reply to post by CALGARIAN
China has its own interests in the region, as well as numerous border disputes with India. The two countries also fought a war in 1959 over south
Tibet. India has a much stronger armed forces than Pakistan, and is China's main rival on the continent.
China tends to support Pakistan in Kashmir, at least so far as saying that any general mobilization or aggressive action on India's part towards
Pakistan would necessitate China sending troops to the region, and possibly acting on territorial claims of its own. China's assertive posture in
this regard has tended to give India pause.
This is a very tense situation. These border skirmishes in Kashmir happen frequently, but they are ALWAYS dangerous and hold the potential for
disaster. Military analysts around the world generally regard the likelihood of a nuclear exchange resulting from a general war between the two
nations as 'High'. India and Pakistan have fought three major wars in the last six decades, but none since Pakistan tested its first nuclear
The United States has a cool but warming relationship with India, and is heavily invested with the regime in Pakistan, which was once an ally and
dependant of the United States. In this regard, The US acts as a moderating influence on India, while at the same time (due to recent events) it has
lost most of its control over Pakistan's actions. This makes for a complicated diplomatic situation. The US has been a force for destabilization
within Pakistan, but the US can be said to have a stabilizing effect on relations between India and Pakistan.
The one thing that changes everything is the new tensions between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. With China (and the US)'s
attention focused on the South China Sea, both of the moderating influences on India's response to provocation are diluted. This is intensely
Pakistani provocations in Kashmir are common, but it's not very often that India retaliates or ratchets up the rhetoric. They are doing that this
time, likely because they feel (rightly) that the situation in the South China Sea gives them more latitude of action.
When you add to all of this the likelihood of an Israeli action in Iran before November, things become even more grim. There is a corridor of tension
stretching from Libya to Japan that is building inexorably and which threatens to overwhelm the American capability to act effectively and
proportionally in all of these areas.
This is without a doubt one of the most interesting and intense moments in international relations since the Russia-Georgia war.