombs are really a thing of the past.

Bios though..thats something else.

Be very aware of water and food supply ..

JG.

reply to post by PatriotGames2


Iran is attempting to build nuclear Weapons as both a method for Propaganda that Iran is a Nuclear Power and should be at the BIG BOY'S TABLE as well as using this as an effective Recruitment Method that it's QUD'S FORCE a number of 15 to 20,000 Iranians who travel to other countries to establish Terrorist Cells to spread the ISLAMIC REVOLUTION.

Fortunately...most Middle Eastern People have just about HAD IT with Religious Constraints and this has much to do with the INTERNET as well as SMART PHONES which Iranians can pierce their own Governments Internet Filters. There are Millions of IRANIAN AMERICANS and I know an Iranian American Family that own and operate a Breakfast/ Lunch Place where I go to eat. They have relatives in Iran that they have been able to communicate with via Smart Phones and Social Networks. They have told me that the vast majority of the Iranian People want good relations with the United States and in the past 5 years...the Iranians in Iran have been able to finally talk to the Iranian Americans in the U.S. and get the real truth...that they were WELCOMED IN AMERICA...and people judged them upon how they act and not what their religion is or where they came from.

When 9/11 happened...this Iranian American Family hung the Largest American Flag in town across the side of their shop. They became Naturalized Citizens and their Children were born as U.S. Citizens. They are Good People. They have told me that the Old Religious Guard holds control of the people by force and beats or Kills opposition. The Religious Guard pockets the oil Money and forces STONE AGE CONCEPTS down the throats of 21st Century People.

70% of the population of Iran is under the age of 30 years old. 94% of the population wants Good relations with the U.S. 96% of the Iranian Population wants a FREE DEMOCRATIC IRAN. Now a very small 1% of the population rule the other 99% with an Iron Fist.

The U.S. is hoping that the Pro-Democracy Movement can become strong enough to take control of the Iranian Government. If the Old Guard we to see this coming...they would order their Navy to Block the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Navy KNOWS that if they obey this order it is like SUICIDE as the U.S. Navy would OBLITERATE THEM! Thus there are on going secret Military to Military Talks. If the Iranian Navy STANDS DOWN this will give Iranian Military support to the Pro-Democracy Movement. The Iranian Air Force will also STAND DOWN as well as all but ONE ARMY DIVISION. The REAL MILITARY LEADERS of IRAN KNOW that if they attempt to Block the Strait of Hormuz which allows the majority of the Worlds Oil to pass...THE U.S. WILL NEVER ALLOW AN IRANIAN GOVERNMENT WITH NUCLEAR SITES TO STAY IN POWER. Thus the Iranian Military has a choice...STAND DOWN and become the defenders of a FREE DEMOCRATIC IRAN...or be OBLITERATED on land, sea and air. Only the Government Mouthpiece makes threats to the U.S. Military...the REAL IRANIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP wants no part of a WAR with the U.S. especially when it involves Nuclear Sites. The U.S. Special Forces and Rangers will seize all Nuclear Sites and ONE DIVISION LOYAL TO THE OLD GUARD will have to be made an EXAMPLE TARGET like the REPUBLICAN GUARD DIVISION LOYAL TO SADDAM. A wing of B-52H's passed over this Division at Night dropping Smart Carpet Bombing Munitions and 100,000 Men DIED! Not one Soldier Survived and the next Morning...ALL IRAQI DIVISIONS SURRENDERED. Iraqi Soldiers told of how even though they were Hundreds of Miles away...they could hear and see this attack. When word got out that the TOP DIVISION no longer existed...Soldiers striped off their uniforms and put on plain cloths and WALKED HOME! This will most likely happen to ONE DIVISION IN IRAN. When it comes to Nuclear Weapons and threatening to close the worlds oil supply shipping lane...the Iranian Regime is already DEAD! They just don't know it yet! I see the vast majority of the Iranian Military Standing Down and although the Deaths of 100,000 is unfortunate...these are the same people that put on street cloths and infiltrated Pro-Democracy Leadership Cells and Beat them to Death! Raped the young Female Students and Beat even their FAMILY MEMBERS! This Division will fight because it KNOWS that the Iranian People once FREE will come after them! A FREE IRAN could become a U.S. PERSIAN ALLY! This is a distinct possibility because of the Millions of IRANIAN AMERICANS who will be able to finally talk to their loved ones and tell them the truth. Iran's Nuclear Program will be exchanged for AID and the Ramifications of an IRANIAN/AMERICAN SECURITY TREATY would send A RIPPLE EFFECT THROUGH OUT THE WORLD! It would cut off support for many Terrorist Groups and since Iraq has a Majority Shiite Population that has radical elements such as Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr..continued
S.I.

reply to post by SplitInfinity

Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr....an VERY RADICAL ANTI-AMERICAN PAIN IN THE ASS...will no longer have support as He HID in IRAN which is Shiite and most Shiites in the past were very fanatical as the Islamic Revolution of 1979 is an example as well as al-Sadr...stirring up Iraqi Shiites who at first we OVER JOYED that the SUNNI SADDAM was forced out of power by the U.S. Military.

If IRAN becomes a U.S. ALLY...and I find this HIGHLY PROBABLE IF....the on going U.S. Military to Iranian Military Leadership Talks accomplish their GOAL....which is....IF the Iranian Navy...as it is most likely an incident will occur at SEA as only the Military Ships and other Oil Tankers will be there to witness what actually happened and who started what....if the Iranian Navy REFUSES to follow orders to Block the Strait of Hormuz and STANDS DOWN...the U.S. Military will promise NOT TO ATTACK the Iranian Navy. The same goes for the Air Force as well as Iranian Army...SAVE ONE DIVISION. That ONE HIGHLY PAID DIVISION LOYAL TO THE OLD RELIGIOUS GUARD. The U.S. Military is informed by the Iranian Military that the Order has been given. The U.S. Military Air Drops Thousands of Special Forces and Rangers who secure and seize IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES and we know where they all are. Iran's Military STANDS DOWN and this gives legitimacy to IRAN'S NEW DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT as they are backed by their own Military. IF THE ONE ARMY DIVISION OF ISSUE ATTEMPTS A COUNTER ATTACK OF U.S. SPECIAL FORCES AND RANGERS TASKED WITH SEIZING IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES...A Wing of B-52H's will fly a Mission at Night and OBLITERATE THAT DIVISION! Continued....S.I.